EL NINO

Scientists are forecasting a ‘very strong’ El Niño in 2027 based on measurements so far in the Central Pacific Ocean. So far away and whilst it may not have a major impact on the UK it seems likely that it will influene our weather. The Committee for Climate Change has advised the government to prepare for 3 eventualities; heat, flood and water shortages. We have already had water outages in the south east this year and it is not really hot yet and the “heat wave” was just a few days! Hospitals and care homes may find that air conditioning is not an option, but essential. Schools could conduct lessons outside, but with little shade they may need to invest heavily in sun block. How about funding schools to cover playgrounds at a height with a solar panel roof that would provide shade, heat in winter and air con in summer? Tax deductable for local businesses if they also provide work experience. Flooding is likely, and whilst some extreme storm events are inevitable and unavoidable, people in at risk areas, probably at least 5 million homes! should be advised on how to protect their properties and mitigate the damage. Weather forecasting is excellent on a regional basis but small differences occur between juxtapositioned villages! So crying wolf is to be avoided. Storm damage in coastal areas is also likely – warmer temperatures will cause sea level to rise. So the three P’s possible options are Prevention (not generally possible within the present time frame; Protection (possible individually but not possible if widespread) and Prepare?Mitigation (always the last option).

And meanwhile a report suggests that net zero is worth £100bn a year and employs over 300.000 people whose earnings are 11% higher on average than the countrywide average. So fuck of Farage and doomsayers! Reports also suggest that youth unemployment will hit high levels next year – why not offer firms a tax break to employ youngsters to instal solar panels, heat pumps and insulation – the maths is beyond me, but taking the young off benefits, and training them at the same time would seem to be a no brainer?

A FLEDGLING ROBIN

made me realise that although I live in the countryside, people have no idea about the wonders of the world outside their screens and cars. How many people can name 15 native trees (there are 42), 30 bird species (600 +), 30 flowers? Maybe Big Yellow Taxi, Joni Mitchell, should become an anthem for schools? Every school should have a garden – wildlife is suffering from ingeneous chemicals and sterile land. Sorry neighbours – a few pretty plants do not compensate for the land obliterated for you house to be built (and the fucking road outside. When did we stop caring? Seeing a kingfisher is one of the highlights of my life, alongside seeing terns on the beach at Seaford whilst everyone else just ignored them. An adonis butterfly is definitely a thing of beauty. I am no David Attenborough, but I can appreciate and name most of the wonders around me, and I feel sorry for those who do not!

There was a quote I saw once which compared a person who could walk 5 miles to a market and could name every plant, flower animal and insect; and one who visited world prestigeous galleys and museums. Who was the more enriched or wiser. A no brainer!

VINDICTIVE

America bombs a new bridge in Tehran – maybe because then can – no strategic gain, but it will piss off Iranians. There is no apparent objective of military value in taking out key infrastructure. His blockade of Cuba is also proving to be ineffective, Russia is delivering oil whilst China is providing solar panals and solar batteries. Forcing Cuba to realign with Russia and China is counter productive in geopolitical terms, it is like having a vast aircraft carrier in America’s backyard. So Trump’s bully tactics and posteiring are proving to be not only embarrassing but also counterproductive. And the Epstein files are not going away and domestically he is losing support whilst the opposition Democrats are being given time to reorganise after there disarray and disaster at the last election. His tariff war on just about every other country has resulted in a drop in USA manufacturing (100.000 fewer jobs and an increased deficit in trade of manufactured goods). Inflation is in the pipeline and we are not even half way through his second term.

Meanwhile back in the UK Farage is fighting to offset yet more bad publicity created by Reform candidates, I so hope Reform fades in the May council elections and we can stop seeing tadface on our media outlets.

Food supplies are said to be at risk of high inflation due to the increased cost of fertilisers. Organic producers will obviously be less affected. And yet the government wants to build on green belt land and farms? Why are our best brains not looking at the input and output elements of food production?

And children have used swarming tactics to basically riot and shoplift in Croydon. The interesting thing, to me, was that they mainly targetted food outlets like McDonalds, rather than electronic stores to loot! Another example of our bored and disadvantaged and disaffected youth. Bring back the youth clubs and virtually free sports clubs. The economic and health savings would be astronomic!

