Category: Geography

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CLIMATE

It makes no sense that this issue is still ignored. Hurricane Bryl was the first of the year, and earliest ever, and brought huge destructive energy acrossbthe Caribbean. It is likely to be the first of many this year – Will Trump do a Canute impression on the beach in Florida (without the wisdom of Canute!)? Already the insurance companies are recording high claims – it will get worse and the costs will be passed on to us all (Lloyds of London is still a key insurer internationally).

Elsewhere Japan is recording very high temperatures and Delhi has had record highs above 50C. Crops across Europe are being hit (I tried to buy cherries from Spain but the crop failed!). Farmers in the UK are recording high losses and without sunny weather soon the cereal crop will suffer. On a positive I have lots of mulberries for the first time and the apple tree is loaded. Tomatoes in greenhouse are slow – just 250g so far. But chillies are coming on!

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HURRICANE

Beryl is the earliest Category 5. They are usually mid-season (August-September). This one has trashed parts of Venezuela, Grenada and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. It is now heading close to Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. My good friend and ex-student is living there and has said he will send photo’s which I will post here.

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DEMOGRAPHY

Interesting stats from the ONS. Live births was down 3.1% to 605479 in Eng & Wales in 2022. Also half of all women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday. The fertility rate is about 1.7 (Italy 1.2 and SKorea 0.7). Worldwide only sub-Saharan Africa has a rapidly expanding population.

The population of the UK is rising through migration and given that most migrnts are under 35 one would expect expect that to have an impact on the fertility rate and births. Maybe it does? and the rate for those born here is similar to Italy?

There are many implications. Primary school places will be reduced (by as much as 13%) resulting in redundancies. The working age proportion of the population is set to fall. The population over 65 is set to rise both in numbers and in percentage.

This is happeneing now – and yet there is no discussion. We know tories do not give a shit – they will have pensions and be ok. But the implications for society are immense and growing. Pressures on NHS and the care sector. Need for unskilled workers, demand for higher skilled workers – or will AI have an impact on these and result in a dumbing down?

Will workers be paid more and work less? If so productivity will need to be improved (another dumbing down?). Will housing need to take these stats into account? Perhaps smaller housing with communial gardens? Older people taking on childcare to free people up for older aged care?

Age distribution will possibly become a bigger factor? Inner cities becoming the home of young adults whilst families populate the suburbs and villages. So where will old people go? Being well into that category I would like to continue to live where I am. However it is not perfect with the doctor in the next village, limited shopping and a group of christians dominating both church and village hall and subsequent groups! The majority of the under 65’s work away and shop and play away! I am sure some have never set foot in the village shop.

Education will at last need to change – traditional skills are superflous in a future scenario. Thinking skills are likely to become more important and maybe schools need to reduce the traditional school day hours and add super activites for at least 4 hours with different staff? A division between academic and artistic/fitness/fun?

Migration – at present it will need to continue until society can be restructured to take into account the changes happening. Asylum will increasingly be needed for climatic and environmental disasters (when will the superpowers wake up to the need for them to accept their responsibility?). Sub-Saharan Africa has been left to France and Russia for too long (with an input from USA). China has invested millions in infrastructure and raw material extraction. Surely it could become the power generator for Europe (a plan proposed many times! But the political turmoil caused by the underinvestment in the area has prevented large scale projects.

I have not mentioned culture – is this the elephant in the room? Are we all frightened of the basic culture we grew up with being modified or changed? I guess that in some areas the changes have been too fast. Wearing the burkah is maybe a symptom of this – after all what could be more inocuous than wearing a face covering? But it comes back to need to conform – children following the same fashions, joining in with activities that we know are wrong? More multi-cultural activities are needed in communities – who does not enjoy a taste of something different!

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STONEHENGE

Thoughts on the action by Just Stop Oil. Actual I have a few thoughts so here goes!

Firstly and most importantly it is very sad that it has come to this. I completely understand the frustration that many people feel about the lack of coverage given to climate change in this election – For those who care deeply about this issue I guess they had little choice.

Secondly – the choice – Stonehenge has been around for a while! It has weathered the toxic fumes of the industrial world and the protesters ensured that their paint was not toxic. However some papers and commentators are suddenly experts on lichen – Perhaps the Daily Mail will start a campaign to save our lichen (Unlichenly! – sorry, but it had to be done!).

