Category: Politics

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TRADE

Who knows what the impact will be? I don’t and most economists and business owners don’t.

If successful America will build a manufacturing base – images of fat Americans with sewing machines are proliferating on social media. Estimates of clothing price hikes are about 33%. Many electronic devices have parts from many countries (even jeans have components from up to 15 countries. It will take years to develop supply chains within the USA. Most manufacturing involves more than one country.

Questions with no answers yet – Will China and other Asian countries dump goods in Europe? How will poorer indebted countries cope? How will the EU and UK cope? Will some Americans be forced into poverty? Does America have the skill sets to take up manufacturing – it was 50 years ago for many industries. How long will states like CA, NY and Illinois accept Trumps dictatorship? The senate has 100 members, 2 from each state regardless of population. We saw Truss attempting to do trade deals with individual states – can they still do this? And if so, how will Trump react? Do trade wars lead to armed wars? Vietnam and Indonesia will probably align with China, Philippines with the USA? Tensions over Taiwan will increase. Chinese nationals are said to be fighting with Russia in Ukraine – are they official or mercenaries? How will the world react to the appropriation of Gaza into Israel (Trump like it – but right minded people do not)!

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POLITICS

With Trump trashing the worlds economic order the people of Britain will have to make decisions. Maintain public services and pay more tax, or lose them for ever! Yes it is that simple!

What Starmer must not do is stop investing for the future, Net Zero will pay dividends in the future with energy costs, environmental subsidies for farms is a no brainer, but then the welfare bill! I personally would raise the minimum wage to make it worth working. My local shop pays the minimum wage but the owners could pay more without harming the business. They also find it hard to recruit – so higher wages would benefit all. Companies like the supermarkets might lose some profits or could pay lower dividends or directors wages and bonus’s.

The papers bang on about the unfeasibility of a wealth tax. Maybe a tax on those earning millions would just result in tax evasion and avoidance. However increasing the tax on those earning over £200000 would be hardr to avoid and would raise much more.- however with higher taxes there should be a tax break for environmental innovations. And now seems to be a good time to take back control of Water Companies. Stock market valuations are low whilst customers payments are at record highs. and an innovative nationalisation – all customers will become shareholders in a way like John Lewis? Incentives to become water friendly and become a more social society. Energy could be the same.

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New idea

Predicting the papers headlines

Sun and Star will go for Russell Brands rape charge. Guardian might go with Prince Andrews spy link? Mail might go with low sentence of woman convicted of child murder? The Times must surely lead on stock market tumbles? Other options – Gaza deaths of aid workers 5%, Frog face for a stupid comment on the Express. Torygraph will go for some Labour minister, prefably a woman who has done something they think is wrong? Either the last two might go for Birmingham and build up of rubbish and rats. Star could also go for this.

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OMG WHAT A PLONKER!

So Trump says tariffs are going well – that is a bit like a football match and the teams line up – and saying that the match is going well! Stock markets around the world are falling, American businesses are having to pay more for raw materials, even if the product replaces imported ones. Other countries have not responded with their own tariffs – yet.

It makes no sense logically to impose tariffs on countries like the UK which have a nagative trade balance with the States? Personally I believe there are better ways to hit back rather than imposing tariffs in return. Making on line warehouse firms like Amazon pay high street rents would benefit the High Street too. Reciprocal tariffs will add to inflation at a time when firms are already struggling with new taxes and wages. The on line safety law should give a warning to social media companies – alternatives are available! Clamping down on the use of tax havens would be a brilliant start too.

Much is being said about pension funds. Those paying in will get more shares for their contribution than in the past, those like me with smallish pension pots will see their value decrease, but unless actively using the capital it makes little difference. So the press will make a big deal about nothing (except for the few caught. The press have made headlines with $trillions wiped off value – but then when you look at the figures it is a max of 5% fall so far. That might add up to trillions, but for the likes of me it means nothing even though I have a pension fund.

And the weather – temperatures are up but with a cold east wind it does not feel like it! It is windy. Just watered the greenhouse and tomato plants are doing well, as are the bedding plants for the hanging baskets, which are full already. I have planted nastutiumas I actually love eating them – other fads are ok, e.g. avocado – its ok but bland?