BONKERS

Daily shite leads by saying Trump’s taunt reveals that Starmer does not have a plan. How can he have a plan when Trump moves the goalposts on a daily basis. The Telegraph quotes Sea Lord as saying that the navy is not ready for war – why should it be? And who supported the government is underfunding the armed services anyway. So the press are like headless chickens clucking around with no idea of which direction to take. But bonkers gold medal yet again goes to Trump for his crass comment that the UK should get its own oil. Actually we do, and most of it comes from Norway you moron! There was no problem in the Strait of Hormuz, in fact most people could not place on a map before the orange man baby threw $15b of his armed toys at Iran. And still the king is going to America to meet the wanker, I am sure that Trump will either wallow in the reflective glow of a monarch for life or try to humiliate him – and Charlie is not the sharpest knife in the box!

The UK is one of the most nature depleted areas of the world and yet twats are still shouting about ending our move to net zero. I will probably never see a merlin, large heath fritters or a burnt orchid but I am aware of the symbiotic relationships between species and know that a decline in one species can have catostrophic impacts across the food chain. Also there is a reported increase in children with mental problems; greater exposure to our green and pleasant land would go a long way. Many children will never see a cow or sheep or chicken or lamb other than in food. Making a daisy chain should be part of the natural curriculum together with appreciation of the shapes clouds make!n

TRAITORS

The British press unite behind Trump in condemning Starmer for not wholeheartedly supporting the illegal war with no purpose in Iran. Complaints made about a warship in dock for maintenance and complaits that only one destroyer is being sent to defend the base in Cyprus. And the government is paying taxpayers money to arrange charter flights for tax dogers to get home. And the Guardian has a full page about 9 killed in a missile strike by Iran, proportionately there should be 90 pages dedicated to those killed in US/Israeli attacks. Can we have headlines that state clearly who started this war?

In the UK it is the older generation who support military action (most of whom have held a gun in anger). And a what if – ‘What if governments spent as much money on environmental improvements and healthy lifestyles?’. Trump has demanded that all members of NATO spend 5% GNP on defence. Defence or attack? I am no historian but! I am aware that the best castles were never attacked because it was pointless. We are sending a destroyer to Cyprus to protect a British base there – why do we have a base there? Is it to defend the UK or to threaten others? Is it to protect British investments? As far as I am aware Cyprus is dominated by Greece and Turkey with a large Russian investment! Britania no longer rules the waves, thank goodness say many indigenous peoples, so why pretend. Investing in air defence systems might be sensible in an unstable world created by Trump. And we obviously need to have troops to support our friends and neighbours in Europe – but we do not need attack capability, especially to support the madman in the White House.

Labour should announce a compulsory enlistment process for those arreas that have a combined total of 52% or above who vote for Reform or Conservative!

WEATHER and Trump!

Met Office long range weather forecast is …. more rain for the next month!. Here it has been damp rather than downpours, but the garden is soggy! Climate change is happening, but it is not coming as a hurricane or heat wave, just little by little. Every year seems to be getting a little warmer and still we have fuckwits like Farage and his loopy crew in denial. Major events are no longer big news, floods in the UK are almost ignored – partly down to the Environment Agency’s efforts, but 6 million people in the UK are at risk of flooding. But the economy is more important than our childrens lives according to the fuckwits. In the last 25years counntries like UK,USA, Germany, France, Japan have all seen drops in emissions but their economies have also grown. But the argument that whilst China pollutes the rest of need not bother is a pathetic one. They have the fastest growing green energy sector anywhere, and have lifted 10’s millions out of absolute poverty.

Unfortunately politicians are preoccupied with the sleaze surrounding Epstein and his sordid mates. Even Trump has been relatively quiet, apart from an outburst about Bad Bunny’s performance at the Super Bowl (which Trump did not attend ‘because it was too far’, rather than that it was in California, a state he wants ICE to invade). he has also not ordered the bombing of any foreign country this week so far!

Just noticed this on p26 of the Guardian – Musk cuts Russian military access to Starlink – a revalation of who is in charge ? And although at No.4 in the list of richest, Larry Ellison of Oracle should be watched – his son controls major media outlets like Paramount Global and many others. and have pursued Warner Bros. Discovery, aiming to control major assets like CBS, Paramount Pictures, HBO, CNN, and potentially TikTok’s U.S. operations. I have no doubt that Musk was vying for a leading role in media with his acquisition of Twitter – but he seems to have been out manoevred.

I got give some eggs this morning – I love the countryside!

EPSTEIN FILES

So the DoJ is witholding a further 2.5 million pages of documents, having released over 3 million today, 6 weeks after a deadline laid out by a court. What is there to hide? Documents released are mainly aimed at names already known like Andrew his are particularly damning, as are the unsubstansiated accusations against Bill Gates. Trump is mentioned numerous times but nothing particularly damning – what is in the 2.5 million? and why is it being withheld? I suppose evidence that your President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is a paedophile could be construed as a national security risk! Although any level headed person knows that Trump is a risk to humanity! What the files do reveal is that the power exerted by many men (usually white and at least middle aged), is exerted in the form of dominence over young and often vulnerable young girls. Should I have include d young women in their sordid abuse of power – probably, having never used (word used is deliberate) a prostitute I am unaware of the circumstances but ……. ? This is a clear case of white rich men exerting power over younger girls and women and reveals the lack of morality that is associated with extreme wealth in many cases.

