Author: Richard

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TRADE

Who knows what the impact will be? I don’t and most economists and business owners don’t.

If successful America will build a manufacturing base – images of fat Americans with sewing machines are proliferating on social media. Estimates of clothing price hikes are about 33%. Many electronic devices have parts from many countries (even jeans have components from up to 15 countries. It will take years to develop supply chains within the USA. Most manufacturing involves more than one country.

Questions with no answers yet – Will China and other Asian countries dump goods in Europe? How will poorer indebted countries cope? How will the EU and UK cope? Will some Americans be forced into poverty? Does America have the skill sets to take up manufacturing – it was 50 years ago for many industries. How long will states like CA, NY and Illinois accept Trumps dictatorship? The senate has 100 members, 2 from each state regardless of population. We saw Truss attempting to do trade deals with individual states – can they still do this? And if so, how will Trump react? Do trade wars lead to armed wars? Vietnam and Indonesia will probably align with China, Philippines with the USA? Tensions over Taiwan will increase. Chinese nationals are said to be fighting with Russia in Ukraine – are they official or mercenaries? How will the world react to the appropriation of Gaza into Israel (Trump like it – but right minded people do not)!

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WATER

So no rainfall for the UK until at least Saturday!. A couple of heathland fires in Scotland does not bode well for the summer. How long before our dreadful water companies impose hosepipe bans. With all the house building that has happened and will continue I have not seen plans for any new reservoirs. And with lower river flows the impact of sewage dumping will increase. I reckon I can go about a month with the watering butts for the garden and do the hanging baskets from shower water if necessary.

Tomato plants are looking good, chillies have not appeared so I moved them to the greenhouse. Planted sweet chilli and lemon coriander and Californian Poppy seeds. Plug plants also looking good. Lemon tree on patio seems to have survived but one in front not looking good. Vine also seems to be dead! Apple blossom is coming out at the same time as the bluebells, new apricot tree is later than I expected. I have still got room for more seeds so greek basil and sweet basil. i will wait and see what comes up – I am hoping that the chicory, evening primrose and will reappear and that the 10 roses will flourish. I still have the bee hotel to put up.

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POLITICS

With Trump trashing the worlds economic order the people of Britain will have to make decisions. Maintain public services and pay more tax, or lose them for ever! Yes it is that simple!

What Starmer must not do is stop investing for the future, Net Zero will pay dividends in the future with energy costs, environmental subsidies for farms is a no brainer, but then the welfare bill! I personally would raise the minimum wage to make it worth working. My local shop pays the minimum wage but the owners could pay more without harming the business. They also find it hard to recruit – so higher wages would benefit all. Companies like the supermarkets might lose some profits or could pay lower dividends or directors wages and bonus’s.

The papers bang on about the unfeasibility of a wealth tax. Maybe a tax on those earning millions would just result in tax evasion and avoidance. However increasing the tax on those earning over £200000 would be hardr to avoid and would raise much more.- however with higher taxes there should be a tax break for environmental innovations. And now seems to be a good time to take back control of Water Companies. Stock market valuations are low whilst customers payments are at record highs. and an innovative nationalisation – all customers will become shareholders in a way like John Lewis? Incentives to become water friendly and become a more social society. Energy could be the same.

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ENVIRONMENT

OK – trying to find the silver lining in the black clouds created by Trump. Less trade equals less transport pollution – ships are a major contributor to global warming. I am trying to think of another but can’t.

I bet the penguins on Heard and Mcdonald Islands must be well pissed off – to come to the attention of the world? As for the British government, we seem to be caving at every opportunity. Tax breaks for the richest companies in the world, to enable our foreign owned car and pharmaceutical companies to trade with the USA. Basically F.Off!

Stock markets crumble – are they a better barometer than politicians and the press? I would guess so – they have jobs and money on the line that cannot be covered by clever rhetoric. e.g. The government and the press thought Truss and Kwartang’s budget was brilliant but the stock market tanked it. Time will tell. The UK and Europe and others will find new markets, will China start dumping products on Europe? Will the USA policy result in a manufacturing boom in America or high inflation? Supply chains have become complicated so new factories in the US will find the cost of tariffs high. This will take months to play out, but there are unlikely to be many winners.

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New idea

Predicting the papers headlines

Sun and Star will go for Russell Brands rape charge. Guardian might go with Prince Andrews spy link? Mail might go with low sentence of woman convicted of child murder? The Times must surely lead on stock market tumbles? Other options – Gaza deaths of aid workers 5%, Frog face for a stupid comment on the Express. Torygraph will go for some Labour minister, prefably a woman who has done something they think is wrong? Either the last two might go for Birmingham and build up of rubbish and rats. Star could also go for this.

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OMG WHAT A PLONKER!

So Trump says tariffs are going well – that is a bit like a football match and the teams line up – and saying that the match is going well! Stock markets around the world are falling, American businesses are having to pay more for raw materials, even if the product replaces imported ones. Other countries have not responded with their own tariffs – yet.

It makes no sense logically to impose tariffs on countries like the UK which have a nagative trade balance with the States? Personally I believe there are better ways to hit back rather than imposing tariffs in return. Making on line warehouse firms like Amazon pay high street rents would benefit the High Street too. Reciprocal tariffs will add to inflation at a time when firms are already struggling with new taxes and wages. The on line safety law should give a warning to social media companies – alternatives are available! Clamping down on the use of tax havens would be a brilliant start too.

