INFLATION

I am admitting my ignorance here. Inflation hit levels above 10% because?

The reason I have heard are : people saved money during Covid by not travelling and going out (mmm. how this causes inflation is interesting, unless they all go out and spend, spend, spend). Secondly the Ukraine war – certainly the cost of fuel rose rapidly but has now fallen below prewar levels. Thirdly wage inflation – even private sector workers are getting less than inflation rises (and way less than public sector workers). Fourth – supply chain problems largely related to China and chips, but also container traffic being disrupted. None of these seem to explain inflation at 10+% and food inflation at nearly 20%.

But it is ok for energy companies and banks and the rest to make £billions – pay massive bonus’s and dividends. I do not get it? Surely this is inflationary? It puts money in the pockets of the rich. So either inflationary if they spend it, or wasted to the economy if they move it off shore?

Can someone show me evidence of rich investing in business? Companies go public to raise funds, and I get that risk they take. Companies also raise money to cover losses. But general trading on the stock market is pure gambling.

So Sunak stop hitting the poor with rent/mortgage increases and tax the rich – actually I would prefer some price caps which would be fairer.

ERG

The tail that wags the dog! 35 MP’s are active supporters and another 29 have been members in the past. That enough to overturn the Conservative majority, thus this small but tight group yields power beyond its numbers. The DUP will be canvassing them for their support against any deal with the EU. Their visceral hatred of all things EU is ludicrous.

Basically about 60 MP’s have the ability to veto anything the government puts forward that they do not like. Does Sunak have the balls to take the whip away from the 35? Would they vote against the government? Many are likely to lose their seats anyway, as things stand, so may be willing to be bloody minded.

Sunak has a very difficult few months – maybe less – before he loses his job. At the latest this will be the next GE. Will he last that long? Will Johnson try to come back (he is buying a £4million plus mansion in Brightwell-cum-Sotwell in Oxfordshire (there are surely a plethora of jokes here! – especially as it has a moat). Oh what has happened to hard work ensuring wealth in this country when a moderately funny and debatably honest hack has this money to chuck around).

Groups like the ERG should not be funded by public money on the left or right or centre. Politicians should listen to constituents – Johnson, please note.

COFFREY IN USA

Over there trying to get a trade deal, any deal will do, to bolster the flagging morale of Brexiteers. She announced that she will not go vegetarian or vegan. Silly woman. We all need to reduce meat consumption for the sake of the environment. American chlorinated meat will be on our shelves soon (undercutting British farmers with more sustainable farming methods). North Carolina has the UK as the biggest market for sweet potatoes – I get mine from Spain with a much lower carbon footprint.

Elsewhere in the USA the rail accident in East Palestine, Idaho is at last making the news in the UK, 2 weeks later. The train company did not attend a public meeting due to concerns over the safety of their employees if they attended. This is the lawless USA nowadays! Norfolk Southern Corporation, the train operator, has made massive profits and has a history of cost cutting. There were 150 carriages on the train which seems a bit excessive? Presumably more than one engine was used – probably many, and I bet they were minimally crewed!

GARDEN AND COOKING

Long range forecast is looking a bit chilly so no rush to plant tomatoes, last year was 3 March but I think wait and see what the weather is like then. Just toms, cucumbers and chillies and maybe red peppers this year? I might move my avocado plants to the greenhouse once it gets warmer and see if we can get just one!

Cooking – I think a Cornish Saffron Cake and a Simnel Cake for Easter?

Before that is pancake day! Can I get beyond brown sugar and lemon juice – probably not, yet again I will not even try!

BRITISH GAS

Centrica profits trebled to £3 billion, yet asked for, and got warrants to invade peoples houses and instal the expensive pre-payment meters. That most of the profit, like, BP, Shell, Exxon and the rest of the fossil fuel companies came from exploration and supply on the international market is irrelevant on moral terms. However we live in an age which lacks morality and environmental responsibility. Profits rule. Companies push their share prices higher by buying back shares and then pay themselves a whacking bonus’. Dividends go to shareholders with money to spare rather than those who cannot afford heating. Welcome to a cold hearted cold mean Britain.

EARTHQUAKE

World’s response is still abject. I would suggest a permanent team of experienced professionals, funded by the UN, to collate information about key resources (rescue teams, tents, food, etc.). They should be organise rescue and support efforts immediately. I am sure all these things exist but their co-ordination seems awry.

Obviously with Syria politics played a big part. Today IKEA announced that it was sending 5000 flat pack buildings – fantastic, but they should be signed up for donations like this in advance. “IKEA proudly sponsors UN Disaster Relief Fund” – big publicity splurge by companies and governments, and individuals. Shareholders should ask why has my company not supported this?

The bureaucracy should be small and actual efforts outsourced who know what is needed and how to do it. No Covid backhanders here!

WATER COMPANIES

are set to lobby the government to allow them to continue to pump shit into our rivers and seas without fines. I guess they are really saying that they want permission to avoid doing their job. They have a virtually guaranteed profit set by OFWAT. They claim that a clean up would cost hundreds on every households water rates. Not with me in government it would not. Profits would be based on compliance with the law – if their share price goes down juster-nationalise them.

There is too much talk about the lack of inward investment (basically pleading for tax breaks for companies). Sort out Brexit and there would be no problem. I accept the freedom of movement problem, but we have, and always have had control over migration. Investment in infrastructure and education, tax breaks for renewables, etc. would make this country welcoming again. We had years of low corporation tax, and look where that got us.

Freeport seems like a disaster waiting to happen on so many fronts. But for a government benefit of ideas there is little option than to pass the buck.