The Daily Mail and Express have led with this – presuably they think that as most of their readers will either be dead or are so ignorant that any future climate change is irrelevant – but calls for them to be locked up when there is no space in our prisons is plain ridiculous.

Most sensible comment was from Dale Vance who basic told the PM to find more important issues that some non-toxic paint (that has already been removed). Child poverty would be a good place to start he suggested!

Lastly it give the MSP some respite from the bad news – Interesting tactic from the Telegraph

Sunak to become first prime minister in history to lose seat, major poll finds

Does this mean that they will offset their £244.6m loss last year by backing the likely winners? Or is it scaremongering – Project Fear in technicolour? WTF are the blue areas – areas with below average IQ and above average gross stupidity?

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IN FIGHTING!

So whilst the RWP have been able to avoid the carnage that is the Conservative Party by concentrating on royalty, the troops are on manoeuvres! All the right wing fanatics are voicing raising their profiles – Patel, Braverman, Badenock, Mordaunt and Shapps all seem to fancy their chances -IF they keep their seats! I am sure Truss also fancies her chances!

However there is no one from the centre making any noise? Is this due to lack of funding and support from Tufton Street? Whether you agree or not, and I am not overseen!, Starmer took on the left, and Momentum, to regain the centre ground – Sunak and the wets seem to be giving in to the fascists? My analysis of the normal status quo – would be that the moderate Labour Party and a competent Conservative Party would have about 30% each, Reform would be able to whip up 10-15% with huge media coverage and by creating a febril environment on migration; LibDems will perhaps never recover from the coalition and university fees and Nick Cleggs disasterous leadership!; The greens will hover around 5% with zero press support and will hope to build on strong local candidates; The left wing of the Labour Party will be a hidden element for now.

Whilst the rabid Farage will be supported by his cronies in the media we wait to see what support he gets at the polls. Reform did not do well in the local elections – it is very much a a pressure group rather than a political party for all the bollocks stated by Farage. 18% in the polls is not huge – enough to cause considerable damage to mainly the Tories but also Labour, but the Lib.Dems and Greens should come through unscathed. This could produce some interesting geographical outcomes?

This is where I get really interested! Will the Greens take Bristol Central and hold on to Brighton? They may even take Norwich? Then the Lib.Dems for whom (Ed Davey has done a brilliant job!) could clean up in some of the seats in the south and south-west? Will university towns produce a strong Labour vote and overcome the apathy of the young? Will Reform sweep Lincolshire and the coastal margins on the East?

Then the area I have no idea on – the North. Will Labour regain the seats lost to the charlatan Johnson in the ‘Red Wall’? Will there be a disillusionment vote for Reform based on perceptions (correct) that Westminster does not give a shit about the poorer regions (recent Tory handouts are derisory and probably subsumed by feasibility studies by London companies! So it will be interesting to see how Sunderland votes! Will local government results be replicated?

Then – I apologise for not refering to the other nations in the UK – I am based in Somerest and receive the trash media available here! But Scotland and Wales have both had a long term party in power which, it could be argued is not good so one at a time.

Scotland – The SNP have held power for a long time and virtually wiped Labour last time out – the Tories had 1 or 2 seats, maybe? The SNP are in a bit of disarray with first Sturgeon and then Yousaf resigning in difficult circumstance – this should lead to their anhilation at the polls but Ian Blackford and then Stephen Flynn have done a brilliant job at PMQ’s. Scottish Nationalism is also here to stay! So I suspect that the SNP will do OK- although they will lose seats to Labour. The Tories could actually be obliterated even in the Borderlands as their 7 seats look vulnerable to the usual selfich move of Douglas Ross to stand for Westminster – schmuck! LibDems seem to do well in the outlying regions but have not found a real home in Scotland other than the Highlands and Islands (over 700!)

Wales – agin we have a Parliament which has been dominated by Labour – and despite weekly aspertions by the Tory grandees – it has withstood and been quite radical at times! There does not seem to be the same desire for independance as in Scotland perhaps due to huge migration from England way back! So will Plaid Cymru make any inroads? Doubtful due to their lack of radicalism? Lib.Dems could do OK in rural areas as will the greens, but not well enough! Will Reform be a winner in the valleys?

Northern Ireland – I am hesitatnat here as Andy is bit of an expert and local! So it has been totally ignored by the media – and therefore seen to be irrelevant! Personally I think there could be some surprising outcomes ? Will Sinn Fein get more seats, that they will not occupy! Will the Conservatives and their compatriots the DUP lose seats? NI has been a victim of Brexit more than the rest of us! – what will their voters say? The London media seems to not care? They might regret this oversight?

