Category: Geography

Latest population prediction from the Club of Rome is that the world population will peak at 8.8 billion and thenstart to fall rapidly. This is more positive than previous estimates, and certainly better than the 10 billion estimates that were projected a few years back. The environment and wildlife might recover, however the growing consumption of humans will continue to be a problem. As will our inability to face up to climate change.

The UK should be actively planning for the situation now unfolding in South Korea. The fertility rate there is now below 1 at 0.78 (replacement level is 2.1). Having less children and having them later (average is 33.5) allcontributes to an ageing population with huge implications for the economy, pensions, care system, and health services. Japan is also having to face a similar, if less rapid decline. Europe also has fertility rates below 2.1.

Before the Industrial Revolution mist people lived in rural communities and were largely self sufficient. Life expectancy was 40’ish. Things then changed. People moved from the countryside as mechanisation took place and factories needed labour. In Manchester by 1825 the life expectancy was 26! However medical science and hygiene soon won out and life expectancy is now about 78.

The driving force of needing labour in factories, shops, offices is receding fast. Home working, internet, online shopping all make the need for cities less relevant. In the countryside we have vast tracts occupied by the upper class with low population density. Farms that are managed on a macro style for profit may become less prevalent as the demand for quality and organic grows. Intensive farming of e.g. chickens is thought to be behind outbreaks of bird flu and other pathogens that have the ability to transform in to hazards for mammals.

We are seeing a growth in village sizes as people opt for a quieter, cleaner lifestyle. This however creates a problem as people seem to “want is all and want it now” lifestyle. This involves travelling far and wide and often for their visceral pleasure. How many people will spend their whole life without seeing a kingfisher or tern, the sound of a cuckoo, the scent of wild garlic in a bluebell wood?

Back to the topic. Our cities are declining in the services they provide. Food shopping is based on the outskirts. Clothing sales are often online and the city centre, once a hub of retail activity are often a dull series of tattoo parlours, betting shops, chain cafes, charity shops and discount stores serving those who live in the city and cannot afford the escape.

So the poor are stuck in the city, and its vibrancy and entertainment facilities will still attract the young adults. It will still have a function. Will there be a need for office blocks in the future – it seems unlikely. The fact that it is the young that will be attracted means that it will be at the forefront of innovation, as long as they are not starved of funds. Universities will thrive in the urban landscape of the future, with their ability to bring people of specific talent together.

The balance of inputs and outputs between cities and rural areas will change. The carbon footprint of cities will be reduced? Is this a wishful thought? Can we go back to the situation when every city was surrounded by market gardens and orchards? The globalised world took us over and offered cheap produce for a long time. Cities will always need to pay over the odds for utilities and disposal.

The hold that companies like Coca-cola and Google and Amazon have over us will change (Google shares lost $170billion last week, Tesla similar amounts.). Will the government change the basic rules to support local industries and start ups? The present one seems to be intent on wealth growth for the rich.

So my theory is that the growth of cities was predicated on the Industrial Revolution, and we will see counter urbanisation on a large scale. This will however have to be matched by demographic change (less people) and economic change with MNC’s losing their tax breaks.

I have written about this in textbooks (geog.123). But we seem to have reached a tipping point. Like bigger and larger factories and industries were supposed to lead to economies of scale; globalisation was supposed to create an ever cheaper source of goods for consumers. However like most things in life neither has occurred. Bigger and larger factories leads to discontent. Have we reached peak consumerism yet? I know my daughter and others are downscaling on plastic toys (sales reduced this year). Minimum wage jobs do not lead to job satisfaction. I would rather pay maybe twice as much for a product that has already reached peak efficiency (washing machines, dish washers, irons, cookers, etc. are unlikely to get some revolutionary makeover – so let me pay extra for one which will last 50 years? My best example is the Kitchen Aid (Oh so expensive) but oh such a wonderful friend in the kitchen!

but not as far as Euston! What is the point of it if it not reaching the heart of London? There will no time saving overall, and at a cost of ££££???? The phrase about couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery comes to mind. Which poor suckers will be wheeled out to explain what a brilliant scheme it is?

I guess those at Eton, etc. are doing the history of the empire and how to exploit people.

A measure of equality os essential for social harmony and economic growth. When disparities occur both between social groups and between geographical regions the result is a collapse in society and the countries infrastructure. Let me concentrate on the geographical aspect. On a regional level there is huge disparity between regions of the UK – a report today