TRUMP

I am not a pessimist, but do panic! So to counter this I am playing what if! He wins.

Definitely not good for America, but we saw last time that a lot of what he says will not happen. Perhaps the worst thing he did last time was the stuffing of right wingers into the Supreme Court. Hence the anti-abortion legislation acroos the country. However this is not generally popular. Will Congress allow him extra powers? States do not always swing red or blue with the president. Musk is a more concerning figure – he has stated that he would like to see a crash in the dollar, whether Trump is party to this I know not, will Musk force a U Turn on carbon fuels? The USA is also less taxed than we accept here. The U.S. economy has been doing OK and it is unlikely that Trump would disrupt that – he does not appear to be ideologically driven, just ego-driven

World wide there are issues! Would he cut funding for NATO – realistically why should America subsidise one of its main competitors Europe. I am sure he admires Putin personally, but is he daft enough to act suppline before him. The same is true of Xi Jinping. Both are Democratic dictators (is that a possibility or an oxymoron?). America’s power as a superpower has diminished Israel ignores advice and warnings without hesitation. However there are hidden influences there? But should Taiwan be worried? Probably but more in the long term. Eastern Europe – recent election in Georgia has showing growing Russian influence. Will Trump allow that influence to be converted into military action? Latvia has already had cyber attacks. Hungary is already sucking up and Poland must be concerned.

Russian influence world wide has not diminished with Western sanctions – rather it has just spread east. China and especially India are now buddying up due to natural resources in Russias control. Russia also seems to be playing a role in destabilising North Africa? Given the solar potential of the Saharan and Mahreb countries this is not surprising.

Back to Musk – he will find it easier to deal with dictators who can be bribed rather than democracies where public opinion is not so esily swayed (although the British media do their bit!).

Not bad for a Saturday morning before 10.17am. Levant prepared but I am still not happy with Millie! I have been to supermarket, done the papers at the shop. Stewed apple next!

CLIMATE CHANGE

Much has been made of the lack of preparedness and warnings in the Valencia Region. But are we any better? Certainly the Met Office and Env. Agencies have plans and warnings but do they call wolf too often? And does anyone take any notice anyway? Parents evenings at school 10 years ago continued despite warnings and the evidence outside! During the Covid Crisis it was apparent that there was no locally based planning or organisation. The local council disappeared completely. New housing developments will/may excabated the situation. Locally I believe that a syatem for closing the road to Puxton should be an obvious duty for the council if weather warnings are issued. Churchill traffic lights are often flooded and new housing nearby may increase the problem. As an A road this situation needs attention urgently. Other problems seem to have been solved after floods about 10 years ago. However there are very local situations that can affect one or two houses – contingency plans need addressing.

CLIMATE CHANGE

So we have had the budget. Personally it seemed OK, But nothing much on the environment – only an increase in tax on private jet passengers which no one should have a cause to complain about (who the fuck actually needs a private jet of their own?). Fuel tax remains unchanged which is probably sensible for businesses. The only controversial one I have seen is the cut to inheritance credits for farms? However the elephant in the room – climate change was not mentioned. I was expecting the announcement of a major investment in the Green Energy Bank or whatever it is called. Just investment in carbon capture which is purely to appease the oil companies – carry on polluting and we will invest in the clean up. So it was an economists budget which will appease most of those who voted Labour.

FERTILITY RATE

Something I am qualified to comment on! So Uk rate is 1.44 which is half that from 1963. Add in a further complication about the age of mothers and we have a demographic problem that has epic implications. Let me simplify this – women are having fewer kids, woman are having kids later, the % of working aged people is shrinking quite rapidly. Add in long covid and mental health issues and this becomes a crisis.

AI and robots may help with the job scenario. But fortunately we are not the first country to face this situation, South Korea, Italy, Hungary and others are already facing up to the problem. The immediate answer that comes to mind is migration? Some areas of London already have nearly 100% of births to non-white parents. Not a problem to me but some will object.

I also have an environmental concern about the growth of our population – both UK and world. So we have fewer workers and more old needing aid. The economics need to be spelt out – and fast.

TAX

Interesting whinging on LBC – restaurant owner complains that the minimum wage rise will affect his business and then complains that people do not have the money to eat out. Has he not heard of Ford economics? Low earners tend to spend their wages locally – FACT. The rich will not. But the rich invest money in business? Bullshit, they invest in hedge funds and FTSE100 firms (which pay their directors hundreds of millions. CGT should be at least equal to income tax, a tax on squirrelled wealth should not be less than that on labour.

