Category: Geography

A Russian Official says boats taking weapons to the Ukraine will be legitimate targets. I am all for diplomacy and negotiation – but there comes a point where Putin understands that what we provide to a ‘free’ sovereign nation is none of his business. He needs to be aware that his navy will suddenly become a lot smaller if he tries it on. The millions fleeing his attempted genocide cannot be ignored. But read on for a counter argument.

It is estimated that losses to his invasion force are between 5-10% in terms of troops and equipment. His economy is being trashed. It is important not to escalate, but one also needs to stand up to tyrants and bullies. It is interesting that both sides are avoiding using their air forces as it seems that anti-aircraft systems have the upper hand. The Russians are bombing at night apparently.

I am sure military historians will be able to quote many situations where defending populations were left to their own devices (Was Warsaw in WW2 an example?).

Mean while the Russian Embassy is moving to 10 Downing Street, oligarchs are selling their houses in London with a score or more up for sale.

Of course all the above is based on my believing the narrative coming from the West. This narrative is not universally accepted – or 100% approved. Has NATO pushed too hard against the boundaries of Russia? I personally do not think so as past Russian atrocities in Chechnya, Syria and elsewhere show an intent by Putin to be the strongman! However it would be disingenuous to suggest that the USA and NATO have been without blame. The wars on Iraq and Libya, the acquiescence with the Saudi led war on Yemen all need critical evaluation.

I have not posted on this for a while. However there are some concerning statistics coming out. Locally in N.Somerset positive cases are up 72.5%, patients admitted up 37.4%, but deaths down 33% to 2. So how does one analyse this? I suppose I do not know the criteria for stating hospital admissions are up? Nationally there has been an increase in over 60’s developing the virus and a 4th injection is proposed for me!

I know there is other stuff going on – but maybe we should not turn a blind eye?

There have been many benefits from globalisation. My world is very different and mainly better than the world I was born into. This is also true across the world with the % living in poverty way below that of 50 years ago. However with benefits have come detriments. The lack of regulation that benefits trade has also meant the development of economies based on unicorns and fairies.

Looking at a map of the world one is taken by the sheer size of Russia, and add in friendly countries like the ‘stan’s’ it is even larger. However it is also noticeable that its coastal boundaries are away from most trade routes. With Turkey having closed the Bosphorus to the Russian Navy and the Skagerrak being controlled by EU countries Russia will be increasingly dependant on Arctic waters and the North Pacific – both remote from the centres of population and industry.

The long game. Putin almost certainly has the ability and fire power to achieve at least a partial victory in military terms. Whether he can allocate enough troops to maintain any victories is doubtful. So annexation of Eastern Provinces is likely. The capture and murder of the Ukrainian President would probably be counterproductive in the long run.

Reports of African’s being reused entry to Poland and other borders. We should not forget that many other countries are homophobic, racist and misogynist. Now we have regrettably left the EU we have lost influence in these countries but we should be exerting influence over this. Most of these people are students who presumably what to make their way home – we should aid this, or offer alternative educational courses.

The invasion of Ukraine seems to be taking much longer than perhaps Putin expected. The number of deaths is growing. Would he have expected an easy passage like how surrogate fighters had in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea? Huge troop movements seem to be underway – but also it seems likely that street by street battles are likely to ensue. therefore it would seem that Putin has to be in for a long slog? Even killing Zelenskiy will not solve the problem.

Ukraine is not part of NATO so interventions cannot be made without being seen to be an invasion. However strengthening of the defences of Poland, Latvia, etc. is totally valid. Putin’s nuclear threat needs to be met with similar alertness from the west, but a steady hand.

Will Putin now go for a full scale onslaught with planes, missiles, and tanks? This will cause massive destruction and slaughter, probably mainly of civilians, and certainly on the Russian side – conscripts.

How many of the Russian donors to the Conservative Party are now giving similar or larger amounts to support Ukrainian Refugees and even the State of Ukraine? Presumably the Tories will be publicising the details?

Reports seem to show that there are supporters of Putin in Kyiv.

A humanitarian disaster – Kyiv is a city of 2.5 million (after refugees have left) where there will be starvation without aid.

If Putin follows past action will we see carpet bombing of residential areas as in Syria and Chechnya? How will the west react to slaughter on a huge scale in Ukraine. We ignore it in Yemen, Palestine, Syria, Libya, Iraq.

Interesting to see Turkey taking important action. With fuel shortages, does this create an opportunity for Iran? With oil prices going up will that help Venezuela (or has the USA got that country sussed)?

We need to be aware of the fluid nature of international relationships. And Trump might make a new bid for president despite evidence about just about anything. Are Americans really that stupid?