I have not discussed this recently. EU attitude to Hungary will be interesting. A country which has democratically voted for a right wing government – Of course a major dilemma for me! How sad that the UK is not able to exert a moderating influence (although Sleaze-Mogg would support them) over general human rights for all.
Ukraine – Russia seems to have accepted defeat in its initial objective of subduing Ukraine. New objectives for Russia seem to be to create superiority in Eastern Ukraine. Here the fighting is likely to become more horrific. Russian forces in the east are buoyed by Chechen fighters and greater expertise, this will mean a prolonged dispute? Russia will want to consolidate the Black Sea coast which Ukraine cannot afford to totally lose? How far will the west go to support Ukraine – economically I am sure the western economies are happy to support the military/economic complex.
Does our absence from the EU make sense in this context? We were first to support Ukraine militarily and have been at the forefront of continued support. Question – would we have been able to do this whilst in the EU? (I think so), and would we have been able to exert greater influence over EU policy? – definitely.
So what is next? A war of attrition seems likely in Eastern Ukraine. The impact of sanctions on he economy of Russia may well result in escalation. My belief is that China will sit the conflict out, maybe taking advantage of the discount oil/gas offered by Russia, but will not align itself. India and Pakistan are also interesting – both nuclear powers. Imran Khan seems to have lost support in Pakistan, whilst in India the populist BJP seems to be continuing its control.