Quite why the Daily Express leads with “Time to get Brexit done properly” , rather than the above is beyond me, other than the Express being formerly owned by a pornographer. Brexit was a huge mistake and one which the majority of the public would like to see reversed – but maybe not the geriatric readership of the Express.

Climate change – it is estimated that 6.3 million properties are in danger of flooding, rising to 8million by 2050. So at least 10% of the UK population. Extreme rainfall is becoming less unusual so flood prevention schemes are only viable in vulnerable places like the Somerset Levels; other places are less easy to protect from an intense downfall, especially in urban concrete jungles. Increasing the paving of gardens for parking has made a significant difference to the ability of water to infiltrate. The pipes used by the Env.Agency to drain the levels last week were fuck off huge! A localised storm in the spring after a wet month could bring huge damage – especially with houses being built on floodplains. Your house insurance will rise – even if you are not affected. But all is ok – Farages Reform Party says climate change is a con.

JUST ANOTHER DAY

England changed its calendar in 1752, adopting the Gregorian calendar by dropping 11 days in September (making September 2nd the 14th) and moving the start of the new year from March 25th to January 1st, bringing it in line with most of Europe. Richard Osman stated that the latter makes more sense – I disagree! The 25th March (Lady Day) makes much more sense for the new year; new growth and spring, the possibility for an early b-b-q and planting new seeds for future growth. NYDay is also too close to Xmas so a fixed holiday replacing the archaic Easter rabbit nonsence would be welcome. Another thought – the spread of colds and ‘flu’ would be reduced with a spring festival. Also the financial new year is 6 April which probably dates back to the old calendar? The more I think about it, the more attractive a spring festival is. Most people have no daily connection with nature so a festival rejoicing in the wonders of the environment would be great.

Whilst on dates ! – could St.Valentines Day be made a public holiday with a view to increasing the birth rate? Just a thought.

RANDOM STUFF

Firstly the ‘flu epidemic? Stats show that it is mainly children. Most of us oldun’s have has the stab! My wonderful grandchildren came up yesterday and we went to the park where they spent an hour playing on a pirate boat. I was sad not to see any other children there. there are a variety of activities from traditional swings, a basketball hoop, to a mini zip wire and unquatifyable others! It made me think how everything available for children is monetised or non-existent. The football field in the village is surrounded by a high fence and locked (supposedly to keep out dogs! The local swimming pool has closed, tennis is only available via a club. The old “Strawberry Line Railway Line’ is paved and suitable for cycling and surrounded by scrubland and woods for most of its path between the local villages – but it is rare to see a child! No wonder they get obese and stuck in rooms with their phones and online games. My generation has overseen the deprivation of childhood from our young. Hey government – do not increase benefits for the young, just give them free access to meaningful activities and free bus passes to get there.

Nothing much else to report! I might make some lemon curd as I have just had a delivery from https://www.crowdfarming.com/en – a brilliant company that supports organic farmers and cuts out the supermarkets. I get lemons, avocados, clementines, garlic, olive oil and more from them – highly recommended.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

I have noticed that many people see things differently, whether it is Aaron who is colour blind or relatives. Take a football match – Chelmsford City played W-s-M and the away team won 2-0. I saw the highlights and thought City were a bit unlucky – someone else said City were “awful”. Footballers are increasingly being measured in many different ways. Mo Salah is castigated after not scoring for a few games. Not everything can be measured – confidence, luck for instance. And this is where my thoughts on AI come in. Many things in life occur due to unforseen circumstances, luck and confidence. Historically I think of Agincourt and the defeat of the Armarda, both relied on the luck of the weather, as have many things in history. AI could now factor in weather forecasts, but in the real world not everything can be assessed and quantified. As a teacher I was very aware of the attempts to set targets and ignore unquantifiable aspects. How did Covid affect students education? No statistical method is foolproof. Mark Twain popularized statistical analysis in his 1907 autobiography, writing that while he found arranging figures difficult, the remark “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” was often relevant. 

So my point (eventually!) is this. AI can only analysise what is there on the worlds computers. Can it identify sarcasm or ‘winding up statements’, Proponents of AI laud the defeat of humans in games with multiple opportunities – but can it cope with infinite opportunities?