Biden has visited. But China may supply Russia with military aid. China may need the money which Russia could pay? But it would be an escalation as it would almost certainly prompt the USA or NATO to provide planes and weapons. Whether China wants this escalation when its own economy is not booming and civil unrest seems to be growing. Putin is due to make a key speech today to rally support. India also seems to be supporting Russia. The diplomatic game continues. Is anyone trying to negotiate a ceasefire and talks? Compromise will be difficult for both sides, but will have to happen eventually.
CITIES
Before the Industrial Revolution mist people lived in rural communities and were largely self sufficient. Life expectancy was 40’ish. Things then changed. People moved from the countryside as mechanisation took place and factories needed labour. In Manchester by 1825 the life expectancy was 26! However medical science and hygiene soon won out and life expectancy is now about 78.
The driving force of needing labour in factories, shops, offices is receding fast. Home working, internet, online shopping all make the need for cities less relevant. In the countryside we have vast tracts occupied by the upper class with low population density. Farms that are managed on a macro style for profit may become less prevalent as the demand for quality and organic grows. Intensive farming of e.g. chickens is thought to be behind outbreaks of bird flu and other pathogens that have the ability to transform in to hazards for mammals.
We are seeing a growth in village sizes as people opt for a quieter, cleaner lifestyle. This however creates a problem as people seem to “want is all and want it now” lifestyle. This involves travelling far and wide and often for their visceral pleasure. How many people will spend their whole life without seeing a kingfisher or tern, the sound of a cuckoo, the scent of wild garlic in a bluebell wood?
Back to the topic. Our cities are declining in the services they provide. Food shopping is based on the outskirts. Clothing sales are often online and the city centre, once a hub of retail activity are often a dull series of tattoo parlours, betting shops, chain cafes, charity shops and discount stores serving those who live in the city and cannot afford the escape.
So the poor are stuck in the city, and its vibrancy and entertainment facilities will still attract the young adults. It will still have a function. Will there be a need for office blocks in the future – it seems unlikely. The fact that it is the young that will be attracted means that it will be at the forefront of innovation, as long as they are not starved of funds. Universities will thrive in the urban landscape of the future, with their ability to bring people of specific talent together.
The balance of inputs and outputs between cities and rural areas will change. The carbon footprint of cities will be reduced? Is this a wishful thought? Can we go back to the situation when every city was surrounded by market gardens and orchards? The globalised world took us over and offered cheap produce for a long time. Cities will always need to pay over the odds for utilities and disposal.
The hold that companies like Coca-cola and Google and Amazon have over us will change (Google shares lost $170billion last week, Tesla similar amounts.). Will the government change the basic rules to support local industries and start ups? The present one seems to be intent on wealth growth for the rich.
So my theory is that the growth of cities was predicated on the Industrial Revolution, and we will see counter urbanisation on a large scale. This will however have to be matched by demographic change (less people) and economic change with MNC’s losing their tax breaks.
WIND TURBINES
A deprived area of Bristol (Lawrence Weston) will soon have a huge wind turbine which should generate approx £100.000 a year to the local community. The community raised the cost and got some grants to help. The question is – why is this not happening everywhere? Energy company profits (generated solely in the UK) would pay for thousands of such schemes. The big companies and National Grid will not allow this to happen as it would stop their mega profits. It would not be practical everywhere, but community run schemes could cut our dependancy on fossil fuels rapidly, and cut energy bills too.
GLOBALISATION
I have written about this in textbooks (geog.123). But we seem to have reached a tipping point. Like bigger and larger factories and industries were supposed to lead to economies of scale; globalisation was supposed to create an ever cheaper source of goods for consumers. However like most things in life neither has occurred. Bigger and larger factories leads to discontent. Have we reached peak consumerism yet? I know my daughter and others are downscaling on plastic toys (sales reduced this year). Minimum wage jobs do not lead to job satisfaction. I would rather pay maybe twice as much for a product that has already reached peak efficiency (washing machines, dish washers, irons, cookers, etc. are unlikely to get some revolutionary makeover – so let me pay extra for one which will last 50 years? My best example is the Kitchen Aid (Oh so expensive) but oh such a wonderful friend in the kitchen!
HS2 – super fast
but not as far as Euston! What is the point of it if it not reaching the heart of London? There will no time saving overall, and at a cost of ££££???? The phrase about couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery comes to mind. Which poor suckers will be wheeled out to explain what a brilliant scheme it is?
GEOGRAPHY LESSON
I guess those at Eton, etc. are doing the history of the empire and how to exploit people.
