Firstly there are many different shades of government around the world – indeed even our own has become more authoritarian in the past few years. Democracy is a much mis-used or at least one with multiple definitions. In the UK politicians can be elected with less than 30% of the vote, in the USA the money raised would seem to be the key factor, etc. So let us not bang on about democracy.
Secondly it could be said that the West has played a risky game of enrolling former USSR satellites into NATO. Maybe our politicians should have read more world history rather than a jaundiced view of the Empire.
Thirdly there is an elephant in the room. I am sure China is watching closely to consider whether to increase its demands regarding Taiwan. China and Russia are not natural bedfellows, but are both callous enough to exploit each others strengths and weaknesses. I will not be surprised to hear that China is buying Russian oil, gas and other raw materials.
Sanctions by Europe will hurt basically everyone (apart from energy companies) as there is likely to be a sharp spike is energy costs across the world. And the poor will suffer most, as ever was the case.
The UK has already shown its unwillingness to undermine the dealings of the City of London finances. And will blocking oligarchs accounts make a difference? As was pointed out it is Putin who influences the oligarchs, not the other way round – Russia has not had its Magna Carta moment. Although it would have an impact on Tory party funds! and possibly future elections (Johnson’s strange reply about not being successful and the Speaker telling Caroline Lucas to shut up).
Any comments about avoiding western involvement are met other tritely by comments about appeasement. It seems that there is more at stake here than the Ukraine – Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and other Eastern European countries are nervous. Taiwan and perhaps Japn are getting concerned.
I have not mentioned what is still the Number One Superpower – USA. Biden needs to be seen to be tough, but it is doubtful that the American public would support any major deployment of troops – the guys have only just got back from Afghanistan! USA is still the number one superpower. Economically China is challenging but still behind in most areas, culturally the USA is totally dominant, regarding religion Christianity is still alongside Islam. So it comes down to the military. For the likes of Putin it seems like a mid-life crisis – my car/army is bigger than yours. It would seem at present that Russia can match anything the Americans have.
And here we come back to the geopolitics. I am sure NATO (USA) can use bases in :
Since 1997, NATO has expanded east to include more countries such as:
- Hungary
- Czech Republic
- Poland
- Bulgaria
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Romania
- Slovenia
- Albania
- Croatia
Vladimir Putin’s ‘Piece’ Plan for UkraineExposes Seven Years of DeceitPaul Niland
Ukraine does not, of course, pose a threat to Russia militarily. The Russian president fears what Ukraine can become, namely a thriving democracy, and an example of anti-corruption reforms for the post-Soviet space. But these two concepts, now very firmly ensconced in Ukrainian society, pose a threat to the continued rule of Putin and the KGB clique that seized control of Russia with his elevation to Prime Minister, Acting President, and then President at the turn of the millennium.
Ukraine is an imperfect democracy in many ways, but genuine democratic competition thrives here, new parties are formed and can compete for votes, and all of those votes can be relied upon to be counted fairly. Putin’s continued rule relies on the assassination of rival politicians like Boris Nemtsov, or the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny. In Russia opposition is stifled, harassed and divided. That real democracy can exist in a country that was once a part of the Soviet Union haunts Putin’s dreams. Is there something in this list that might suggest a reason for the present situation? I am not suggesting that it is a justification – just understanding it.
Byline times – We see in the heavy-handed police response to any kind of mass gathering or demonstration in Russia. The Kremlin is terrified that a revolution could take root. We can see how Russia came to the assistance of autocrat Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus after the blatant theft of the August 2021 presidential election. We saw the same, too, in recent weeks, when a short-lived uprising in Kazakhstan was put down with brute force costing possibly as many as 200 lives. One of the fastest police movements in the capital of Kazakhstan was aimed to stop protesters from establishing a tent city as a base for permanent protests. Putin knows the history of the Ukrainian Orange Revolution and the Revolution of Dignity and knows that they both started with tent cities.