Category: Weather and climate

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OCEANS

11% of the worlds population live less than 10m all, 30+% live within 100 km of the coast. Relevant why? The rate of sea level rise has more than doubled from 2mm in 2015 to 4.3mm in 2023. You do not have to be clever to work out that this 16% rise is of concern! Just stupid to ignore it! So in 10 years we may expect a 50mm rise in sea level – not a big deal, until there is a storm; or you live in an area of coastal erosion; or on islands like Marshall Islands, Maldives, Kiribati or Tuvalu. There will be no quick fix available – water takes longer to warm up (and thus expand). Ice on land in the form of glaciers is continueing to melt adding to the volume, Greenland’s ice cap is melting – farming is taking place where ice once ruled – mining is now possible and the lion riding clown who is arguably the most powerful man on the planet is a climate denier. So the seas that cover about 75% of our planet are getting warmer – that means more storms and most importantly a disruption to ‘normal’ weather. Extinction Rebellion and other protestors have received jail terms for protesting in a peaceful, yet disruptive manner – racist rioters protesting about non-existent perceived wrongs go unpunished as do those who incite them. How many children in the future will ask their parents and grandparents ‘What did you do in the climate crisis?”. People do care – 75% say they recycle (although practise means that only 46% of waste is actually recycled! despite us not having mapped even 30% of the ocean floor – our oceans are vitally important to our existance!

Is there a republican plot against Trump? There must be! Whilst he has surrounded himself with fools and sycophants surely some one could tell him not to be an ass? 95% of republicans are still voting in his favour? Hopefully many will find themselves unemployed in November? The only British Prime Minister to completely humiliate themselves was the lettuce (Lis Truss). All others have at least had a modicum of decorum?

Last thought – will Trump celebrate FIFS’s award of a Peace Prize, by launching missiles against Iran, or just enhancing the misery on Cuba? Or maybe invading Greenland or buying the Chagos Islands, or maybe with another exillerating AI induced patheticogram?

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EL NINO

Scientists are forecasting a ‘very strong’ El Niño in 2027 based on measurements so far in the Central Pacific Ocean. So far away and whilst it may not have a major impact on the UK it seems likely that it will influene our weather. The Committee for Climate Change has advised the government to prepare for 3 eventualities; heat, flood and water shortages. We have already had water outages in the south east this year and it is not really hot yet and the “heat wave” was just a few days! Hospitals and care homes may find that air conditioning is not an option, but essential. Schools could conduct lessons outside, but with little shade they may need to invest heavily in sun block. How about funding schools to cover playgrounds at a height with a solar panel roof that would provide shade, heat in winter and air con in summer? Tax deductable for local businesses if they also provide work experience. Flooding is likely, and whilst some extreme storm events are inevitable and unavoidable, people in at risk areas, probably at least 5 million homes! should be advised on how to protect their properties and mitigate the damage. Weather forecasting is excellent on a regional basis but small differences occur between juxtapositioned villages! So crying wolf is to be avoided. Storm damage in coastal areas is also likely – warmer temperatures will cause sea level to rise. So the three P’s possible options are Prevention (not generally possible within the present time frame; Protection (possible individually but not possible if widespread) and Prepare?Mitigation (always the last option).

And meanwhile a report suggests that net zero is worth £100bn a year and employs over 300.000 people whose earnings are 11% higher on average than the countrywide average. So fuck of Farage and doomsayers! Reports also suggest that youth unemployment will hit high levels next year – why not offer firms a tax break to employ youngsters to instal solar panels, heat pumps and insulation – the maths is beyond me, but taking the young off benefits, and training them at the same time would seem to be a no brainer?

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WEATHER

A couple more days of very warm and then back to low twenties/ high teens here. I am sure my tomato plants have grown an inch overnight!. So everything is watered – just the bedroom plants to go!

Water company woes continue with South East Water customers being denied supply in several areas. I accept their argument that if everyone in an area uses a hosepipe at the same time, pressure will drop. So what do they do about it – absolutely nothing but whinge. Perhaps supplying water butts and asking people to stagger use would be an idea? Time to nationalise the lot!

Elsewhere – Trump is desperate for a peace with Iran, Israel wants to continue fighting as its supporters in the USA want. Ebola is spreading due to local agencies being overwhelmed – Common Donald do something useful for just once in your life!, Fot that measure also add in the tecbros! they all have a few $billion to spare. Farage is digging himself into a hole of his own making as he claims to have been hacked. My immediate answer is – did the hacking reveal that you have been lying? and secondly – show the evidence! If Reform were a true party he would be vulnerable; but it is solely owned by Farage, so they cannot get rid of him until he finally destroys himself with his pedalling of hatred. With Farage gone his lieutenants will also flee to Dubai or wherever. The thousand or more councillors will be faced with the insurmountable problems their forebears faced, but without a philosophy or any idea about how to cope! This is based on evidence from numerous councils. Elected on basic racism, they have no clue.

