A MONDAY IN JULY

Weather normal, warm rather than hot, damp rather than wet, cloudy at times – basically make your own weather forecast!

America has shown faults in its electoral system. Basically it is a true capitalist system – he/she who raises the most money wins! Biden has dropped out and Harris is in prime position to. take his place. Presumably she will be given a higher profile and be acting President ( even if she loses she will do better than lettuce Truss in time terms (and positive impact!). Will the Trump ‘saved by god’, chosen by God’ theme run out of steam? I realise that twitter and the British Press love the controversy of the red neck Americans spoutting nonsense and the associated British twats who go to support like Truss, Farage, Johnson and recently Russell Brand. The tory press is in difficulties with the anti-British rhetoric of Vance and Trump. Their dearly beloved historic “special relationship” which has probably never existed, or not for at leact half a century, is now as meaning ful as them sending a distress not to MAGA in a bottle!

Will America vote for a black woman? Probably not as many working class immigrants have already been indoctrinated by the aggressive rhetoric of the orange, tampon emblazoned fool! It will be interesting to see how the race now pans out – Trump himself is not looking great! Despite all the golf!

Back home conservative commentators are desperately trying to find reasons to slag off Labour – unsuccessfully so far. The list of possible candidates for the Cons Party leadership is growing and shows no one of integrity or flair. I actually do not think this unfair! All the named potential candidates are tainted by one of Johnson, Truss or Sunak and the years of ineptitude. Reform will lurk over the election and whilst the think tank Onward says a return to conservative values is needed. However this is all a pointless exercise if Labour manage to create a concensus on sensible migration targets – the racists and their Reform Party will always be there but they can be sidelined by good policies on other issues.

Climate change – I believe that nature is giving us a chance – but we need to take note. Number of moths is down this year due to the weather mainly, as are butterflies although I did have peacock, meadow brown and small white – the peacock was on buddliea and I have nettles so I hope they will breed. Also Holly and I saw a Red Kite over the garden – the 2nd sighting after a 5 year dip. I also heard a frog in the front garden under the mulberry trees! That sounds so pretentious! I have a normal suburb front garden but have managed to pack loads in to replace the sterile grass lawns which are favoured by most!

CLIMATE

It makes no sense that this issue is still ignored. Hurricane Bryl was the first of the year, and earliest ever, and brought huge destructive energy acrossbthe Caribbean. It is likely to be the first of many this year – Will Trump do a Canute impression on the beach in Florida (without the wisdom of Canute!)? Already the insurance companies are recording high claims – it will get worse and the costs will be passed on to us all (Lloyds of London is still a key insurer internationally).

Elsewhere Japan is recording very high temperatures and Delhi has had record highs above 50C. Crops across Europe are being hit (I tried to buy cherries from Spain but the crop failed!). Farmers in the UK are recording high losses and without sunny weather soon the cereal crop will suffer. On a positive I have lots of mulberries for the first time and the apple tree is loaded. Tomatoes in greenhouse are slow – just 250g so far. But chillies are coming on!

ELECTION 2024

So it is all over! What have we learnt?

Humiliation for the Conservatives but not a total evisceration – but only just! Big names went down – Truss, Sleaze-Dogg, Mordaunt, Guillis, Mercer, Keegan, Shapps, Chalk. etc.. Sunak and Hunt held on with reduced majorities. Sunak resigned as leader and we wait and see if fhere is a swing to the right?

Greens and Reform both won 4 seats but the former still gets no mention whilst the c*nt Farage milks the press. Reform vote comes are very much of a protest single issue vote (racism!). We have to accept that 10-15% of the population are racist! No doubt the money will pour in for Farage and he will be on TV and in The Mail and Telegarph and Express incessantly. The Greens will continue to build from local strongholds just as they did in Bristol and Brighton. With 4 MP’s they have an opportunity to be heard – specially on climate and environmental aspects. If Starmer really wants to ring changes he could co-opt a Green as a junior minister for Climate, environment or water quality? I guess that this would be unpopular with the 412 elected Labour MP’s?

