So whilst the RWP have been able to avoid the carnage that is the Conservative Party by concentrating on royalty, the troops are on manoeuvres! All the right wing fanatics are voicing raising their profiles – Patel, Braverman, Badenock, Mordaunt and Shapps all seem to fancy their chances -IF they keep their seats! I am sure Truss also fancies her chances!
However there is no one from the centre making any noise? Is this due to lack of funding and support from Tufton Street? Whether you agree or not, and I am not overseen!, Starmer took on the left, and Momentum, to regain the centre ground – Sunak and the wets seem to be giving in to the fascists? My analysis of the normal status quo – would be that the moderate Labour Party and a competent Conservative Party would have about 30% each, Reform would be able to whip up 10-15% with huge media coverage and by creating a febril environment on migration; LibDems will perhaps never recover from the coalition and university fees and Nick Cleggs disasterous leadership!; The greens will hover around 5% with zero press support and will hope to build on strong local candidates; The left wing of the Labour Party will be a hidden element for now.
Whilst the rabid Farage will be supported by his cronies in the media we wait to see what support he gets at the polls. Reform did not do well in the local elections – it is very much a a pressure group rather than a political party for all the bollocks stated by Farage. 18% in the polls is not huge – enough to cause considerable damage to mainly the Tories but also Labour, but the Lib.Dems and Greens should come through unscathed. This could produce some interesting geographical outcomes?
This is where I get really interested! Will the Greens take Bristol Central and hold on to Brighton? They may even take Norwich? Then the Lib.Dems for whom (Ed Davey has done a brilliant job!) could clean up in some of the seats in the south and south-west? Will university towns produce a strong Labour vote and overcome the apathy of the young? Will Reform sweep Lincolshire and the coastal margins on the East?
Then the area I have no idea on – the North. Will Labour regain the seats lost to the charlatan Johnson in the ‘Red Wall’? Will there be a disillusionment vote for Reform based on perceptions (correct) that Westminster does not give a shit about the poorer regions (recent Tory handouts are derisory and probably subsumed by feasibility studies by London companies! So it will be interesting to see how Sunderland votes! Will local government results be replicated?
Then – I apologise for not refering to the other nations in the UK – I am based in Somerest and receive the trash media available here! But Scotland and Wales have both had a long term party in power which, it could be argued is not good so one at a time.
Scotland – The SNP have held power for a long time and virtually wiped Labour last time out – the Tories had 1 or 2 seats, maybe? The SNP are in a bit of disarray with first Sturgeon and then Yousaf resigning in difficult circumstance – this should lead to their anhilation at the polls but Ian Blackford and then Stephen Flynn have done a brilliant job at PMQ’s. Scottish Nationalism is also here to stay! So I suspect that the SNP will do OK- although they will lose seats to Labour. The Tories could actually be obliterated even in the Borderlands as their 7 seats look vulnerable to the usual selfich move of Douglas Ross to stand for Westminster – schmuck! LibDems seem to do well in the outlying regions but have not found a real home in Scotland other than the Highlands and Islands (over 700!)
Wales – agin we have a Parliament which has been dominated by Labour – and despite weekly aspertions by the Tory grandees – it has withstood and been quite radical at times! There does not seem to be the same desire for independance as in Scotland perhaps due to huge migration from England way back! So will Plaid Cymru make any inroads? Doubtful due to their lack of radicalism? Lib.Dems could do OK in rural areas as will the greens, but not well enough! Will Reform be a winner in the valleys?
Northern Ireland – I am hesitatnat here as Andy is bit of an expert and local! So it has been totally ignored by the media – and therefore seen to be irrelevant! Personally I think there could be some surprising outcomes ? Will Sinn Fein get more seats, that they will not occupy! Will the Conservatives and their compatriots the DUP lose seats? NI has been a victim of Brexit more than the rest of us! – what will their voters say? The London media seems to not care? They might regret this oversight?