Time has probably run out to prevent major changes in Earth’s ecosystems. The world’s temperatures are already 0.8C warmer than 40 years ago. CO2 emissions continue to rise steadily as does methane. Warmer temperatures also means more water vapour (another greenhouse gas). Rainforest destruction continues steadily. Ice melting in the Arctic results in lower albedo, thus more heat absorption in the oceans which in turns leads to higher sea levels (a process which takes a while to get going, then decades to reverse. Byebye London is not going to happen soon, but may become an inevitability. Whilst the rate of population growth is slowing, it is still growing. World poverty has decreased, but this results in greater consumption and more methane and CO2.
It is not all bad news however. Solar and wind power combined has almost matched coal in creating power. Projections could mean that renewables produce 6x that of coal in the next 30 years. Lithium Battery costs have fallen to 10% of costs 12 years ago.
It seems that we have made good progress in the UK on the easy bit – increasing wind and solar power. With government assistance this could probably double by 2030. More difficult will become the need to reduce transport journeys – electric cars must be made to last, but public transport will need to take people off the roads. Air travel could be by electric planes, but will again need to change to shorter flights. It is the rich who have the greatest proportional impact – private planes should be heavily taxed. Most of the publics holiday flights could be achieved with short hop (2/3 hours) to holiday destinations. People will have to accept that there is a difference between “I need to go to …” and “I would like to go to ..”. Maybe more people should stay at home as they gain little from, and give nothing to the cultures they visit.
Diets will need to change. As the world population gets richer and moves out of poverty, so meat and protein consumption soars. Personally I am happy to reduce my meat consumption radically, but cheese would be more difficult! But I will have a concerted effort soon. Eating more local food is a no brainer, but we should not forgo the benefits of International trade, just stop abusing it. Using poly tunnels to grow fruit and veg in the UK can be more harmful than transporting them from Spain, etc. But why we need apples from NZ and Australia (same for lamb) is beyond me! Economics gone mad. In fact any economic plan that does not factor in the true cost of the project to all aspects of the environment is a. joke.
