The Guardian map which shows the seats with small circles gives a better picture as states like the Dakotas are not over inflated! Comments in the Guardian about Florida seem to be poor journalism when it states that although there were more democrat registered voters in 2020 there now appears to be a difference due to migration! (In 2 years?). I would think that the Hurricane and a very strong candidate in DeSantis may have been bigger factors?
Overall factors to consider that may have had an influence – abortion – gun control – inflation – Trump selected candidates imposed on local republicans. Given that Biden is not charismatic and the economy is stuttering the prediction of a Republican wave was almost seen as a no brainer. Abortion and gun control issues in cities are likely to be very different in city and rural areas. Interesting that states bordering Mexico are 3 out of 4 democrat so immigration does not seem to have been a major issue there, but maybe in Idaho, Wyoming, N and S Dakota and Nebraska? The Confederate belt/ Mississippi catchment area seems largely Republican apart from some of the cities. I really do not know enough about the demographics of the USA! I looked it up – only Washington DC and Hawaii have less than 50% white (which I think included hispanics on the list I saw. California was the most diverse.
Biden should be chuffed with the results being so much better than predicted (imagine a government in the UK that held every marginal seat that came up for bye-election!).
Details are also coming out about other sites on the ballot paper (an interesting concept?), Michigan and Vermont have enshrined the right to an abortion whilst California looks likely to do the same. Kentucky voters rejected a ballot proposal that would have denied any constitutional protections for abortion.
Are there parallels with the UK? Trump/Johnson are both like those fireworks on Bonfire night – smoking and might yet explode – do not touch. The urban/rural, young/old, university/not, white/other, divides seem to exist in similar ways. A m/f breakdown would be interesting as it is such a big issue over there, as would a religious breakdown.