Interesting stats from the ONS. Live births was down 3.1% to 605479 in Eng & Wales in 2022. Also half of all women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday. The fertility rate is about 1.7 (Italy 1.2 and SKorea 0.7). Worldwide only sub-Saharan Africa has a rapidly expanding population.
The population of the UK is rising through migration and given that most migrnts are under 35 one would expect expect that to have an impact on the fertility rate and births. Maybe it does? and the rate for those born here is similar to Italy?
There are many implications. Primary school places will be reduced (by as much as 13%) resulting in redundancies. The working age proportion of the population is set to fall. The population over 65 is set to rise both in numbers and in percentage.
This is happeneing now – and yet there is no discussion. We know tories do not give a shit – they will have pensions and be ok. But the implications for society are immense and growing. Pressures on NHS and the care sector. Need for unskilled workers, demand for higher skilled workers – or will AI have an impact on these and result in a dumbing down?
Will workers be paid more and work less? If so productivity will need to be improved (another dumbing down?). Will housing need to take these stats into account? Perhaps smaller housing with communial gardens? Older people taking on childcare to free people up for older aged care?
Age distribution will possibly become a bigger factor? Inner cities becoming the home of young adults whilst families populate the suburbs and villages. So where will old people go? Being well into that category I would like to continue to live where I am. However it is not perfect with the doctor in the next village, limited shopping and a group of christians dominating both church and village hall and subsequent groups! The majority of the under 65’s work away and shop and play away! I am sure some have never set foot in the village shop.
Education will at last need to change – traditional skills are superflous in a future scenario. Thinking skills are likely to become more important and maybe schools need to reduce the traditional school day hours and add super activites for at least 4 hours with different staff? A division between academic and artistic/fitness/fun?
Migration – at present it will need to continue until society can be restructured to take into account the changes happening. Asylum will increasingly be needed for climatic and environmental disasters (when will the superpowers wake up to the need for them to accept their responsibility?). Sub-Saharan Africa has been left to France and Russia for too long (with an input from USA). China has invested millions in infrastructure and raw material extraction. Surely it could become the power generator for Europe (a plan proposed many times! But the political turmoil caused by the underinvestment in the area has prevented large scale projects.
I have not mentioned culture – is this the elephant in the room? Are we all frightened of the basic culture we grew up with being modified or changed? I guess that in some areas the changes have been too fast. Wearing the burkah is maybe a symptom of this – after all what could be more inocuous than wearing a face covering? But it comes back to need to conform – children following the same fashions, joining in with activities that we know are wrong? More multi-cultural activities are needed in communities – who does not enjoy a taste of something different!