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GEOGRAPHY

Nature has reminded me why I love geography! The spectacular volcano in Iceland and then the crocodile swimming down a flooded street near Cairns in Australia. Both are a reminder that we need to live with the power of our our environment.

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WEATHER

It has been wet recently. I emptied a bucket about 2 weeks ago and it is now full again. the soil is saturated – a drive along rural roads is like navigating a river. The forecast is for more rain starting early morning and lasting most of the day. It is a credit to the Environment Agency that flooding has not occured around here. However much new housing has been built on flood plains and I wonder how much the flood defences can cope with.

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GREEN AGENDA

Incompetence or calculation? In March 2020 the government pledged a £950 rapid charging fund to enable the transition to electric cars. As of today the amount spent is zero! Motorway service stations are waiting years for connection. Moto has asked just for the provision of the power, not a subsidy. Yet another hit for our climate change commitments.

On climate change – Storm Ciaran is on its way. A Greenpeace report has revealed that a huge number of flood prevention schemes are in poor repair (4204 in poor or very poor condition)… The North has had extensive flooding in some areas, now it is the turn of the South west. Checking the tide it seems that we are just past the spring tide maximum but still expect a tide over 11m. With high wind speeds and low pressure this could cause problems along the Somerset Coast. When will Sunak and Co realise that climate change is detrimental to the British Isles?

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LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

Braverman is trying to drum up support abroad for her anti-migration and asylum views. The definition grants the right for at least 780 million people worldwide to move to another country, according to the Margaret Thatcher-founded think tank, the Centre for Policy Studies.

This figure is based on the total number of people who might have a “well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” worldwide – including everyone in Afghanistan other than the Taliban or the male population of Eritrea, where conscription into the armed forces has pushed thousands into exile.

According to the UN the total number of refugees worldwide is much lower, with 35 million people registered as refugees in 2022.

So she is opening an attack on gay, minority groups worldwide!The obvious solution would be to increase foreign aid back up to 0.7%. I do not know who makes up the statistics for the CPS but would wonder how many are climate disaster refugees and what the projections are for the potential increase in these numbers. A sensible government would be planing to be as proactive as possible.

Being an anti-growth person myself, I too am concerned about the growth in the UK population. However Braverman seems driven by blatent racism, or is it a form of sadism?

The 780 million figure is similar to extortionate statistics quoted during the Brexit debacle. The internet is awash with them – my son told me that the UK would get 150mph winds tomorrow after reading it in the internet. (75mph in exposed places is the likely maximum)).

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HOUSING

So Sunak is making a play for votes by promising 1 million new homes over the next Parliament (to be built along side the 40 new hospitals?). This seems like a knee jerk reaction to rising rents and mortgages.

I guess most are needed in the South-East which already has a crisis of road traffic, and pressure on public services. There seems to be little demographic analysis of needs – a while back a Housing Minister stated that all new homes should have gardens. I would suggest that different age groups have different needs, but the house builders know which properties make the biggest profits. The government sets targets for Local Authorities. I would suggest that there is a classification scheme based on bedroom size/ terraces/flats/ semi’s, detached – luxury versions available? In a rural area it would mke more sense for the more expensive housing, whilst city centre developments could be more attuned to the needs of the young/single.

Rural areas often have poor bus services,and few facilities and are thus unsuitable for many. Consideration of facilities such as schools and health centres needs proper consideration along with water supply and sewage disposal/treatment.

OK I am privileged and live in a village. 200 new houses have been built recently and no new facities apart from a small swing park. I believe all use cars to get shopping from supermarkets 12km away, and to get to entertainment. The health cetre is in the next village. The well run and well stocked village shop is doing ok. Those who read this blog will know I am a bit of an anti-snob. However it would have made sense to me if the new housing estate had been replaced with maybe 10 4/5 bed quality houses surrounding a new village green (the village does not have one) and a pond (the site was sodden at times anyway). Rather than large gardens on some properties would it make sense for a small area and the option of an allotment? Allotment areas would do much to counter the pollution in cities and towns.

Ephasis needs to be put, not on the houses, but the communities they could create. has any estate been built in last 20 years with a youth centre? I accept that Cubs, brownies, scouts and guides can be a little too middle class (cubs was for me back in the 60’s with its militaristic use of badges/medals and flags). but society and the environment need the youth of today.