So tax the rich – easy, few to complain unless you count the gullible fuckers who read the trash press! If labour really want to equalise society they will assess carefully the housing market.Bring housing costs down and everyone except the rich will be better off. So building more – especially within cites, to reduce transport and utility costs. But also increase CGT on property.

A conundrum – I bought this house 25 years ago’ish for £170000 and it is now worth approx £400000>. Nice! I paid off the loan with interest so probably at least £100000 profit. I would hope to pass on money to the kids as the housing market has been cruel to them. But if I was asked if a 50% on the £100000 profit was fair I would have to say yes! This sum is easy as I do not move often – Maybe there should be a start date? I suggest 2016 (that fateful year!). And then additions to houses and improvements? Yes complicated but a tax on land would be equable?

JENRICK

has genuinely lost the plot! he “claimed that the debate about reparations had “seeped into our national debate through universities overrun by leftists peddling pseudo-Marxist gibberish to impressionable undergraduates”. He knows much about gibberish and little about history. We did not colonise these territories as a benign superpower wishing to instal a fair and democratic society. We forcefully occupied these countries to extract wealth from them and to entrench or miliatary power on the oceans and seas of the world. Whether we were better or worse than what came before or after is basically irrelevant compared to what we did when we were the colonialist power.

If his nonsensical diatribe wins him votes it really does reflect very badly on Conservative members! Manny Shinwell is looking increasingly wrong when forced to make a statement to Parliament “….not all Conservatives are liars”. However the current trend of rewriting history is a dispicable one. I cannot be bothered to point out the intellectual reasons that Jenrick is wrong – he is also guilty of attempted fraud via his time as Housing Minister and guilty of one of the most pointless vindictive acts perpertrated by the last government – painting over a mural designed to make children more comfortable. What a fucking bastard!

MILLIE

My sour dough starter – I am sorry Millie – I have got you all wrong! I think we need a few days to sort it out. I will transfer to a bigger pot and then keep out of the fridge and feed every day for 5 days – and then it will be baguette time, and pizza!

Menhiers – I think it maybe largely psychosomatic! I woke up this morning and felt shit! Not dizzy but almost? Then Tams and Tom and Corinne and Ottilie came round – no probs! they left with a couple of trays of goodies as did Maz and Matthew. Still got Martin and Holly to clear the decks of jam and pickles and chutney!

EVERYDAY IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER!

I guess that could be death, but I was thinking about the Budget and then the USA election. Firstly the latter – I personally find it unbelievable that so many Americans love the orange twat! But if I think about how the UK would have voted in the last election with Johnson instead of Sunak – I am filled with despair! It would have been close and I suspect Boris would have won! But ttf he didn’t.

So the budget – the wankers on the right have been predicting all sorts of doom and destruction – but we will have to see what the lady draws out of the battered red box on the day.

Voting – I think that most people vote on the economy, how it affects them, etc. Racism and bigotry win in binary contests, like Brexit. So are the left panicing unnecessarily over Trump? He has a vocal hardcore of supporters and Musk!

FOOD PARCELS FOR CHILDREN

Just making a list : Mangoes, garlics, herbs, lemon drizzle, pickled onions, green tomato chutney, strawberry jam, apples but Millie is misbehaving so no bread – I bought a loaf this morning for the first time in 4/5 weeks. I am thinking I might make another batch of pickled onions, and then need to practice with pastry for christmassy cookies, I have lots of cinnamon, star anise, mace – typing this makes me realise it is xmas cake making time! I might make a few smaller cakes this year, I have the tins. And then a quandary – Matthew is lactose intolerant, but I will ask him today what he has, then there is Matthew ‘the egg man’ who is diabetic, and Kate who is just weirdly picky (no glace cherries, apricots, almond,s, – and then tomatoes, onions, olives, coconut,), and then Jaimie with no currants or raisins! Erin is easy with just being a veggie – only affects main course. Please note that my children do not have eating anomalies, they always ate whatever they were given!

DIET

Britain had developed a certain qudos for the innovative restaurants that abounded before Covid. However this masked the growth of take aways and more generally UPFoods. Pre-made dinners are common and relatively cheap. Our children are provided with this in schools, pot noodles are cheap easy and quick in the shortened lunchtimes. Jamie Oliver did his best but the media has conspired against him.