TOO EARLY?

Trump must be wondering whether his bombast is working? Actually there is no way he would have self doubt – BUT he should.

Truce in Gaza was just an illusion/ploy by the Israeli Government to get some hostages home. Their killing spree continues without comment by the. USA.

Ukraine ceasefire seems unattainable without Russia being willing to withdraw, at least partially.

The US economy is looking shaky. stock markets down, GDP$ down, inflation rising, trade balance up, $ down against basket of currencies down, consumer spending down.

Of greater concern was his call for a judge to be impeached for having the temerity to question his ruling on Venezuelan migrants. This has been condemned by the head of the Right Wing US Supreme Court.

Meanwhile Tesla shares continue to be down 44% on the year. Meanwhile Chinese competitor BYD claims to have developed a battery that can be charged in 5 minutes (although it longevity is questioned). Sales of Tesla are down considerably (By 80% in some countries) across the world. And whilst Space X is very profitable we have yet to see real competition. Twitter remains at a low share price. Trump says he will hunt down the protesters against Tesla – strange behaviour in public by a president.

What is next? An invasion of Greenland would be simple to accomplish, but massively unpopular worldwide, and pobably at home apart from the MAGA lobotomists.

In the UK the government announce plans to cut £5billion from benefits. A projected cost of £70billion in sickness benefits seems too high. Mental problems are not easy to identify and measure – but I suspect that a decent income and affordable rent/living space would cure many! Yes the rich have mental problems, but taking away concerns about finance, having a financial cushion, security of tenure – would I suspect take many out of the equation. I hope I am not being heartless or naive here? My answer to the problem would be to address the housing debacle that the last government promoted. Make companies over a certain size pay their workers according to a fixed formulae – e.g. a minimum of 10% of CEO salary or guaranteed profit sharing. Start ups and small firms would have partial exemption.

A lot of my thoughts appear to be “hippy” – but they are sensible! It works for Riverford Foods, and John Lewis (Ok a few blips here – but is is heartening to see the model being adapted for long term growth? Provisos here!)

FACT CHECKING

We all have access to the internet – a friend mentioned why he did not want to purchase an EV Car. On fact checking – his arguments were not always correct! Cost of servicing, battery life and charging availability were all false. He does have genuine concerns that are relevant, but his argument against is no where near as strong as he made out!

Today we see in the news Badenoch spouting ignorance and hyperbole about net zero by 2050. So a fact check for you https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-scary-sounding-numbers-are-being-used-to-mislead-the-uk-about-net-zero/

Her argument for not meeting it is that other countries will not. That is LAME. The same argument is used against recycling. But every little bit helps!

Tomatoes

Weather is still freezing at night – frost last night, but looks like warming up by Wednesday 17C day time and 5/6C at night, so I will get planting seeds – I have a heater for the greenhouse if necessary! – so that will be the tomatoes, red pepper, and some herbs like basil. I also have ordered some pots for the snake plant which needs splitting. The size they are at, are going for £125+ online at at the garden centre! I have given a couple away to Holly and Kate, and Aaron has asked if he can have one. They make a great present as they are quite prectacular when over a metre high with a dozen leaves. I am not being tight but it costs me a pot and soil, and the reciepiant things the world of them!. Martin is coming round to cut the top off the wisteria before it takes the roof off – but the smell of that and the honeysuckle it cohabits with is amazing at dawn – worth standing by it for a few deep breaths to strt the day.

So a steak for lunch with roasties, carrots, broccoli and courgettes fried in garlic butter, I have also made baguettes which are hopefully rising so I can cook them when he leaves and gets home with them still warm for Felix (who loves them – more than me!)

I just entered my FIT – solar panels reading which looks quite small for the last 3 months, but hopefully we will have a sunny spring. I still do not understand why the clocks go back at the start of November – approx 45 days before winter solstice, yet go forward in 2 weeks – over a hundred days after the WS!

TRADE

Trying to understand! If Trump is protecting US steel and aluminium production then Ican see the point. However there are better ways (subsidies?), so this just seems vindictive. I assume that much of the imported steel and aluminium is for processes that add value to the product. The tarriffs will just add to the cost of these products – which if then exported will cost more? Canada is already cutting or adding a tariff to electricity exports. The increased nationalism caused by Trumps actions will also cut trade and therefore wealth between the two nations. Mexico looks more vulnerable, although as a looser and less regulated economy it may find that it can adapt more easily – although the impact of US and other international companies will have a significant impact on tax returns and thus the ability to police migrants and drug traffic?

