Author: Richard

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AM I SAFER THIS MORNING?

Is anyone? The illegal bombing of Iran has made the world a less safe place. Who is the proxy here, USA or Israel? Is the Iranean regeme any better or worse than Pakistan, India, North Korea, China, USA or Israel. The main reason I would have to negotiate a nuclear safety programme with Iran is that one more bomb is one too many. The regeime is nasty and vindictive, but Israel has slaughtered at least 40000 innocents and has set out to drive a population out of Gaza – genocide. The oft quoted statement that Iran wants to extinguish Israel is not verified and open to interpretation. There is little doubt that this will be their objective from now on.

Despite some geriatric former general stating that America was correct I am pleased that no British bases were used by the planes. Trump has demanded a surrender by Iran – difficult unless there actually is a war, which he has not declared to avoid scrutiny by Congress. Who should they surrender to? It can’t be the USA as they have not declared war, so it is between Trump and Israel. WTF! 90.1 million people should surrender to the orange flea ball? It is unlikely that many Iranians would welcome Trump with open arms, even with their dislike of the government. It seems to me that in many countries there is a 3 way split. A hard conservative right (in this case the Iranean government and its mullahs: Then a liberal leftish third (mainly the young and educated): and a third who go with the flow, believe what they are told to and want to be left alone in peace.? And there will always be a hard core of activists who will sacrifice for their cause – Israel beware!

We can move on from the military action of the bombs – Trump has demanded surrender. Quite what this means is to be seen. Isrel has already ‘taken out’ ‘killed’ at least 2 dozen military leaders and government officials. This did not work out well in Libya, or Iraq, or Syria, or even Persia! The future does not look bright and hopefully not orange!

tbc

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ME

OK I am sitting in the garden looking at all the jobs I ought to do -deadhead a rose bush, clean the patio, sort out the brambles (although that can wait for a month to see if the blackberries are lush or not!), and then the apple tree – lots of new shoots, should I cut them back? And then sticking stickers on the apples for the sparkles – peel them off and they have apples with their initials on! I was thrilled to see a bright red moth, which I think was a cinnabar moth as I saw a couple of cinnabar caterpillars on some ragwort. Also I have never planted evening primrose but am pleased to see it back again – a goldfinch spent several mornings last winter harvesting the seeds. And the chickory is back, growing out of the driveway. Is my garden a mess? Most – I would go for 96% would say so, but the mown laawns are like deserts up and down the street, I have even seen the application of chemicals – but they do not sit on their lawns or play on them, or even camp on them. Green wastelands.

This is a Pretty Woman Lily – smells gorgeous and is by my patio door, so I have to go in and out as much as possible. I think I will put some outside in the garden next year rather than a pot.

https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/feast is well worth a look today!

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WATER COMPANIES

Private investors and hedgefunds want imunity from environmental laws to enable them to pump shit into our rivers and seas with impunity. They also want to be able to raise prices.

So lets be honest – the public has allowed the privatised water companies to raise fund via debts to pay shareholders and executive wages/bonus. Nationalisation will require government funding to replace the infrastructure neglected by greed for 46 years. Nationalisation is not a cheap option – it could have an impact on foreign investment, BUT it is the moral and sensible investment. If nationalised the government should offer ownership to the bill payers, like John Lewis or the co-op. Each £500 paid = 1 share. Not paying dividends at present, but guaranteeing a payout if the companies were ever sold off again?

There are a host of vultures willing to take on Thames Water if the government gives them a free ticket – well tell them to fuck off, and then go further.

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WEATHER

Hot again – I have 2 problems I need your help with regarding the METO forecast. Firstly it always quotes the temperature and then say ‘feels like’ – this is always lower but friends maintain that it could feel like higher. Personally I do not think it can! The actual temperature can be higher due to surroundings but even with no wind and high/low humidity it not possible. The only exception would be sunbathing, but again would the ‘feel like’ temp be lower than a thermometer on the ground next to you?

Secondly – humidity. At present it is a bit muggy and 25C in my living room with the doors and windows open. But the METO says humidity is 58%. I am aware that humidity decreases with temperature as warmer air can hold more moisture – so in winter 90-95% is common without rain. So would it maake more sense to have a feels like humidity, rather than temp on hot days?

Of course I have sunbathed – but logically it is very stupid! Basically baste yourself like roast meat, turn regularly and increase chance of melamona! Oh and get sweaty and a crusty skin.

I am watering the greenhouse 2x a day but still no ripe tomatoes! Roses need constant dead heading, and I am trimming the grass round their base. Pretty woman lily in flower. Raspberries for breakfast and the occasional wild strawberry. – basil doing ok but parsley refuses to even shoot out a little green leaf. I was looking at cook books yesterday – but too hot to cook!