So labour should not panic MrNiceguy, but oh so boring, will go. Andy Burnham is the only one with a hope of creating the hope the public want/demand. If he does not win the byelection I really believe Zak Polanski is our only hope of a better future.

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FOOTBALL POLITICS!

Interesting theory in the Observer today regarding the possible poisoning of Gordon Banks in the 1970 World Cup. Reputable sources have backed up the theory that US agents poisoned the England goalkeeper to support the Brazilian dictator at the time. I had been aware of Bobby Moore’s arrest on trumped! up charges of shoplifting at the time but American perfidy has known no bounds and was followed by the contra scandal whereby $millions were diverted to right wing rebels in Nicaragua and El Salvador. Is this World Cup safe from political interference? With Trump in charge nothing is unbelievable!

There were nearly 300000 abortions in the UK in 2023 – I guess the number has fallen, after all ‘who would want to give birth after 14 years under the tories’!. The relevence of this is that the Reform candidate in Makerfield has referred to abortion as ‘cowardly murder’. My personal view is that nearly 300000 women will have made a difficult decision and should be supported – not vilified. And also what man has a right to even comment on the matter – no man has to bear the growth of a human being in their body and the dangers that can ensue. Modern life is fraught with difficulties and it is usually the mother who bears the responsibility for parenting offspring (my personal experience as main carer came as youngest daughter reached teens – although the reality was probably 10 years earlier). My personal experience is much more complicated though! I was 22 and my wife to be 17 when she became pregnant; I immediately gave her the option of whether to have an abortion, have the baby or get married – she chose the later; and I am so grateful that she did – my daughter is smart (has a doctorate no less) and healthy and basically all round wonderful! As the two following siplings are (both unplanned) but wonderful. So I did not follow the abortion path and have no regrets, but I would never impose the responsibilities of parenthood on any women, man or couple.

Trump continues to up the ante about Cuba despite only 15% being supportive. Radio reports suggest an agreement with Iran that could end hostilities. It will be interesting to see how he spins his humiliation with this. The mid-term elections are 6 months away but Republicans are fearful!

And finally social media – it was not designed to deal with the angst of teenage years, but has been monetised to take advantage of that angst, with sometimes fatal results. Just like America where you cannot ban guns because 200 million peole have them, banning social media will not work, but enforcing legislation to take down harmful media posts immediately is possible and essential. The web site owners talk bollox about what they do – they are so fucking rich that they could … police the web properly, rather than pay people to justify their inadequacy!

Have a lovely time in the sunshine if in the UK – obviously it is not climate change that is resulting in the hottest May on record!

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PERFECT

It looks like a perfect end to May and the start of June. High pressure is likely to continue to bring fair weather for most at first. Rain and showers are still possible at times, mainly across Northern Ireland and Scotland. As we head towards mid-June, more mixed conditions are likely with spells of rain and showers. Drier weather is expected between any bouts of wetter weather. These drier interludes will tend to last longer across the south and east of England. Temperatures are most likely to be near or slightly above average overall, with some warm or very warm weather possible. Ideal for plant growth and also keeping the water butt topped up!

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EL NINO

Meteorologists are predicting this to be ‘an El Niño” year. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring every 2-7 years. It triggers global climate shifts, including increased global temperatures, drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, heavy rain in South America, and warmer, drier conditions in parts of North America, typically peaking around December. 

El Nino – What is it

So I am predicting a hot summer in the UK followed by a cold winter. So my tomatoes and chillies should flourish. And the solar panels being installed on houses should start paying back almost immediately. Why are right wing politicians so anti green technology? At present carbon burning provides 50% of electricity generation and 75% of total energy. So we are already providing ourselves with energy free from geopolitics. We can and will do better – and petrol is likely to remain at high levels £1.60 ltr yesterday. Iran has nothing to gain by a quick settlement and has shown that it can still control the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the wealth of the USA and the trillions poured into its military, it seems unable to create a safe passage for the 850 vessels trapped – it escorted 2 ships through the Strait yesterday. Airlines in the UK are being allowed to keepnlanding slots if they cancel flights -expect much whinging in the press about cancelled flights. Charter flights should be ok as they are usually full, but scheduled flights where there are multiple flights a day seem vulnerable. Will private jets be subject to rationing? Will cheap flight offers become rarer?

But enough negative news – we are in May and everything is blooming here – hawthorn (may blossom) is dying back, my wisteria is blooming and the honeysuckle is adding to the fragrancy. Rosemary is in bloom and attracting insects. Lemon balm is gorgeous and looking and smelling beautiful. And my youngest daughters glamping business in Cornwall is blooming, as it should it is quality! Tylda Tents. visit and enjoy.