The EU is responding to sanctions whilst the UK has no plans? Why not? For F sake Labour – stop worrying about the Daily F’ing Mail and do something positive for a change. All we hear from Labour are cuts to benefits, cutting Civil Service jobs and quango’s. Now all these might be necessary – I have no idea, but positive action is needed too. The last govenment earmarked £950 million for EV charging roll out – none of which has been spent! Do it!

And then do some sums! If a householder creates a mini-generator (Solar or wind or water) at their own cost, then they should be guaranteed a fixed price that will repay them in no more than 10 years – yes it is that fucking simple! As a home owner I would then be able to manage my finances accordingly. I am putting up the capital cost which means the govt. does not have to. My village is built largely along a road that is East-West – therefore most houses could have solar panels? The population is reasonably wealthy. This village, with some wind power, could be almost enrgy efficient with little outside cost and energy bills cut massively.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL!

My BlueSky feed made me smile. Firstly Tessla shares down 13.08% and second – France is stating that the money paid to support the USA War of Independance was a loan and is demanding $150 trillion in interest. Will Trump see the hypocrisy of his stance on making Ukraine repay money given as a guarantee in return for Ukraine getting rid of nuclear weapons! Thirdly – Musk, Zuckenberg and Bezos have lost $210 billion since attending Trumps inauguration!

ABSURD

There is a debate ensuing about electrcity pricing! On one side the firm Octopus advocates local pricing supported by Ofgen whilst the rest of the energy companies are opposed. My thinking is driven by geography! The least populated and also some of the poorest parts of Britain are situated near sites suitable for wind turbines and tidal power and have space for solar. If energy became cheaper it would attract industry and alleviate the stress on the South East. The National Grid is undergoing a multi-billion pound refit which will probably still be needed, but maybe less pylons will be necessary if more energy is used locally. We need to avoid the situation where we shut down and pay for wind turbines to be shut off when it is windy, and at the same time import electricity for Norway!

Greater local energy production would also make the country less vulnerable to either physical or cyber attack.

London and the south east have less ability to generate electricity. I am sure the energy companies are happy with the status quo that delivers them large profits. I am also sure the RWP are preparing ludicrous arguments for either option Milliband choses!

I hear people complaining that it is Labours fault for rising energy prices (this is partially the fault of Labour which pledged to reduce the costs). However it is a no brainer economically to not back renewables! Only those who have shares in energy companies and pension funds would disagree.

My own example of solar panels works here. I was fortunate enough to be able to have the cash for the panels and installation – it took 7 years to write this sum off with lower energy bills. So a government scheme that added the cost to a mortgage with maybe 5% interest would take maybe 9 or 10 years to pay off. Oh and I am on a guaranteed sum from the govt. The sums get confusing, but if people are willing to put up the cost of power generation as individuals, it makes total sense to guarantee them a price that rewards their investment – I believe that nuclear power plants are offered nearly double the guaranteed price.

SUNDAY

Welcome to a new world. Trump has said that he will get Greenland by whatever means! China says it is prepared to fight a trade war or any other type of war; Ukraine is under increasing attack by Russian drones whilst Trump suspends arms aid and intelligence (he really is on Russia’s side).

So we have a new world order. USA/Russia: China: and Europe. I am not sure where that leaves economic giants like Japan and S.Korea, or the growing might of India? NZ post Ahern is firmly placing itself in the USA camp and Australia is avoiding the limelight for now! South America is a mix of swinging left/right governments and has not gained attention from Trump – yet! Renaming the Gulf of Mexico is firstly pathetic but might make him turn attention to the European affiliations of many of the Caribbean Islands. What does American isolationism mean for Taiwan, or perhaps more imminently the disputed islands in the Sea of China? Should Indonesia and Philippines be concerned? I guess Africa is just seen as a source of minerals – but China has been making progress in many countries. South Africa appears rooted in Europe.

On the domestic front Starmer seems to be doing OK as a world leader – however we have had a poor team for years, to compare him with! Johnson, Truss, even Sunak appeared disinterested! And Cameron appeared like an Eton School Boy in a debating competition! Fortunately for him it has taken the spotlight off domestic policy – which is what he needs if his plans are to come to fruition?