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IRAN

It appears that Israel is acting as a proxy for America in the war with Iran. I know that Trump has a reputation as TACO but his words are frightening. Why is he demanding unconditional surrender when it is Israel doing the fighting. Israel is demanding a regeime change which brings to mind “be careful what you wish for!” . Deposing Saddam and Gadafi in Iraq and Libya has been an unmitigated disaster. Both countries have descended into lawlessness and the civilian population is less safe than it was before.

Another key question is whether the UK could be dragged into the conflict? American airbases may be used to refuel American bombers which could be construed as UK backing if their is an American offensive. The status of Diego Garcia remains uncertain – American base but is it leased by Britain after the recent treaty. British planes have been involved in attacks on te Houtis in Yemen who are/were dependant on Iranian arms. Starmer should tell Trump that he cuts US tariffs to zero or he can fuck off and take his American bases with him.

Will Trump use his on/off tariff war to garner support for military action against Iran -I have no confidence in Starmer being able to stand up against the orange monster. Will America ue its monster concrete busting bombs to destroy Iranian nuclear sites. On the fnancial side it seems that governments can always find the money for war, but not for social reform and support. It took a century to repay loans made during the Napoleonic Wars, and 61 years for WW2. So when Trump boasts about ‘winning WW2″ he was presumably talking about the finance. Does he see Iran in the same way as Gaza – let Israel bomb the fuck out of it, then American finance moves in to rebuild? Who knows what comes next – death and destruction guaranteed – war>diplomacy.

On a positive note it is sunny today – already 22 in my sitting room. I have a pretty umbrella and table on the patio – so fucking middle class! So I will sit out there this afternoon – too hot to do much until the evening. I was going to make a pizza, but too hot – so I bought a quiche – so lazy! Forecast for the next week is sunny and dry with max temps here on Friday. My water butts should last out until the next forecast rain. Apples are looking good and I will get some stick on stencils to put kids names or at least initials on them. I might also thin them out a bit.

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GROOMING

As ever not black or white or bipolar. I understand why governments did not wish to fuel right wing hatred fed by the the horrific media. But ultimately the welfare of the girls and boys involved should have been paramount. The hypocrisy of the Conservatives is, once again astounding, 14 years of doing nothing – one has to assume that they thought the girls were at fault (if white males involved) or that they were as frightened about racist accusations as Labour). I am not sure the inquiry will come up with anything other than a reson to riot. What should happen is an emphasis of how we introduce love into the lives of children abandoned for whatever reason. Pakistani grooming gangs seem to exist – and all the perpertaators should be prosecuted. If there seems to be a cultural problem it needs to be addressed with, not force or law, but compasion and education.

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IRAN

Was Iran moving towards a more liberal/democratic future? We will never now know.

Israel claims that it has destroyed Iranian air defence systems and can thus bomb with impunity. However in a conflict of this size a military advantage does not equate to conquest. Israel said it was taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities – but now it seems that a formerly hidden agenda is coming into play. Attacks on Iran’s infrastructure have increased, including attacks on oil refineries/depots. So the price of oil will rocket and poor nations in particular will suffer. Fuel costs will rise in the UK and the numbskulls will campaign for more oil wells around the UK. However a sensible government will accelerate green energy initiatives – especially home based (that is in and on houses) that are not subject to attack – cyber or otherwise. The National Grid may make sense economically for the big companies, but is vulnerable to attack. Small is beautiful.

The Israeli ‘Shield” may be good – but has been penetrated. I fear the war will escalate – with Trump’s approval.

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AI

Lots of hype – BT announces that AI could cut even more jobs than the 50000 they had announced. So I have done some homework! Yeah – not much but enough to make me happy (the guy who was happy with D,E,N in his A levels). Firstly, there seems to be a lot to still sort out – National Rail AI advised that under 15 tickets were ok for adults, etc. I am sure that large companies will sort this sort of thing out. Big companies – may also come under attack from cyber crime using AI – M&S have not fully recovered after an attack months ago.

But the real cost is  “our Research team estimates that data centres account for 3.5% of US electricity consumption today, and data centre electricity use could be above 5.5% in 2027 and more than 9% by 2030”. With a move to electricity rather than fossil fuels this becomes a huge factor. In a power outage where does the priority lie? Hospitals, houses or AI computers? The latter could be controlling our infrastructure? Governments have a duty to protect the public and this means placing restrictions on big corporations and infrastructure providers.

I omitted the immense use of water for cooling the compters involved in AI. All of which make the Orkneys and Shetland ideal places for the large computers necessary. Cooler temperatures, regular windy days, a tidal rush between islands, and cool water for cooling. Or off the coast of Pembroke. One of the worst places would be Lincolnshire- but the latest plans I have seen are for. ….. of course – presumably on prime farmland too?