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ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION

I knew this as the North Atlantic Drift. Scientists have revealed that studies show this circulation to be in danger of collapse due to climate change. Does it matter? Well colder winters and summer drought combined with sea level rise of 50-100cm would have a severe impact on life in Europe and elsewhere. How quickly is it occurring – warnings are of collapse in 75-100 years. The ecological impact and thus food supplies would be catastrophic. But Farage, Trump and Badenoch continue to preach ‘drill baby drill’ with the same ignorance as Marie Antoinette “let them eat cake’ delusion. The UK has cut emissions by 50%, but the real figure is nearer 20% when the cost of transporting manufactured goods is included. We still rely on fossil fuels for 75% of energy consumption. The traditional electricity grid is no longer fit for purpose. Basically the problem the lack of battery storage which leads to electricity generation by solar and wind being shut down. Many cars are parked up and only used for commuting; and charged at night when renewables are often unavailable. Covering car parks with solar panels and adjacent wind turbines would enable charging during the day, domestic garages could be used for batteries instead of the crap normally stored there! I estimate that I, a single old person living in a bungalow could be self sufficient with the use off solar panels and a heat pump and batteries. So no fuel bills ever! And stop the rip off from privatised water companies and utility bills would be inconsequential.

Meanwhile there is much discussion regarding defence versus welfare budgets. What is going on? Schools are needing a huge input of cash to pay for child psychologists to tackle autism. I sthis true? Has autism increased? and if so why? Is it better diagnosis or over diagnosis? The same with the number on sickness benefit – has the number needing it really grown b 50% in 10 years? TBH – I am not surprised, whatever the answer! If you have to get up and go to work in a basic wage job or zero hours contract with few prospects and much boredom, and still get welfare top ups, why should you bother getting up at all! So the problem is not the welfare payments but the firms paying shit wages whilst rewarding their directors and shareholders. Also in the equation is the cost of property/ living space should be a basic human right. Thatcher destroyed council houses and ignited the property market. Why does homeownership of multiple homes benefit the homeowner disproportionately to the renter. Supply and demand – fuck off! Manipulation by the rich more likely! Reintroduce rent controls.

Single sex spaces – a furore if indignation from many who have not used a toilet in a public space for years. I do not understand what this is all about! I would guess that at least 95% of people are unaffected, but encouraged to give a shit by the media!

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PRIVATE JETS

It seems that if you are rich enough to travel by private jet you do not have to bother with customs or any checks at all. I wonder how much contraband and trafficking takes place in obscure airports. It is all part of the power game. Also these flights are in effect subsidised by the tax payer as aviation fuel is tax free! The big question is why it took a quarter of a century, after concerns first raised, for these matters to be finally investigated

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COP 30

Do not let the fascists and deniers win! Starmer is retreating as Reform do well in the polls – but it does not have to be like this. Musk has launched a competitor to Wikipedia and the right wing knuckle draggers and flag shaggers have referred to Wiki as Wokepedia thus identifying there greatest weakness. FACTS. Wiki is fact checked and whilst tgere have been mistakes it is very good and accurate. The right wing hate this attention to facts, much preferring to brag about the lies they circulate on social media.

I recognise that there will often be disputes about facts, and that even substantiated ones may sometimes be disproven. However when even the POTUS sprouts garbage we have a problem. Paracetamol does not have any supporting evidence for causig autism – fact, but if Trump says so! But I can make up my own mind about that – but climate change affects every single one of us. The theory is indisputable; the impacts verified; but still the empty heads claim it is a left wing conspiracy! Fuck me, how stupid can these people be, and then gullible to extreme levels.

270 million were made homeless in the last decade by climate change, and 117 million by war. Is there a bigger exlistentual threat to our planet. My apples had fewer insect intrusions than ever before – I guess this should be welcomed, but I use no insecticides and the bird feeder was used less often. I just realised that I had jumped from 250 million homeless to maggot free apples – however they are linked inextricably.

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CLIMATE CHANGE

Trump interprets words to his own interpretation. He claimed that Bill Gates had said that climate change was a hoax – he did not. He merely said that whilst itwas a major problem the emphasis should be business innovation (where he has huge investments!). With huge areas of the planet facing ecological breakdown there would seem to be a need for concerted action at all levels. Areas threatened with breakdown include the Amazon rainforest, destabilisation of Antarctican and Greenland ice caps and changes to the oceans. On an immediate level we have had significant floods in Pakistan and China and Hurricane Melissa and tropical storm Fengshen in Taiwan.

However there are positives (which the right wing parties seem to want to undermine for some strange reason?). Global investment in battery storage and renewables are risng. The cost of solar has fallen by 90% in 15 years, wind power is also fallen by 50% (offshoe) and 95% ( onshore). whilst battery costs are down by 90%. Where these stats come from as reported in the Observer is stated, but does not seem to be being passed onto the consumer. However it is positive but … oil companies are still expanding their production.

I am reminded of the old adage ‘give a man a fish and it will feed him for a day – teach him to fish and you feed him for life”. Reform and the Tories may cut energy bills today, but they will be lining the pockets of shareholders in the oil companies for decades, whilst contributing to 7million deaths a year from the pollution caused. (WHO figures). Let alone the ecosystem collapses stated above.

The cost of action against climate change is estimated at 15 GDP, the cost of inaction is 5-20% GDP. A no brainer (Trump, Farage, Badenoch, etc.!).