CLIMATE CHAOS

Floods across Central Europe – where rainfall has smashed previous records (95mm to 154mm in Koln). Canada and West USA braced for more record temperatures and associated fires. And the hurricane season has not really got going yet. And of course records from other parts of the world are hardly reported.

1mm rain = 1 litre of rainfall per square metre. An interesting statistic that I looked up after hearing that parts of Germany received 148 litres per square metre in a 48 hour period. Being a gardener (I would not say keen!) I am aware of how much a 5 litre watering can do. This is a bit like the comments about ‘half the size of Wales’ – but I have 5 big pots of mint and probably water them with a litre each every day or so. That rainfall was like about me pouring 30 cans over them in 2 days! What was the point of the last few sentences – none really, but as no one else reads this it does not matter!

4 thousand km2 burning in 71 wildfires. The largest are creating pyrocumulonimbus clouds (hail, lightning and tornadoes). It really does seem as if the earth has had enough of our nasty habits. The Amazon is now in oxygen deficit due to clearing by fire for farming under the policies of their bozo president.

And the UK – will have a relatively minor heat wave for the next few days. This weather can always set of thunderstorms and localised flooding events. It all depends where these are. Sorry, but I am cynical. It depends on where it its. If it is an area with crowded housing or people below the £1 million threshold there will be much hand wringing, and bleating about support and help, but basically nothing will be done to change the land use that creates the problem (especially if a grouse moor). If only the floods could hit Henley or Sandbanks, I am sure stronger action would be taken. I suppose the rich mostly built their houses on hills so they could look down on the peasants! Certainly true of Clifton within Bristol and the owners mansions overlooking the harbour.

CLIMATE CHANGE – AWFUL PLANING

Western states of the USA and Canada continue to suffer from the extreme heat. And whilst the temperatures have dropped the rain has not. Huge fires rage out of control covering a total area greater than North Somerset. The world’s hottest place is thought to be Death Valley, California at 54 C. Although parts of the Sahara seem pretty hot to. Australia should be in winter I think? But temperatures of 25-29 C do not seem very winterish?

Major flooding in Western Germany and Belgium and the Netherlands with over 50 deaths reported.

No hurricanes of note yet, but it is early in the season/

The Uk has had a typical summer with bits of everything except a long dry spell – which is now predicted for the next few days/weeks. Temperatures up to 28/29 C here over the weekend.

Many, possibly more than 70, people have been killed by lightning at the onset of the monsoon season in India..

Weather prediction has come a long way and there are few surprises, just awful planing!

NATIONAL FOOD STRATEGY

A grand title with ok ideas, but they are just that, ideas. up to now most initiatives have failed or been so watered down as to be useless. The food lobby is powerful and rich. But the cost to the NHS and government via other support payments, and to industry in days lost is also very high.

SUSTAINABLE CITIES

Floods in London after 70mm of rain fell in 90 minutes. Yes that is heavy rainfall but should not have led to flood waters a metre high. The reason being that we have paved over vast areas of our cities and towns to create parking spaces. What we really need is to create more sponge type areas. mature trees can absorb 250lts or more per day, with the added benefit of ameliorating temperature extremes, and during hot spells providing welcome shade and habitats for wildlife.

COVID RESTRICTIONS TO BE LIFTED

Personal discretion to replace legally enforceable rules. he cannot even enforce the rules within his own cabinet, let alone expect the country to act sensibly. Even with supposed legally enforceable rules there are many round here who do not wear a mask in the shop. It might be a small percentage, but how many does it need to spread the virus? Javid says we have to live with the virus and manage the risks. Does he really think passing responsibility for sensible behaviour to the individual is managing the risks. Did he not see the scenes at Wembley, in pubs and then notice the furore over the racist abuse on social media.

HEATWAVE UK

Western Canada and the USA are continuing to suffer from extreme temperatures, not just hot but life threatening. The concerning thing is that British Columbia is in a very similar geographic position regarding latitude and proximity to ocean currents and continental air mass. So there are no geographical or meteorological reasons why the UK could not suffer a similar wether pattern. Politicians – you have been warned – so act now!

FREEDOM DAY

On July 4th in the USA more than 180 people died from gun related incidents as reported by CBS. The freedom to carry a gun. 200 people die every year in the UK from drink related driving incidents. The freedom not to wear a mask – deaths not calculated yet. The freedom to travel to and from India after restrictions were placed on Pakistan and Bangladesh, thus allowing the Johnson strain to spread, deaths still rising (TBC).

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF COVID

All reports indicate that in the UK, and probably worldwide, Covid has become the disease of the poor. Reasons for this can vary but the major one is the high level of overcrowded living conditions and Covid. This is then compounded by the mistrust of the Government in the BAME community and the willingness of the poor to believe the anti-tax misinformation.

These two factors seem to be working independently, thus the North East has high levels of poverty and over crowding and has been hard hit in each wave ion the virus. Inner city boroughs in London like Tower Hamlets and Alum Rock in Birmingham have higher instances of the virus and lower vaccination rates, and more underlying health problems. The government has recognised this and has put money into solving it. Maybe door to door vaccination would help? Cornwall, presumably through tourism has had a recent spike with the Delta variant, whilst other rural areas with low population densities like Devon and Dorset have remained relatively low.

An interesting article on the BBC shows that the pattern of child mortality has hardly changed over the last 150 years. Covid follows the same pattern.

Going back to Dr.Snow in 1854, we have a lot to learn from the epidemiology of diseases. I wonder if the A level students who studied epidemiology with me have appreciated their knowledge recently? The international spread of the disease is more difficult to map, due to unreliable recording in some areas, but all the outbreaks I have seen reported originated in Wuhan, but were then rapidly spread by super spreader events like a ski resort in Switzerland (may have been Italy), Cheltenham Races and then more recently the decision by Bozo to not put travel restrictions on India when it was blatantly obvious to all that it was imperative (restrictions on Pakistan and Bangladesh – but he needed to try and get a trade deal with India to justify the Brexit debacle).

FINALLY

At last we have a policy from Labour. And a very sensible one too. “Make, sell and buy more from Britain”. makes total sense. Economically we need to reduce the debt and increasing manufacturing, especially in high tech and environmental areas would also create skilled, well paid jobs. Educationally we need to shift away from University for the sake of it to more engineering and vocational courses. That is without cutting support for the arts and media where we are already world leaders. Like. it or not, and I do not, Brexit is here – so we need to make the best of it. It is creating problems that will need ingenuity to overcome – a favourite quote of mine is from Boserup “necessity is the mother of invention”.