NHS and Civil Service reforms will take years to have an effect – trade deals with whoever, hopefully Europe, will also take time to bear fruit. It is also interesting that the farmers are still protesting – the RWPress seem to think this issue is worth pursuing despite evidence to the contrary! In general they seem to have tasked “journalists” with finding obscure cases of migrant misbehaviour or criminality, and stating this as government policy or promoted by the ICJ? That or having a go at Meghan for being coloured, divorced, annoying, a woman, whatever! We should get this one sorted and give them DNA tests!

Oh and Alfred is casusing mayhem in NSW, and https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/2024/

EUROPE

Most of Europe is united behind the Ukraine with varying amounts of enthusiasm. Only Hungary maintains a pro-Moscow stance with the right wing President Orban. The right wing parties across Europe are disorientated! Most have come out for Ukraine.

Meanwhile back home – how many MP’s does a Party need to start an internal fight? Reform Party has managed it with 5 M.P.s (1 now suspended from the Party)! To the tune of 10 green bottles “there were 5 absolute shits sitting in Parliament, and if one absolute shit should accidentally fall (or be pushed). …. etc. There are smiles all round here! And the R-W press are basically fucked. Reform fighting amongst themselves, Trump proving to be a right wing arsehole, their targets are limited. Meghan has been an early candidate but nothing much to report. The Mail has a go at Bercow for claiming travel expenses whilst speaker that seem exorbitant – but how many tories will be cringing and using a shredder!

So Europe might become closer rather than splitting apart. The UK should certainly be maximising trade deals across te channel. The Euro may become a challenge to the dollar – that would really piss Trump off. It may also be of concern that the UK is dependant on the US for its trident missiles – for which we pay £3billion a year! Perhaps we should align with the French nuclear umbrella – or even just not bother – how many nukes does it take to fuck earth? Cynical – moi?

Oh well – arguments against the EU are diminishing – an European Army arrangement seems sensible, and maybe therefore an economic alignment. The Chinese proverb “May you live in interesting times” has not been so relevant in my life time.

WORLD

It gets boring talking about Trump all the time – he is an idiot. He says that Mexico and Canada would not have to pay tarrifs until April on lots of goods. Errr – thick shit – it is not those countries that pay the tarrifs but the importers i.e. American citizens! China has responded robustly to increased tarrifs. If Trump wants to promote American businesses, why not subsidise them (or reduce their taxes?). He has pledged to reduce taxes so that will not work! Will tax cuts (mainly for the rich) compensate for higher prices! Eggs seem to be a major issue !

America also seems to have a problem with Fentanyl – I am completely ignorant on this!

Most Britons and West Europeans (In order, UK, Germany,Spain, France, Italy) believe Trump is a threat to peace in Europe – this is only marginally less than Putin! Italy comes out as less anti-Trump, and less happy with spending on defence of Ukraine. Today Russia launched a large attack on Ukraines energy infrastructure – did Trump OK this? He is denying Ukraine intelligence reports so whether or not he knew he basically approved the attack.

Trump says that Ukraine started the war by wanting to join NATO, By the same argument Israel started the war with Hamas by its actions in Gaza and the West Bank? Can anyone explain the difference? Cries of anti-semitism will be ignored.

VISCREAL

I am not sure, as ever about using a new word (to me) but I want a word that describes a very deep seated hatred of the orange twat! He has threatened both Hamas and Ukraine with the same dictat – do as I tell you or else. He does this whilst siding with Israel and Russia. He sees Hamas as a crushiable organisation with no consequences for himself – ‘all actions have consequences Dickhead!’. The Ukraine is more complicated – I honestly think he is trying to undermine Europe and cause chaos so that American companies can clean up! Greenland and Panama maybe more fanciful notions in his ancient brain?

China has made itself very clear regarding the “trade war” that Trump has started. Or any other type of war! Taiwan should be worried – has protection by the USA enabled its existence? That could end soon? So Trump farts about claiming to be the great peace provider. But the reality is that the world is becoming more dangerous by the second! American hegmony has enabled peace in most countries for the last 70 years. No longer.

His acolytes have already proposed him for the Nobel Peace Prize – what a fucking laugh. The man who may cause more deaths than any other POTUS? His reduction in the Aid budget alone may do this.