SYRIA

It seems that it was all a little bit too quick?

Russia may be finding the war in Ukraine stretching its resources too much; Iran may be suffering from the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah; whilst Türkiye who have fought the Kurds for decades. seems to be the power broker in the region.

HTS is making a bid to be the de facto leadership post-Assad. How this will pan out will be interesting. Kurdish groups backed by USA hve large areas under control and are distrusted by Türkiye. The Islamist fighters will be hoping for a fundamentalist regime. Israel will have an influence by default. Russia has 2 large bases in the west of Syria which it will want to hold onto. HTS appears to be largely self-funded by oil and trade with Türkiye.

The west will be hoping to avoid the power vacuums that left Libya and Iraq in such dire straits that neither have recovered. Will Saudi Arabia or Qatar step into the vacuum? The joy at Assad’s departure maybe tempered by concerns for the future that the next few months will reveal.

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