Category: Weather and climate

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WEATHER

The cold spell continues for at least until the end of January. We had only a smattering of snow whilst Blagdon and Bristol Airport had a worthwhile covering for a while. After a year of persistant rain this makes a change!

USA meanwhile has massive fires in California (insurance bill will be astronomical!). and heavy snow in the East and south. Trump blames the fires on the Green initiative diverting funds – the guy is unreal! and our conservative and Reform MP’s echo him like lemmings! Muskrat is harping on about rape gangs as he is soo heavily committed to young girls welfare! Facebook has done away with fact checking in the name of democratic freedom and freedom of speech. The world is fucking insane!

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STORM DARRAGH

This one looks like it may be rather windy! And with snow in Scotland and heavy rain in Wales! I suspect that we will have a blowy winter! Every 1C warmer = 7% more moisture in the atmosphere. So with global warming it will be wetter than the past average as a normal? And all those houses built on flood plains? The pumps in Worle and the levels maybe working overtime.

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GRUMP! FLOODS

This a grumpy person speaking! People are complaining that flood warnings, flood prevention, etc. were not enough. Firstly, how many of these people are driving their petrol cars and complain if fuel tax is raised? Secondly why do they always rely on others? I saw the weather forecast, looked at the predicted rain radar map and could see that some areas were going to be hit hard. If living close to a river with steep valley sides it is obvious that there is a flood danger – why wait for the Met.Office or Env.Agency? If anything I would complain about the Met. Office issueing too many warnings – “Crying wolf”? People are criticised for stockpiling during emergencies, but maybe it should be encouraged in some areas?

We lie in times of unpredictable weather – Valencia was an extreme example of this, but everyone needs to be aware. Climate sceptics are fed the bullshit so that the rich do not have to pay extra tax to restrict climate damage – they are unaffected by food price rises. Food prices are becoming increasingly unstable as extreme events become less rare.

And then the guy in the large green tractor who sped through te flood water creating a bow wave large enough to smash windows! Did he attend a rally to complain about inheritanvce tax?!

I think my basic gripe is that people expect others to do the work. If anything the role of government should be to encourage land use plans that both mitigate and prevent floods. With a proliferation of new housing needed and planned this is urgent (and will upset farmers more)!

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SNOW

It snowed, a bit wet but undeniably snow! This is earlier than I remember it – ever! there is light precipitation shown on the rainfall radar until 16.00 then a cold night!

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CLIMATE CHANGE

Much has been made of the lack of preparedness and warnings in the Valencia Region. But are we any better? Certainly the Met Office and Env. Agencies have plans and warnings but do they call wolf too often? And does anyone take any notice anyway? Parents evenings at school 10 years ago continued despite warnings and the evidence outside! During the Covid Crisis it was apparent that there was no locally based planning or organisation. The local council disappeared completely. New housing developments will/may excabated the situation. Locally I believe that a syatem for closing the road to Puxton should be an obvious duty for the council if weather warnings are issued. Churchill traffic lights are often flooded and new housing nearby may increase the problem. As an A road this situation needs attention urgently. Other problems seem to have been solved after floods about 10 years ago. However there are very local situations that can affect one or two houses – contingency plans need addressing.

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WEATHER AND STATISTICS

A quiery – what does a prediction of 20% rainfall actually mean? 20% of what. My belief is that they should stick to very likely, likely, possible, unlikely. Then they could add a percentage to which they believe the prediction to be likely. E.g. We are 50% sure that rain is likely could then be interpreted as – we have not got a fucking clue so take a brolly! Things like thunderstorms would need clarification – a 20% chance would mean a 1 in 5 chance – that is meteorology, thunderstorms are limited in both location and duration.

But I revert to – what the fuck does does 40% likelyhood mean – possible or just – we have no fucking clue!

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HURRICANE

Beryl is the earliest Category 5. They are usually mid-season (August-September). This one has trashed parts of Venezuela, Grenada and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. It is now heading close to Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. My good friend and ex-student is living there and has said he will send photo’s which I will post here.

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WEATHER FORECASTS

It has long been the retort of the forecast sceptics to state ‘look out of the window”. However there is no doubt about the long term changes that are affecting us. Many tories are deniers – why is this not made more public? This spring was the warmest on record but Flaming June has not appeared yet! But it has certainly been the dampest I can remember, and for June cold. But this is where we need the experts to explain how the patterns of change are relentless.; Just because this June was colder than the last one, or even tens, it does not detract from the fact that our climate is wrming up. And with this different weather patterns occur. – and any change brings the need to adapt – something humans can be good at but generally dislike? The number of insects is massively down – swifts have been non-existent round here and I have seen no swallows or house martins.

Surely it is time to ban household chemicals that can be used in the garden with no licence? Farmers may need to adapt as they are having to do with climate change but can a householder not pull up a weed if they want to? My garden is the only haven along the road at the moment – I am hoping for lizards and snakes as well as hedgehogs and foxes! I have an insect hotel up but it is empty!

OK – Positives – the flame lily by the front door is, Well doubling back having hit the 8ft ceiling and has lots of flowers forming – post to follow. And the sun is shining – hopefully tomatoes will be on stream next week.

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Gluggaveður

The Icelandic word gluggaveður, which translates as ‘window-weather’, refers to weather that is good to watch from your window, appropriate for today!

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SNOW

The Daily Star is remarkable for its animal amd weather stories – headlines much better than the Sun! So I decided to see where its forecast of a snow bomb came from. The following was found

Mercury readings could drop as low as -7C in parts of Scotland, with snowfall spanning a 436-mile radius from Inverness in Scotland to Reading. Weather maps from WXCharts show the possibility of snowfall on November 29, while Wales and Northern Ireland could be swamped with rain. 

And the charts show snow continuing into next month with up to 50 centimetres possibly falling on December 3 in Scotland. James Madden from Exacta Weather said it could get even colder depending on the impact of a sudden stratospheric warming event.

Howeverbthe Met Office prediction for 29Nov -6 Dec is as follows Most likely starting dry, settled and colder than average across the UK with widespread morning frost. Outbreaks of rain and slightly milder conditions are however soon likely to arrive into the northwest, spreading southeast to many parts. The early part of next week is most likely to be characterised by light winds and a mixture of wetter, cloudier conditions and colder, brighter and drier conditions, before winds from a broadly northwesterly direction become more established. These leading to periods of wet or showery weather focussed in the northwest of the UK, and largely dry weather elsewhere. Temperatures overall are most likely to be just a little colder than average, with only a very small chance of something much colder and wintry developing from mid to late next week.

Frost seems lkely here in North Somerset on 29th November.