Author: Richard

Interesting article on geopolitical divide in Guardian. Is Russia an ally? UK 0%, EU 2%, USA 5%, Turkey18%, China 32% and India 50%. and basically a similar split on friend or foe. With our almost totally homogenous press we tend to forget that many parts of the world have not forgiven our misdemeanours from the days of Empire. The anti-woke brigade brook no argument that everyone should move on from the past.

What does the survey show? Perhaps just how easily the MSMedia can manipulate public opinion? Perhaps there is a more complicated story to be developed here, rather than Putin should be assassinated and everything will be ok (which several avid Daily Fail readers have told me. Have the EU and NATO been too quick to assimilate former Warsaw Pact countries into their organisations. The Cold Wr happened and with it propaganda by both. sides. Eastern Europe has not been, and is not, a beacon of western democracy (Hungary and Poland and Serbia, although the later is even more complicated). From what I know and have read, there is no doubt in my mind that Putin was wrong to order the troops in. But it is also surely a fault of diplomacy that we have this situation. Is Obama at fault by not taking a stronger stance? Did the Trump era send messages to the Russians that he was totally consumed in home affairs? Maybe Syria was a catalyst? The west was aware of its mistakes in Iraq and Libya, where we really screwed the situation, Algeria where we largely left it to the French and Mali and Chad and Niger likewise. Did we allow Russia to fund Assam whilst we just supported Turkey who were more occupied with crushing the newly confident unofficial Kurdish state. The Kurds were perhaps the most effective military group against ISIS – but seem to have been sold out by all – again.

Either way it would seems that Presidents Biden and Xi need to stop posturing and start negotiating before both feed the industrial/military complexes in each country. Where does the UK fit bin all this – basically it does not! We are part of NATO (but contribute less than 10% of USA, and fewer troops than Turkey).

War is always brutal but this one seems to be affecting the general population on one side and large numbers of conscripts (and criminals released from prison for national service) on the other.

Turkey – once it stops shaking! – would seem to be a key player in the future due to its key geopolitical situation straddling 2 continents. A large area and a largish population (87 million – and will probably level off later this century at 100million), I think mainly muslim, but with sizeable other religions. Not quite part of the European economy and the likes of Farage, Johnson and their EU colleagues will ensure that never happens.

Which makes me wonder – the EU has accepted countries from many different situations, and seems to have done rather well at preventing violence and promoting a type of democracy. Spain and Portugal are countries that are largely peaceful, Greece another that many EU haters will point out has actually prospered recently (after a huge dip, and an acrinomyious fallout).

Rest of the world – Taiwan – I think the domestic situation in China will have to deteriorate seriously for the to contemplate an invasion. They know that the USAwill provide weapons, and probably Japan. They have always said they want to reclaim it – there is no logic to do it now, unless they think the USA is too occupied with Ukraine. But surely they have seen the way the Ukraine has resisted the Russians., It seems unlikely that the population of Taiwan would support a Chinese invasion. So why do the right wing keep raising this prospect.

Is the American establishment using a possible stray weather balloon which may have been collecting legitamate data, or even been spying – they all do it so not a big deal?, to suggest that Chinese technolgy (that competes with American technology) is spying. We have had newspaper stories saying that UK Police Software is vulnerable! What to? Revealing extreme misogynie and racism?

Are our techno genious’s not able to create firewalls, etc. I personally believe they could.

So the ERG will rally support against any concessions to the EU made by Sunak. Johnson is making a start to a bid to become PM again. 100 MP’s make back these two causes. There is no mention of how to solve the problem and make relationships with Europe better for industry and the people of the UK. Sunak should make a start by kicking people out of the Party. Starmer may have a similar problem on the left.

The tail that wags the dog! 35 MP’s are active supporters and another 29 have been members in the past. That enough to overturn the Conservative majority, thus this small but tight group yields power beyond its numbers. The DUP will be canvassing them for their support against any deal with the EU. Their visceral hatred of all things EU is ludicrous.

Basically about 60 MP’s have the ability to veto anything the government puts forward that they do not like. Does Sunak have the balls to take the whip away from the 35? Would they vote against the government? Many are likely to lose their seats anyway, as things stand, so may be willing to be bloody minded.

Sunak has a very difficult few months – maybe less – before he loses his job. At the latest this will be the next GE. Will he last that long? Will Johnson try to come back (he is buying a £4million plus mansion in Brightwell-cum-Sotwell in Oxfordshire (there are surely a plethora of jokes here! – especially as it has a moat). Oh what has happened to hard work ensuring wealth in this country when a moderately funny and debatably honest hack has this money to chuck around).

Groups like the ERG should not be funded by public money on the left or right or centre. Politicians should listen to constituents – Johnson, please note.

Centrica profits trebled to £3 billion, yet asked for, and got warrants to invade peoples houses and instal the expensive pre-payment meters. That most of the profit, like, BP, Shell, Exxon and the rest of the fossil fuel companies came from exploration and supply on the international market is irrelevant on moral terms. However we live in an age which lacks morality and environmental responsibility. Profits rule. Companies push their share prices higher by buying back shares and then pay themselves a whacking bonus’. Dividends go to shareholders with money to spare rather than those who cannot afford heating. Welcome to a cold hearted cold mean Britain.

World’s response is still abject. I would suggest a permanent team of experienced professionals, funded by the UN, to collate information about key resources (rescue teams, tents, food, etc.). They should be organise rescue and support efforts immediately. I am sure all these things exist but their co-ordination seems awry.

Obviously with Syria politics played a big part. Today IKEA announced that it was sending 5000 flat pack buildings – fantastic, but they should be signed up for donations like this in advance. “IKEA proudly sponsors UN Disaster Relief Fund” – big publicity splurge by companies and governments, and individuals. Shareholders should ask why has my company not supported this?

The bureaucracy should be small and actual efforts outsourced who know what is needed and how to do it. No Covid backhanders here!