Much has been made of the lack of preparedness and warnings in the Valencia Region. But are we any better? Certainly the Met Office and Env. Agencies have plans and warnings but do they call wolf too often? And does anyone take any notice anyway? Parents evenings at school 10 years ago continued despite warnings and the evidence outside! During the Covid Crisis it was apparent that there was no locally based planning or organisation. The local council disappeared completely. New housing developments will/may excabated the situation. Locally I believe that a syatem for closing the road to Puxton should be an obvious duty for the council if weather warnings are issued. Churchill traffic lights are often flooded and new housing nearby may increase the problem. As an A road this situation needs attention urgently. Other problems seem to have been solved after floods about 10 years ago. However there are very local situations that can affect one or two houses – contingency plans need addressing.
WEATHER AND STATISTICS
A quiery – what does a prediction of 20% rainfall actually mean? 20% of what. My belief is that they should stick to very likely, likely, possible, unlikely. Then they could add a percentage to which they believe the prediction to be likely. E.g. We are 50% sure that rain is likely could then be interpreted as – we have not got a fucking clue so take a brolly! Things like thunderstorms would need clarification – a 20% chance would mean a 1 in 5 chance – that is meteorology, thunderstorms are limited in both location and duration.
But I revert to – what the fuck does does 40% likelyhood mean – possible or just – we have no fucking clue!
HURRICANE
Beryl is the earliest Category 5. They are usually mid-season (August-September). This one has trashed parts of Venezuela, Grenada and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. It is now heading close to Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. My good friend and ex-student is living there and has said he will send photo’s which I will post here.
WEATHER FORECASTS
It has long been the retort of the forecast sceptics to state ‘look out of the window”. However there is no doubt about the long term changes that are affecting us. Many tories are deniers – why is this not made more public? This spring was the warmest on record but Flaming June has not appeared yet! But it has certainly been the dampest I can remember, and for June cold. But this is where we need the experts to explain how the patterns of change are relentless.; Just because this June was colder than the last one, or even tens, it does not detract from the fact that our climate is wrming up. And with this different weather patterns occur. – and any change brings the need to adapt – something humans can be good at but generally dislike? The number of insects is massively down – swifts have been non-existent round here and I have seen no swallows or house martins.
Surely it is time to ban household chemicals that can be used in the garden with no licence? Farmers may need to adapt as they are having to do with climate change but can a householder not pull up a weed if they want to? My garden is the only haven along the road at the moment – I am hoping for lizards and snakes as well as hedgehogs and foxes! I have an insect hotel up but it is empty!
OK – Positives – the flame lily by the front door is, Well doubling back having hit the 8ft ceiling and has lots of flowers forming – post to follow. And the sun is shining – hopefully tomatoes will be on stream next week.
Gluggaveður
The Icelandic word gluggaveður, which translates as ‘window-weather’, refers to weather that is good to watch from your window, appropriate for today!
SNOW
The Daily Star is remarkable for its animal amd weather stories – headlines much better than the Sun! So I decided to see where its forecast of a snow bomb came from. The following was found
Mercury readings could drop as low as -7C in parts of Scotland, with snowfall spanning a 436-mile radius from Inverness in Scotland to Reading. Weather maps from WXCharts show the possibility of snowfall on November 29, while Wales and Northern Ireland could be swamped with rain.
And the charts show snow continuing into next month with up to 50 centimetres possibly falling on December 3 in Scotland. James Madden from Exacta Weather said it could get even colder depending on the impact of a sudden stratospheric warming event.
Howeverbthe Met Office prediction for 29Nov -6 Dec is as follows Most likely starting dry, settled and colder than average across the UK with widespread morning frost. Outbreaks of rain and slightly milder conditions are however soon likely to arrive into the northwest, spreading southeast to many parts. The early part of next week is most likely to be characterised by light winds and a mixture of wetter, cloudier conditions and colder, brighter and drier conditions, before winds from a broadly northwesterly direction become more established. These leading to periods of wet or showery weather focussed in the northwest of the UK, and largely dry weather elsewhere. Temperatures overall are most likely to be just a little colder than average, with only a very small chance of something much colder and wintry developing from mid to late next week.
Frost seems lkely here in North Somerset on 29th November.
WEATHER
It has been wet recently. I emptied a bucket about 2 weeks ago and it is now full again. the soil is saturated – a drive along rural roads is like navigating a river. The forecast is for more rain starting early morning and lasting most of the day. It is a credit to the Environment Agency that flooding has not occured around here. However much new housing has been built on flood plains and I wonder how much the flood defences can cope with.
WEATHER
The Met Office has announced another Yellow warning for rain here. We have missed most of the heavy stuff from Ciaran but have had a period of persistant wettish weather. The Met Office is correct that sodden ground may lead to flooding, but the public will be wary of the “crying wolf’ aspect. We had a wind warning for Ciaran but nothing of note happened. Could the met office please publish cumulative statistics to support warnings where the event itself is not notable, but is part of a chain of events.
WEATHER
Records continue to tumble. A Swiss Met Office balloon reached its highest ever before being at 0C – at 5300 m. Southern Europe is braced for a new heat wave with temps above 40C. In Canada the military is sent to help fight the wildfire (Shoot them?) and 35000 have been placed under evacuation orders. Tropical Storm Hilary continues to bring copious rainfall, despite the wind speed falling, to s.California and Nevada. 15 natural disasters costing more than $1bilIion so far this year (another record) wonder what is happening elsewhere?
We know that governments can get their acts together when faced with catastrophe – in this country as a reaction. Corporations will have to take a hit, globalisation reassessed. Environmental damage costed and paid to a fund which could invest in insulation and green energy, local food production and scientific research.
To kick start this fund we could have a 90% tax on increases is net payments to executives (to include bonus and wage hikes).
Remember that we have not seen hikes in sea level yet – sea level rise + low pressure + high onshore winds could mean disasters across the world including the UK. 107.9 million people live within 1m of sea level, 431m within 6m. A refugee crisis in the making? When will London rebuild the Thames Barrier – starting the work is getting urgent!
Time for joined up thinking – get environmental groups, and people like Marcus Rashford and Jamie Oliver together with Dale Vince and Chris Packham, then Marina Purkiss and Gemma Forte and Zac Goldsmith (if he can leave racist comments aside!)..
HURRICANES
NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.