The Lib.Dems have an opportunity to be an effective opposition – it may take time for the Tories to form a co-herent one as they have been split asunder! I think I saw that there will be a new speaker – they will need to be strong to put Farage and Anderson in their place constitutionally – something they have no intention of doing! Maybe they should all be elected to the most boring committees? The LD’s are effectively with the greens to the left of Labour.

There are also the independants elected on the Gaza ticket! along with the disaffected Labour members headed by Corbyn. It is worth noting that Corbyn got more votes than Starmer’s Labour, but did not have the ruthless organisation that Starmer has developed.

Scotland has seen the SNP (just 9 seats down from 47!) decimated and the Tories have just 5 seats. I think this may be due to the ruling fatigue and the arrests in its leadership! Rather than a desire to promote the Union? Wales went Tory free(down 12) and Plaid Cwmru doubled to 4 whilst Labour went up 9 despite holding power in the Seined for years!

Northern Ireland is usually ignored in general elections as it has fewer seats – but here there were only minor changes(I think?). The DUP lost 2 seats but they remained in the fold (I think)! Sein Fein remained at 7 who will not be sworn in as MP’s.

HURRICANE

Beryl is the earliest Category 5. They are usually mid-season (August-September). This one has trashed parts of Venezuela, Grenada and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. It is now heading close to Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. My good friend and ex-student is living there and has said he will send photo’s which I will post here.

DEMOGRAPHY

Interesting stats from the ONS. Live births was down 3.1% to 605479 in Eng & Wales in 2022. Also half of all women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday. The fertility rate is about 1.7 (Italy 1.2 and SKorea 0.7). Worldwide only sub-Saharan Africa has a rapidly expanding population.

The population of the UK is rising through migration and given that most migrnts are under 35 one would expect expect that to have an impact on the fertility rate and births. Maybe it does? and the rate for those born here is similar to Italy?

There are many implications. Primary school places will be reduced (by as much as 13%) resulting in redundancies. The working age proportion of the population is set to fall. The population over 65 is set to rise both in numbers and in percentage.

This is happeneing now – and yet there is no discussion. We know tories do not give a shit – they will have pensions and be ok. But the implications for society are immense and growing. Pressures on NHS and the care sector. Need for unskilled workers, demand for higher skilled workers – or will AI have an impact on these and result in a dumbing down?

Will workers be paid more and work less? If so productivity will need to be improved (another dumbing down?). Will housing need to take these stats into account? Perhaps smaller housing with communial gardens? Older people taking on childcare to free people up for older aged care?

Age distribution will possibly become a bigger factor? Inner cities becoming the home of young adults whilst families populate the suburbs and villages. So where will old people go? Being well into that category I would like to continue to live where I am. However it is not perfect with the doctor in the next village, limited shopping and a group of christians dominating both church and village hall and subsequent groups! The majority of the under 65’s work away and shop and play away! I am sure some have never set foot in the village shop.

Education will at last need to change – traditional skills are superflous in a future scenario. Thinking skills are likely to become more important and maybe schools need to reduce the traditional school day hours and add super activites for at least 4 hours with different staff? A division between academic and artistic/fitness/fun?

Migration – at present it will need to continue until society can be restructured to take into account the changes happening. Asylum will increasingly be needed for climatic and environmental disasters (when will the superpowers wake up to the need for them to accept their responsibility?). Sub-Saharan Africa has been left to France and Russia for too long (with an input from USA). China has invested millions in infrastructure and raw material extraction. Surely it could become the power generator for Europe (a plan proposed many times! But the political turmoil caused by the underinvestment in the area has prevented large scale projects.

I have not mentioned culture – is this the elephant in the room? Are we all frightened of the basic culture we grew up with being modified or changed? I guess that in some areas the changes have been too fast. Wearing the burkah is maybe a symptom of this – after all what could be more inocuous than wearing a face covering? But it comes back to need to conform – children following the same fashions, joining in with activities that we know are wrong? More multi-cultural activities are needed in communities – who does not enjoy a taste of something different!

POLITICS OF FEAR

There is an underlying theme to the election. FEAR. Not just that overtly brandished with such enthusiasm by Farage, but by the major parties.

