Category: Geography

I was thinking about why a c-b a for Covid restrictions would not be valid.

So firstly a look at costs of a lockdown. presumably an economic figure can be calculated with reasonable accuracy (Unemployment and welfare costs plus loss of tax income). Add on reduced tax from firms with reduced capacity (e.g. Airlines). I am sure this is a considerable cost. Then there is the social cost of isolation and measures on mental welfare. And the benefits of a lockdown are much more difficult to calculate – lower costs for NHS. Maybe some small environmental gains. I would calculate the cost of Tier 3 for the whole nation at about £40 billion (back of an envelope).

Costs of opening up economy. Economically it is probably fairer to calculate the reduction in economic costs as there will still be restrictions. Costs of increased pressure on NHS and reduced capacity for other things can probably be calculated – I have no idea of the cost a covid patient per day? Or the economic cost of a death at different ages, or the impacts of long covid. Just as lockdown creates mental health problems, the converse is also true with people being worried about being outside with lack of observance of safety rules. The social cost of deaths is also un-quantifiable. From what we hqve4 seen so far it would seem that any opening up of the economy will be met with a strict lockdown soon after.

Whilst the economic impacts maybe retrieved in the long term, the social costs cannot. Which leads to the final point. Vaccines are on their way – so probably 4/5 months more of restrictions before a return to some sort of normality.

But also remember that the more we intrude into the natural world, the more likely it is that further virus outbreaks will occur (AIDS, SARS, BIRD FLU, etc.).

Maybe it is time to increase the aid budget in an attempt to reduce the discrepancies in wealth between countries. This would reduce the population explosion in Africa and South Asia. In turn this would reduce the environmental pressure on habitats. We should also invest in using our land more sustainably. I feel a new post coming on!

Again interesting. Areas in Tier 3 with pub shut downs have all had significant reductions in cases. Eastern England has seen big rises – due to shopping? So locked own seems to work, but coming out of lockdown as in Wales seems to have made things worse! 2 weeks is obviously not enough. Should Bristol and North Somerset come down a tier – I would say no. Lets get the rate down to below 50 first.

With Trump hopefully about to leave the White House, the Israelis seem to have used the opportunity for yet another assassination in Iran. Wonder whether Putin will see this as a shortening window to push into the Baltic states or strengthen his hand in the ‘stans. Erdogan is more difficult to call. Boisonaro in Brazil must be concerned that the carte blanche he had under Trump might disappear.

Brexit – negotiations heading for final denouement – both sides will blame the other regardless of outcome. I think there may be some agreement, but suspect it will not be good for either side. And to be honest it is us who have most to lose. The rest of Europe will carry on as normal. The bullshit we were told about leaving Europe will come home in a bad way.