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TARIFFS

Starmer is running scared of Trump, is he really going to reduce tax on the social media companies? I will boycott with no personal discomfort the following: Hershey’s, Kellogg’s, Heinz, Del Monte, Duncan Hines, and brands like A&W, A1 Steak Sauce, Bazooka, Betty Crocker, Canada Dry, Cap’n Crunch, Fanta, Frank’s, General Mills, Grandma’s Molasses, Haribo, Hawaiian Punch, and Heinz.  I would add in McDonalds and please can we have alternatives to Amazon?

And at the same time the State Department of the US Government is challenging OFCOM over the Online Safety Act. The perverts say it challenges free speech – FFS just tell them to piss off! How can they defend those who wish to harass a young girl who has been raped? (possibly by a family member).

And then to really piss me off there was another front page article on the Guardian tody on how Israeli troops had executed Palestinian medics and aid workers.

And also inside the paper was an article about butterfly numbers down for 51 of 59 native species. PS. How many can you name?

In fact the world seems to have taken April Fool’s Day to heart – I am not a philosopher BUT can anyone who is explain what the crap that is happening?

Badenoch is backing the extreme views of the fascists – why?

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TRADE

So the orange bastard is talking about a 25% on all UK andEU imports, using as an excuse that we charge VAT on imports and the US does not. I guess that explains why many consumer products are cheaper in the US. US manufacturers also benefited by being forced to become more competitive. However it looks like we might be witnessing the collapse of world trade, or at least as we knew it. If jobs are hit in the UK it will perversely be Farage who benefits! The British public will blame migrants rather than Trump – and still frequent McDonalds, Pizza Hut, etc.

Perhaps Trump should rail aginst the investors who encouraged the move of manufacturing to Mexico, et al. I am sure many are Trump supporters and investors and all American boys!

And Greenland – since when has Greenland become strategically important militarily. Oh since Trump can make money out of the minerals. PS. What religion is Trump? I am absolutely certain it is not Christianity! He worships on the God of Mammon, Plutus and Dis Pater when not worshiping his mirror!

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GLOBAL WARMING

When hearing about arguments regarding the above I have to ask the question “why are you ignoring the evidence?”

So the evidence is not just theoretical – there is the FACT that CO2 and methane are greenhouse gases. There is the FACT that the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen 25% in last 65 years. Sun spot activity can cause fluctuations but the trend is forever upwards. Just because there are variations from place to place and year to year cannot deny the warming trend.

So the FACTS are clear we have a warming world, and CO2 pollution is probably the cause – I say probably because it is possible, but unlikely, that Earth is in a warming phase (evidence points to the opposite.

So the IMPACTS. FACT. Sea level rising with greater coastal erosion. Long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent satellite data show that global sea level is rising, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade being 3.6 mm per year (0.14 inches per year). Tuvalu is a maximum of 2m asl.

FACT. Glaciers which regulate the flow of water to some of the most fertile and densely populated parts of the world are melting and retreating at an alarming rate. This could cause food insecurity and an increase in environmental migration.

FACT. Insects across Europe are in decline along with the subsequent food chain. Insects (bees are the best known) re essential for the production of food. Decline maybe down to pesticides, but due to the fecundity of most insects areas where harmful chemicals have been banned they should be making a comeback.

FACT. Climate has warmed and species that can adapt are moving – northwards in the Hemisphere. Sharks have become more common in UK waters. Plants are flowering earlier whilst animals with a longer lifecycle take longer to change.

Peoples arrogance to other species is affecting the diversity of life on this planet. Arrogant fuckwits like Trump and Musk may believe that money and economics will outwit nature – they are wrong! When Earth flexes its muscles people suffer (Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are becoming stronger and more common.

As the Arctic warms up – and FACT – it is, methane from the permafrost will be released (methane hass 10x the impact of CO2 as a greenhouse effect). And the disappearance of ice will mean the surface is darker and the albedo effect diminished.

So bozos who deny this are probably well below the 100 IQ average – or just greedy fuckers who want the profits of carbon burning rather than safeguard their childrens futue.