Council taxes will go up 5% this year just about everywhere. Wages for council leaders are also set to increase. Why should any council (public service) pay over 100 people more than £100000. Time for decentralisation from Westminster and focusing on the local councils. Open government is desperately needed. I know who my local MP is, and how he votes! I do not agree with him. but it is transparent to a degree. Who is the leader of the council? How much are they paid? What are their policies? What are the difficulties they face?

Weston-super-Mare has little super about it nowadays. It is the sinkhole of beautiful North Somerset. Positives from the council are the discrete flood defences. Street furniture along the sea front is nice. However it reflects the Banksy “dismal land” exhibition. I am being rather snobbish here when I state that it is a down market sea side town reliant on day trips and b&b visitors from the lower deciles economically. I was once told by the Head of Tourism for the town that it was not even a fish and chip town, but a burger and chips one. Parking is extortionate – I realise the Council needs funds, but really! The town centre is empty properties, tattoo parlours, betting shops, charity shops, phone shops and a smell of weed. Now Marks and Spencers has gone it offers little to the weekend shopper from the surrounding wealthy hinterland. I live 15km away and have not been there since pre-epidemic.

W-s-M has lots of positives. Not just a rather gorgeous beach (it is still there when the tide goes out to reveal the less glorious, but more interesting for wading birds, mud banks), but a pedestrianised High Street and an indoor shopping centre (Sovereign Centre). My idea would be to slash business rates but also place restrictions on the types of shops. Incentivise local crafts and cafes to offer a different experience. Keep the very touristy bit to the sea front, James St, West St, area and Dolphin Square. Then develop an up market (or middle market) to the north. W-s-M needs both to succeed.

Transport – I really should apply for my free bus pass! But a reasonably priced regular/ or organised (e.g. In Sandford and Banwell and Locking camp there will be a bus at 9am, or what ever, and a return at 4pm or whatever, on a Saturday for the cost of £5. For a 50 seater coach that would pay the operator £250. Sell tickets in advance and lay on extra coaches if necessary. We have the technology! The £5 could probably be doubled. Bus companies have lost the will to enterprise under the governments pro-car regime.

This area is fantastic and to have a smelly drain at its centre is sad!

CITIES

Before the Industrial Revolution mist people lived in rural communities and were largely self sufficient. Life expectancy was 40’ish. Things then changed. People moved from the countryside as mechanisation took place and factories needed labour. In Manchester by 1825 the life expectancy was 26! However medical science and hygiene soon won out and life expectancy is now about 78.

The driving force of needing labour in factories, shops, offices is receding fast. Home working, internet, online shopping all make the need for cities less relevant. In the countryside we have vast tracts occupied by the upper class with low population density. Farms that are managed on a macro style for profit may become less prevalent as the demand for quality and organic grows. Intensive farming of e.g. chickens is thought to be behind outbreaks of bird flu and other pathogens that have the ability to transform in to hazards for mammals.

We are seeing a growth in village sizes as people opt for a quieter, cleaner lifestyle. This however creates a problem as people seem to “want is all and want it now” lifestyle. This involves travelling far and wide and often for their visceral pleasure. How many people will spend their whole life without seeing a kingfisher or tern, the sound of a cuckoo, the scent of wild garlic in a bluebell wood?

Back to the topic. Our cities are declining in the services they provide. Food shopping is based on the outskirts. Clothing sales are often online and the city centre, once a hub of retail activity are often a dull series of tattoo parlours, betting shops, chain cafes, charity shops and discount stores serving those who live in the city and cannot afford the escape.

So the poor are stuck in the city, and its vibrancy and entertainment facilities will still attract the young adults. It will still have a function. Will there be a need for office blocks in the future – it seems unlikely. The fact that it is the young that will be attracted means that it will be at the forefront of innovation, as long as they are not starved of funds. Universities will thrive in the urban landscape of the future, with their ability to bring people of specific talent together.

The balance of inputs and outputs between cities and rural areas will change. The carbon footprint of cities will be reduced? Is this a wishful thought? Can we go back to the situation when every city was surrounded by market gardens and orchards? The globalised world took us over and offered cheap produce for a long time. Cities will always need to pay over the odds for utilities and disposal.

The hold that companies like Coca-cola and Google and Amazon have over us will change (Google shares lost $170billion last week, Tesla similar amounts.). Will the government change the basic rules to support local industries and start ups? The present one seems to be intent on wealth growth for the rich.

So my theory is that the growth of cities was predicated on the Industrial Revolution, and we will see counter urbanisation on a large scale. This will however have to be matched by demographic change (less people) and economic change with MNC’s losing their tax breaks.

UNAWARE

What cost of living crisis? Sunak is waning around the country by plane and helicopter. Government credit cards are being used for top end purchases of wine and gifts, Michelin accredited restaurants used, and spending up 70%. But only for the toffs, Border Force workers were treated to vouchers for Pret A Manger.

I accept that the Prime Minister may need to stay in a 5 star hotel but some of the spending seems reckless.

SUNDAY 12 FEBRUARY 2023

About time – cross-party talks on Brexit failures https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/11/revealed-secret-cross-party-summit-held-to-confront-failings-of-brexit

In the context of Truss demanding tax cuts this is another twist in the narrative of this government. Perhaps Gove sees himself as a Tudor style king maker!

Farmers are complaining that only 0.44% of money allocated for Post-Brexit funds has been paid. We need viable farms with environmental responsibility to be thriving – otherwise the developers will take over. Has anyone done a long term projection of the UK population, its demography and the need for new housing? It seems to me that the need for new housing is based upon economics not physical need.

Education – 40% of year 6 children will not hit required levels. Perhaps the government needs to act now. The best teachers in the early stages are their parents. Fund child care where parents have to work. And support those who struggle – provide library sessions and cooking ones too. If the figure is true it makes the job of later year teachers impossible.

NHS – recent reports about outsourcing to cut waiting lists suggests corruption.