A quiery – what does a prediction of 20% rainfall actually mean? 20% of what. My belief is that they should stick to very likely, likely, possible, unlikely. Then they could add a percentage to which they believe the prediction to be likely. E.g. We are 50% sure that rain is likely could then be interpreted as – we have not got a fucking clue so take a brolly! Things like thunderstorms would need clarification – a 20% chance would mean a 1 in 5 chance – that is meteorology, thunderstorms are limited in both location and duration.
But I revert to – what the fuck does does 40% likelyhood mean – possible or just – we have no fucking clue!