The fear of being honest, telling the truth and extolling experts where they exist. On almost every major issue Sunak is peddling lies, and Starmer is avoiding the truth. So examples:-

  • Migration. Anyone with half a brain will realise just how important migrants are to our society. Yes there are arguments to be had about numbers, where from, integration into society. But these arguments are not being heard as society panders to the vociferous bigotson the right mainly, but left too!
  • Law and order. The system is broken. Criminals are not even apprehended, prisons are overfull, police dealing with mental health issues, rape cases not heard or pursued properly. So where is the discussion regarding the deterioration of our civic society? Poverty plays a major part but here the parties are united on being strong on law and order, rather than being strong on the case for creating a society which cares for all. The discussion of causes and consequences of crime are avoided for fear of appearing to be “soft on crime”.
  • Climate change – Labour have been forced to regress on this issue by the financial incompetence of the present government (leaving no money, a woeful electricity distribution system and failed policies). Where is the discussion? Climate sceptic nobs like Rees-Dogg are allowed a free reign. ALL the evidence points to the economic sense of acting asap on this issue, the cost of climatic disruption is immense and can be measured not only in financial cost but lives. Subsidise existing housing to get the panels, upgrade housing to make heat pumps efficient, impose rules on new houses and landlords – cost to government minimal!
  • Nationalisation of public utilities – again discussion missing due to obsession of RWM with this topic. The railways issue is half accepted (but leasing trains, etc. isn’t), water companies continue to flout environmental laws with impunity (I recognise that foreign investment make be an issue here). Companies that arrogantly disregard environmental legislation and still pay huge bonus and dividends need to obey the laws of society. So fine them until they go bust – then nationalise them? But of course there is the discussion that is strangely absent here!
  • NHS – has alredy been largely nationalised. Labour faces a huge backlog of cases and a broken system. The argument missing here is whether the backlog should be cleared first or whether the system needs to be sorted first. Of course it is not a binary decision but I have qualms about the government paying private providers to cut the waiting lists when the same people work in the NHS! Paying staff a fair wage is imperitive to sorting the system – and then sorting out the management situation.
  • Council Tax – Another poisoned chalice a new government has been bequeathed! Council tax bands were created in 1992, the year of Nirvana, Whitney Houston and Michael Jackson! House prices have changed immensely since then, as have musical tastes. With councils going bust, sometimes due to poor investments made to avoid the stringent and cruel cuts made by central government. Firstly it would seem obvious that Local councils should not be investing money? Surely they should raise money to pay for the services they need to provide? Av complete revamp of the situation is needed following a cognitve discussion. Should there be a wealth tax in its place? Maybe a revamp of the structure too? Too many people paid 6 figure salaries (especially when they outsource contracts!).
  • Education – Do not impose VAT on public schools – just abolish them all together! Yes we know that smaller class sizes get the priveldged few better exam grades (often to the detriment of their ability to empathise!). The exam grades are not worth the cost to society. So tax the rich and send worthy students to the institutions of privilege! Another discussion that has been avoided! Only the whining of “I work hard to send my child to wherever” which immediately degrades the value of every other parent who works their socks off to provide for their children. When did education/teacher become a job rather than a vocation? I suspect it was when the rightwing took control of the media to publicise personal ego above society values? I know I cannot put a time scale on this! But again there needs to be a BIG discussion on what education is for/doing? The system has hardly changed for a few hundred years – kids sit behind desks and are told to learn stuff! But kids learn outside and doing stuff! Discussion needed. Degrees – now that it costs loads to go to university there is now a discussion about what degrees are relevant? Firstly I would say from a personal point of view that any business related degree is fucking shit! Again the morons have taken over – to some extent it has become a rite of passage for middle class kids (my own included here). Leaving home and still being educated seems like a good idea! Apprentiships are also good, and have their place, but I suspect rather limited. They are hardly going to adapt to the new horizons and jobs that will become available in the unforeseen future.
  • I guess I am at the end of my comfort zone! Armed forces need a comment – but I am so totally unqualified to comment – although that does not usually stop me!
  • Housing – related top migration – would it be wrong to think that most migrants are happy/content with flats? So brown field starts and forcing building companies to use land they have put away as an investment?

