1stly it is my birthday toady – 73. But more importantly I want to talk about demography, a topic it seems that our politicans ignore – do they even teach Geography in Public Schools? So some stats to start with; number of babies born last year UK= 585000 (the lowest for ages; number of deaths UK = 568000; Net migration = 171000, the lowest for ages; unemployed under 25’s predicted to be 1.25 million by 2030; healthy life expectancy falling, apart from London 18.5% population is retired; average age of mothers is 31.1; % mothers born outside UK is 40.2%; fertility rate is 1.39.
So what to make of this? Fewer babies means fewer workers in the future, but a good thing if youth unemployment is rising. Or is it rising due to crap education – we really need to move away from the Victorian model of education and archaic exams. With births and deaths about equal do we need the 171000 migrants – the answer is probably as it seems the British population are not prepared to work in the fields and for zero hours contracts. We also seem to have a shortage of doctors, nurses and teachers? The last I have some experience of – is the growing prevalence of single children leading to a ‘little emperor syndrome”, parents questiioning and not supporting teachers who have a very enjoyable and rewarding, but difficult job. Schools in areas with generally young people will be forced to close, but local governments should use the opportunity to provide facilities that benefit the local community.
My friend Aaron states that he believes it is the cost of living that has caused the fall in numbers of births. I think he is wrong and heres why! 1. Couples have babies when they are settled in a relationship (generally) and have the ability to avoid pregnancy until ready. 2. We live in a world that has changed over generations. Women have to work to support the rent/mortgage. (yes this is a cost of living aspect, but I believe it to be a seperate issue). 3. Life is increasingly materialistic and socially shared. People put off parenthood until they have had their holidays, got cars, watched netflix, etc. These are cost of living aspects, but not essential – most couples wait until their late 20’s and early 30’s to have children (this will have a major impact on the statistics of children born. 4. Later births and the ability to chose, results in smaller families., not due to economics, just the desire for a smaller family 5. A higher divorce rate/ lower marriage rate also has the tendancy to delay pregnancy. And finally the birth rate declined with Covid, being at home did NOT lead to more pregnancies.
Oh and Aaron, there is no way that we are not better off than our parents – yes I have the stats to prove it! There is no way the majority of people delay childbirth for more than a few years due to financial matters (and if they do they are basically not fit to be parents). I think both Kate and I would agree that economics has very little to do with it!