Is it bad or good timing? In my opinion it is bad. For all Trump’s dementia fuelled posturing and threats America is becoming more and more diplomatically isolated. Therefore it is in no position to use diplomacy to undermine the Mullah’s; and force is not really an option. They could attack police HQ’s with cruise missiles, etc. but the fanatical religious fervour that has kept the theocracy in place is not easily displaced. Russia and China are more sympathetic to the regime as a proxy counter balance to America’s dwindling hegemony. There is no doubt that the repressive regime has slaughtered hundreds if not thousands of protesters. Whilst Iran is multi-ethnic its heartland is where the majority of Persians live with groups like Kurds and Azeri’s living is peripheral areas. As far as I can see there is no rebellion by ethnic groups although the Kurds are possibly better armed than others. There has been no mention of ISIS or al-quada groups supporting the regime. There appears to be no geographical discrepancies in the spread of unrest. So what happens next? I have NFC! The regieme seems strong enough at present – but if it can quell the riots it will lead to greater clampdowns and ultimately a change in power? Iran’s economy is suffering from embargoes and increased isolation diplomatically.
What next for Trump? For a President elected on the premise of no more foreign excursions, he has been prolific in foreign interference. This has ramped up recently with military action in Venezuela, Nigeria and threats against Colombia, Cuba and Greenland this year so far! The American industrial/military complex is deep seated and powerful. It needs arms sales and to get them it needs weapons to be fired! Has the reduction of Israeli bombing raids created a lull in the weapons market? Trump only has one negotiating tool – bullying – diplomacy is not the forte of a madman. However Vance could be worse – more calculated and ruthless? PS> Why is the US Government sending hundreds more ICE ‘troops’ into Minnesota? Is he/they trying to ferment civil disorder across the US?