FACT. Most people dislike and avoid change and therefore like the status quo. We fucking love our cars and are quite terrified of the proplems of EV’s. Maybe we need to consider less travel?

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PRESS

The RWPress got a budget they have yerned for – cuts to benefits, increased spending on defence, cuts to the civil service, no overt tax rises. And they now slate Reeves not a budget for hitting the poor! No mention of the mess the last government made, or Trump’s impact on the world economy. She should have gone for a wealth tax – the Pimlico plumber keeps threatening to leave – time for him to FO! But I guess his ego could not stand anonymity? My paper says that 3 million households could lose £1720 in benefits – 3 million! If they are working they are not being paid enough, if their rents are too high cut them! But 3 million on benefits means that we have a fucked up economy and thus society. I think the Tories had appointed a common sense czar – Ester Mcfuckingvie! – I think her main task was to promote an anti-woke war, especially with regard to sexual genders (I am sorry for those struggling as individuals or families – but as far as the general population goes “who gives a fuck”? Only JK Rowling and a few others? My views are limited due to ignorance of the issues but that does not stop others so – Sport, if born with a penis you can only compete as a man unless a special scenario is created; Toilets – bring on cubicles for all – pissing on a wall in view of others is medieval! Public toilets barely exist anymore and establishments should have cubicles – with CCTV if necessary for the communal areas. I am not sure if there are other issues? Hospital wards I know nothing about so no comment.

Education is always more problematic! Unisex toilets makes sense. However education has to take on yet another roll – countering the insiduous penetration of misogynist social media.

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CANADA

I have never been – although I did get the migration papers back in the 1970’s – of course I did not have the bottle to follow through! But I retain a romantic memory of dreams of paddling through lakes and wide open spaces. Should Canada be threatened by Trumps absurd claims that it should become the USA’s 51st state. At least he got the number right this time – unlike with Alaska. The capital of Canada is situated further away from the US than its main cities for a reason. 1775 and 1812 were dates when the USA invaded Canada, unsuccessfully. Now Trump coverts the treasures below the Canadian soil. Every move he makes is stimulated by money – I fucking hate him!

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TOO EARLY?

Trump must be wondering whether his bombast is working? Actually there is no way he would have self doubt – BUT he should.

Truce in Gaza was just an illusion/ploy by the Israeli Government to get some hostages home. Their killing spree continues without comment by the. USA.

Ukraine ceasefire seems unattainable without Russia being willing to withdraw, at least partially.

The US economy is looking shaky. stock markets down, GDP$ down, inflation rising, trade balance up, $ down against basket of currencies down, consumer spending down.

Of greater concern was his call for a judge to be impeached for having the temerity to question his ruling on Venezuelan migrants. This has been condemned by the head of the Right Wing US Supreme Court.

Meanwhile Tesla shares continue to be down 44% on the year. Meanwhile Chinese competitor BYD claims to have developed a battery that can be charged in 5 minutes (although it longevity is questioned). Sales of Tesla are down considerably (By 80% in some countries) across the world. And whilst Space X is very profitable we have yet to see real competition. Twitter remains at a low share price. Trump says he will hunt down the protesters against Tesla – strange behaviour in public by a president.

What is next? An invasion of Greenland would be simple to accomplish, but massively unpopular worldwide, and pobably at home apart from the MAGA lobotomists.

In the UK the government announce plans to cut £5billion from benefits. A projected cost of £70billion in sickness benefits seems too high. Mental problems are not easy to identify and measure – but I suspect that a decent income and affordable rent/living space would cure many! Yes the rich have mental problems, but taking away concerns about finance, having a financial cushion, security of tenure – would I suspect take many out of the equation. I hope I am not being heartless or naive here? My answer to the problem would be to address the housing debacle that the last government promoted. Make companies over a certain size pay their workers according to a fixed formulae – e.g. a minimum of 10% of CEO salary or guaranteed profit sharing. Start ups and small firms would have partial exemption.

A lot of my thoughts appear to be “hippy” – but they are sensible! It works for Riverford Foods, and John Lewis (Ok a few blips here – but is is heartening to see the model being adapted for long term growth? Provisos here!)