Are we seeing the begining of the end of the old order. For most of my life I have had two ‘Superpowers’ with the USA being far and away the most dominant. The USA has become much weaker with Trump’s lack of diplomacy and erratic behaviour. Russia may have regained some of its USSR status under Putin but as the world moves away from fossil fuels towards renewables it seems unlikely that the fears of European nations, triggered by Ukraine are unlikely to manifest themselves. Ukraine is a special case and there were divisions here before the Russian invasion. Much of Donetsk and the east is very much influenced by Russia and the former USSR.
My main point is that Europes weakness is also its strength. The small nation states might not have huge military power or economic dominance – but the diversity is also allows diversity and and localised democracy. In the USA California produces 14.5% of GDP and NY 8%. So these 2 states alone contribute nearly a quarter of Trump’s budget for .. anything. The Governor of California and the Mayor of NY are both prominent Trump critics, how long will they allow the orange peril to dictate to their constituents whilst using their tax revenues? The Senate in Congress is an absurd anomaly! Why should North Dakota have equal standing with California?
I am sure the Russian people do not give a shit about Moldova or Latvia – more their ability to feed themselves and heat their homes. However a charismatic leader combined with a monetised political machine can sway their votes (along with threats and coercion). Are we seeing the same thing here with Reform (bank rolled by fossil fuel companies and pro dictatorships)? I think our democracy is too strong, a local election recently in Derbyshire saw the Greens take a seat from Reform. Andy Burnham looks like he will step up and challenge the drift to the right by Starmer. This pattern is repeated across Europe with swings to left and right but generally maintaining an overall middle’s path.
China and India are two new players to the top table. Trump’s tariff games may well causes the diversity of European states to look between the two, and avoid the American hegemony that is increasingly dominated by Musk and his paedo’ific interpretation of freedom of speech.
So who will act to bring down the tec’ bros’ that are increasingly dominating our lives. China maybe, but they would replace with their own versions, India – hopefully Modi is too weak to exert total control, Russia – unlikely; so Europe – definitely has the brain power; does it have the finance to challenge?