A measure of equality os essential for social harmony and economic growth. When disparities occur both between social groups and between geographical regions the result is a collapse in society and the countries infrastructure. Let me concentrate on the geographical aspect. On a regional level there is huge disparity between regions of the UK – a report today
REGIONAL AID
That there are areas of the country suffering deprivation is beyond doubt. That some are in Essex and Kent is also well documented. But for 2 rich counties one has to wonder why there was not more self-help?
However the piecemeal approach of governments over time has shown that this is not efficient. Cornwall received £millions from the EU but many of the small dispersed projects failed. Successes are the new road link and the expansion of Universities into the county. Studies have also shown that some deserving councils are too cash strapped to provide staff to create the grant application and staff its implementation. Of 151 local authorities only 8 have not had real term cuts even with the extra funds announced. Levelling up is a nonsense statement. Does the Education Minister talk about levelling up? The first objective should be to provide a minimum level of public services like community centres, swimming pools and libraries. Investment in education in poorer areas would yield dividends for years to come. So an AI centre in Blackpool is welcomed. Whether National Heritage sites should be receiving these funds (rather than from elsewhere) is debatable.
The north appears to be in desperate need of a functional public transport system. The devastation of Thatcherism will not be met by call centres and Amazon warehouses. Decentralisation of government and business away from London will do wonders for the North and Midlands – start with Parliament. Media City in Manchester appears to be a success. I am not sure what went wring with the mega-factory for batteries that has gone bust recently but am informed that the location is ideal, but management were not. London house prices are over inflated so decentralisation makes sense. Instead of Sleaze-Dogg moaning about working from home we should encourage it. Re-nationalise the railways and offer cheap one day a week season tickets for those who need to visit offices occasionally. This will probably hit High Streets and hospitality centres in cities, but so be it. Business rates need to be abolished and replaced by VAT or a separate sales tax so that shops and on-line pay the same costs.
COP27
Time has probably run out to prevent major changes in Earth’s ecosystems. The world’s temperatures are already 0.8C warmer than 40 years ago. CO2 emissions continue to rise steadily as does methane. Warmer temperatures also means more water vapour (another greenhouse gas). Rainforest destruction continues steadily. Ice melting in the Arctic results in lower albedo, thus more heat absorption in the oceans which in turns leads to higher sea levels (a process which takes a while to get going, then decades to reverse. Byebye London is not going to happen soon, but may become an inevitability. Whilst the rate of population growth is slowing, it is still growing. World poverty has decreased, but this results in greater consumption and more methane and CO2.
It is not all bad news however. Solar and wind power combined has almost matched coal in creating power. Projections could mean that renewables produce 6x that of coal in the next 30 years. Lithium Battery costs have fallen to 10% of costs 12 years ago.
It seems that we have made good progress in the UK on the easy bit – increasing wind and solar power. With government assistance this could probably double by 2030. More difficult will become the need to reduce transport journeys – electric cars must be made to last, but public transport will need to take people off the roads. Air travel could be by electric planes, but will again need to change to shorter flights. It is the rich who have the greatest proportional impact – private planes should be heavily taxed. Most of the publics holiday flights could be achieved with short hop (2/3 hours) to holiday destinations. People will have to accept that there is a difference between “I need to go to …” and “I would like to go to ..”. Maybe more people should stay at home as they gain little from, and give nothing to the cultures they visit.
Diets will need to change. As the world population gets richer and moves out of poverty, so meat and protein consumption soars. Personally I am happy to reduce my meat consumption radically, but cheese would be more difficult! But I will have a concerted effort soon. Eating more local food is a no brainer, but we should not forgo the benefits of International trade, just stop abusing it. Using poly tunnels to grow fruit and veg in the UK can be more harmful than transporting them from Spain, etc. But why we need apples from NZ and Australia (same for lamb) is beyond me! Economics gone mad. In fact any economic plan that does not factor in the true cost of the project to all aspects of the environment is a. joke.
STOP GROWTH
Wildlife numbers have fallen by 70% in the last 50 years and is falling at 1% per year. The worst decline is Latin America (down 98%), Africa (66%), Pacific (66%), North America (20%), Europe and Central America (18%). The report points out that the UK had diminished its wildlife well before the 1970’s, with it being one of the mist nature-depleted. countries in the world.
SOLAR FARMS
The Environment Minister has announced plans to curtail new solar farms on agricultural land. this has been condemned by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy who are faced with coping with the energy crisis; The right wing Institute of Economic Affairs think tank and the Green Alliance think tank.