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STOP – NOW

Yesterday I stated that Israel may have had a reasonable reason for the strike on Iran. Inevitably Iran struck back and some missiles got through the shield and fatalities occurred. This maust have been factored in by the Israeli government. But again Israel;s response is disproportionate. The escalation by Israel is of concern – they are perhaps the only nuclear country that is likely to use nukes as an offence weapon rather than a last resort one. Even Putin has not used his huge arsenal in the Ukraine. Iran’s religious leaders will be strengthened and whilst Netanyahu may call for the Iranian people to rise up he is talking bullshit. The people of Gaza have not rebelled against Hamas despite the carnage and destruction wrought by Israel. Iran is a theocracy with indoctrination installed in children from an early age (was it true that Iran children were offered two more years at shool if they walked through minefields to clear them?).

Israel has used a huge amount of bombing raids, and ground forces against Hamas and has still not recovered all the hostages. the cost to Israel of the Gaza offensive is estimated to be $250 billion with total costs nearer $400 billion. Of this the USA has According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the United States spent $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel from October 2023 to October 2024. In December 2023, the WSJ report stated that US arms shipments to Israel since the start of the war included 15,000 bombs and 57,000 155mm artillery shells. Trump maybe happy with this but will the American people? Mid terms are coming over the horizon – he has alienated most of the non-knuckle draggers – will he have aenough support after Nov.2026? Or will he pass laws disenfranchising vast swathes of the population?

Back to Iran – its land borders seem secure; Goergia and Turkmenistan to the north; Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east; Turkiye and Iraq to the west maybe its weakest link but nothing is straight forward in this region. Iraq appears to be a mess after meddling by the west and NATO, whilst Turkiye is proving its independence and ability as a mediator wherever possible whilst being a muslim country it is Shia rather than Sunni. So that leaves the south bordered by the Red Sea with Saudi Arabia being the largest neighbour along with the Arab metro states and Oman. So a land force is unlikely to gain much traction. Which leaves air attack and missiles – with probable vast civilian casualties. Has the holocaust done something to Jewish minds that trivilises death of innocents?

For a while it looked like soft diplomacy might make roads into the Shia theocracy, but this will embolden the bigots in Iran, as warmongering has emboldened and strengthened the `jewish bigots.

So today is pessimistic – Without external pressure neither Israel or Iran look likely to back down. And as a major funder of Israel and the worlds leading superpower (despite Trumps attempts to localise it) it is up to America to take a lead (Oh fuck Trump would be looking to build a resort in Tehran as part of the deal? So basically we are fucked – years of conflict and death with no outcome. Bollocks.

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ISRAEL-IRAN

I have no sympathy for Iran – a state where religious fervour is more important than basic human rights. The basic question is whether the world would be safer if the country had nuclear weapons – and the answer must be a wholehearted NO. So was Israel justified in its overnight attack? The answer I have ais a maybe! I am no lover of Israel, but the targeted attack may be escalation, or may put back the nuclear weapons programme. However there is another angle; If Israel can carry out targeted attacks like this one, why is it bombing the fuck out of Gaza and killing so many innocents?

What is certain is a escalation of attacks on Israel by Iran. Where will China and India and Russia position themselves? Even America. trump has already said that the USA was not involved in the attack, apart, that is, from funding the country and supplying weapons and jets. I think I read that Iran had breached nuclear conditions laid down by the UN? Russia presumably has enough on its plate with Ukraine. China and India are broadly supportive of Iran as it irritates America? As a fundamentalist muslim states none of the countries will be over keen to get involved. That then leaves the wealthy Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Neither can be seen to be too vested in Israel as Islamic countries. The EU has an influential pro-Israel lobby but will be hesitant in offering diplomatic support. The same goes for UK,Canada, Norway and Australia whom all condemned Israels actions in Gaza recently.

So the situation is confused and as blurred as ever. Israel can expect more drone and missile attacks but their shield seems to be effective at stopping most (at present). However as Ukraine recently showed – innovation can overcome even a military superpower in attacks. For instance; Israel is dependent on the Sea of Galilee to feed the acquifers that provide water to farms and settlements in the south.

Hamas must be struggling to survive but Hezbollah has a wide range and seems well armed? A concerted attack from Lebanon would probably be repulsed by Israel, but renewal of hostilities from an unstable Syria in the Golan Heights might be difficult. I am envisaging a Battle of Hastings scenario where Israel tries to take Damascus, whilst Lebanon/Hezbollah fights a war of attrition in Labanon and the West Bank receives arms and rises up? Ridiculous – yes-but?!