GARDEN MONTAGE – June 2024

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So everything healthy at the moment. Tomatoes are a bit of a concern as looking a bit leggy? And chillie plants have suddenly decided that they will join the party – 3 months of just sitting and now they are starting to grow. Pots of flowers I will put out the front when I am sure they are slug resistant? Is that such a thing? Morning glory amd love in the mist to be put out together with the plants from the shop that were dying.

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HOW WILL YOU VOTE?

Let us start with a traditional Conservative voter. If the toxicity of Reform appeals to you – please see a doctor and stay at home with a pint of warm beer and a flag! Otherwise there appears to be 20% of voters (and therefore about half of traditional voters) still seem to be intent on voting for the corrupt and incompetent crew! Whilst they may not relish voting for Labour (which has moved massively to the centre) then the alternative would be the Lib.Dems. For Labour voters on the left – hold your nose and vote to get the present crew OUT! Unfortunately as for the rest, if you vote in Brighton, Bristol Central or maybe Norwich it will probably worth voting for the Greens. Would Starmer be democratic enough, having looked at local elections, to offer a post at the DoE (DEFRA?) to the greens?

Starmer came across as relaxed and a PM in waiting on lbc this morning – despite efforts of Ferrari (who is unlikely to try as hard to unsettle Sunak tomorrow – and is unlikely to need to!). The RWP are desperately trying to tarr Starmer and the Labour Party. Having emptied the coffers (to their cronies) Labour have few opportunities to raise income and thus support public services which is what most sane people want?

On a personal level I have been identified as being at risk from lung cancer which is a little scary. However I am in 2 minds whether to attend as it is sub-contracted out from the NHS for the profit of a private company (and probably staffed by moonlighting NHS staff). I do not want to have to make this decision – I believe in the sanctity of the NHS!

WEATHER FORECASTS

It has long been the retort of the forecast sceptics to state ‘look out of the window”. However there is no doubt about the long term changes that are affecting us. Many tories are deniers – why is this not made more public? This spring was the warmest on record but Flaming June has not appeared yet! But it has certainly been the dampest I can remember, and for June cold. But this is where we need the experts to explain how the patterns of change are relentless.; Just because this June was colder than the last one, or even tens, it does not detract from the fact that our climate is wrming up. And with this different weather patterns occur. – and any change brings the need to adapt – something humans can be good at but generally dislike? The number of insects is massively down – swifts have been non-existent round here and I have seen no swallows or house martins.

Surely it is time to ban household chemicals that can be used in the garden with no licence? Farmers may need to adapt as they are having to do with climate change but can a householder not pull up a weed if they want to? My garden is the only haven along the road at the moment – I am hoping for lizards and snakes as well as hedgehogs and foxes! I have an insect hotel up but it is empty!

OK – Positives – the flame lily by the front door is, Well doubling back having hit the 8ft ceiling and has lots of flowers forming – post to follow. And the sun is shining – hopefully tomatoes will be on stream next week.

DEMOCRACY

Democracy is taking a beating at this election. Conservative leader Holden refuses to answer legitamate questions. Farage is rude to reporters who ask questions he does not like. Daily Mail publishes inti-semetic nonsense from Johnson. I do not see the press being objective in questioning all parties and holding them to account for their answers.

The tory £2000 tax claim – discredited is being repeated ad nausium, whilst t5he fact that tax has gone up by £13000 under the tories since 2019 has passed without comment.

Let us have honesty – tax will have to rise to provide quality public services. It is just a matter of where that falls. Tory HQ is also putting out bollocks about blackouts and public disorder with a move to zero pollution. What the fuck do they think will happen if we do nothing? Sea level rising and extreme weather will be blamed on? Green investment will provide cheaper bills in the long term. Locally Thatchers Cider (a bastion of conservatism) has invested in solar panels presumably to cut energy bills. Why should the poor not benefit? Who wants polluted rivers and seas (apart from foreign investors who care only for the profits.