Category: Geography

Why are the ejits who run Education (if only) surprised that there are predictions for a surge in Covid numbers. After all it is the government who made the fatal decision to reduce restrictions over Christmas. They also have had access to data about growing infection rates amongst school students. I am fed up with people saying that this unprecedented pandemic is throwing curve balls. Yes it was unprecedented and there is some leeway in excusing incompetence back in March/April. However the last 6 months have produced a litany of bad decisions whose consequences should have been foreseen.

So teachers have to prepare lessons for remote learning, to teach those exam classes that are in school together with those vulnerable children. And organise testing. Even if the Army or volunteers are roped in to help, it is still the school that has to organise it. And they will probably give a contract to Serco to provide the tests! I am not sure I would want a random stranger poking things up my Childs nose and throat! The tests are also not particularly effective, some say it is better than nothing; but it might give false results, a negative test might give false confidence, and the accuracy is said to be about 50% Will they all be verified – which normally takes a while. On a phone in I heard someone complaining about left wing union snowflakes whom should just get on with helping the nation in this pandemic – my response would be that maybe all lorries should have loads of 100 tonnes?

But perhaps more than anything I would ask Mr Williamson and his sidekick Gibbs, why this was not planned for during the summer? This WAS predicted.

So a prediction. There will be a surge in January and some schools will be shut in some areas. This will result in discussions about exams in England. Someone will have a bright idea that test, track and then isolate could work really well if administered via a school. And proper testing of those who need it rather than a politically motivated mass testing. Are Cornwall, Isle of Wight, etc. also included?

All countries in Europe are suffering. This is a true statement. But look closer. We have had about 3 times as many deaths as Germany. We are about on par with Italy. Everyone is struggling, but most are taking more stringent measures than us.

So Nick Gibb threatens Greenwich and Islington with prosecution for advising schools to shut. Maybe he sees himself as a General Haig figure? Surely each council should be able to make their own decisions – if not popular the councillors can be voted out next time. I think that is called democracy?

I am fascinated by statistics – ever since failing the statistics part of my A Level Maths!

Nice detailed maps

I was thinking about why a c-b a for Covid restrictions would not be valid.

So firstly a look at costs of a lockdown. presumably an economic figure can be calculated with reasonable accuracy (Unemployment and welfare costs plus loss of tax income). Add on reduced tax from firms with reduced capacity (e.g. Airlines). I am sure this is a considerable cost. Then there is the social cost of isolation and measures on mental welfare. And the benefits of a lockdown are much more difficult to calculate – lower costs for NHS. Maybe some small environmental gains. I would calculate the cost of Tier 3 for the whole nation at about £40 billion (back of an envelope).

Costs of opening up economy. Economically it is probably fairer to calculate the reduction in economic costs as there will still be restrictions. Costs of increased pressure on NHS and reduced capacity for other things can probably be calculated – I have no idea of the cost a covid patient per day? Or the economic cost of a death at different ages, or the impacts of long covid. Just as lockdown creates mental health problems, the converse is also true with people being worried about being outside with lack of observance of safety rules. The social cost of deaths is also un-quantifiable. From what we hqve4 seen so far it would seem that any opening up of the economy will be met with a strict lockdown soon after.

Whilst the economic impacts maybe retrieved in the long term, the social costs cannot. Which leads to the final point. Vaccines are on their way – so probably 4/5 months more of restrictions before a return to some sort of normality.

But also remember that the more we intrude into the natural world, the more likely it is that further virus outbreaks will occur (AIDS, SARS, BIRD FLU, etc.).

Maybe it is time to increase the aid budget in an attempt to reduce the discrepancies in wealth between countries. This would reduce the population explosion in Africa and South Asia. In turn this would reduce the environmental pressure on habitats. We should also invest in using our land more sustainably. I feel a new post coming on!

Again interesting. Areas in Tier 3 with pub shut downs have all had significant reductions in cases. Eastern England has seen big rises – due to shopping? So locked own seems to work, but coming out of lockdown as in Wales seems to have made things worse! 2 weeks is obviously not enough. Should Bristol and North Somerset come down a tier – I would say no. Lets get the rate down to below 50 first.