Much is being said about pension funds. Those paying in will get more shares for their contribution than in the past, those like me with smallish pension pots will see their value decrease, but unless actively using the capital it makes little difference. So the press will make a big deal about nothing (except for the few caught. The press have made headlines with $trillions wiped off value – but then when you look at the figures it is a max of 5% fall so far. That might add up to trillions, but for the likes of me it means nothing even though I have a pension fund.

And the weather – temperatures are up but with a cold east wind it does not feel like it! It is windy. Just watered the greenhouse and tomato plants are doing well, as are the bedding plants for the hanging baskets, which are full already. I have planted nastutiumas I actually love eating them – other fads are ok, e.g. avocado – its ok but bland?

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TARIFFS

Starmer is running scared of Trump, is he really going to reduce tax on the social media companies? I will boycott with no personal discomfort the following: Hershey’s, Kellogg’s, Heinz, Del Monte, Duncan Hines, and brands like A&W, A1 Steak Sauce, Bazooka, Betty Crocker, Canada Dry, Cap’n Crunch, Fanta, Frank’s, General Mills, Grandma’s Molasses, Haribo, Hawaiian Punch, and Heinz.  I would add in McDonalds and please can we have alternatives to Amazon?

And at the same time the State Department of the US Government is challenging OFCOM over the Online Safety Act. The perverts say it challenges free speech – FFS just tell them to piss off! How can they defend those who wish to harass a young girl who has been raped? (possibly by a family member).

And then to really piss me off there was another front page article on the Guardian tody on how Israeli troops had executed Palestinian medics and aid workers.

And also inside the paper was an article about butterfly numbers down for 51 of 59 native species. PS. How many can you name?

In fact the world seems to have taken April Fool’s Day to heart – I am not a philosopher BUT can anyone who is explain what the crap that is happening?

Badenoch is backing the extreme views of the fascists – why?

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TRADE

So the orange bastard is talking about a 25% on all UK andEU imports, using as an excuse that we charge VAT on imports and the US does not. I guess that explains why many consumer products are cheaper in the US. US manufacturers also benefited by being forced to become more competitive. However it looks like we might be witnessing the collapse of world trade, or at least as we knew it. If jobs are hit in the UK it will perversely be Farage who benefits! The British public will blame migrants rather than Trump – and still frequent McDonalds, Pizza Hut, etc.

Perhaps Trump should rail aginst the investors who encouraged the move of manufacturing to Mexico, et al. I am sure many are Trump supporters and investors and all American boys!

And Greenland – since when has Greenland become strategically important militarily. Oh since Trump can make money out of the minerals. PS. What religion is Trump? I am absolutely certain it is not Christianity! He worships on the God of Mammon, Plutus and Dis Pater when not worshiping his mirror!

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GLOBAL WARMING

When hearing about arguments regarding the above I have to ask the question “why are you ignoring the evidence?”

So the evidence is not just theoretical – there is the FACT that CO2 and methane are greenhouse gases. There is the FACT that the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen 25% in last 65 years. Sun spot activity can cause fluctuations but the trend is forever upwards. Just because there are variations from place to place and year to year cannot deny the warming trend.

So the FACTS are clear we have a warming world, and CO2 pollution is probably the cause – I say probably because it is possible, but unlikely, that Earth is in a warming phase (evidence points to the opposite.

So the IMPACTS. FACT. Sea level rising with greater coastal erosion. Long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent satellite data show that global sea level is rising, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade being 3.6 mm per year (0.14 inches per year). Tuvalu is a maximum of 2m asl.

FACT. Glaciers which regulate the flow of water to some of the most fertile and densely populated parts of the world are melting and retreating at an alarming rate. This could cause food insecurity and an increase in environmental migration.

FACT. Insects across Europe are in decline along with the subsequent food chain. Insects (bees are the best known) re essential for the production of food. Decline maybe down to pesticides, but due to the fecundity of most insects areas where harmful chemicals have been banned they should be making a comeback.

FACT. Climate has warmed and species that can adapt are moving – northwards in the Hemisphere. Sharks have become more common in UK waters. Plants are flowering earlier whilst animals with a longer lifecycle take longer to change.

Peoples arrogance to other species is affecting the diversity of life on this planet. Arrogant fuckwits like Trump and Musk may believe that money and economics will outwit nature – they are wrong! When Earth flexes its muscles people suffer (Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are becoming stronger and more common.

As the Arctic warms up – and FACT – it is, methane from the permafrost will be released (methane hass 10x the impact of CO2 as a greenhouse effect). And the disappearance of ice will mean the surface is darker and the albedo effect diminished.

So bozos who deny this are probably well below the 100 IQ average – or just greedy fuckers who want the profits of carbon burning rather than safeguard their childrens futue.

FACT. Most people dislike and avoid change and therefore like the status quo. We fucking love our cars and are quite terrified of the proplems of EV’s. Maybe we need to consider less travel?

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PLANTS

Just planted :- lobelia ultra cascade; Nicotina eu de cologne; Petunia double orchid; petunia frenzy; Rudbeckle all sorts; Verbena quarts; bacopia Snowtopia; B.Lotto; B. Ormandy; gazania tiger stripes; geranium jackpot; impatiens busy lizzie island. I will put rest of lavender out next week.