CABINET SHUFFLE

The type of shuffle that means walking very slowly and uncertainly. 3 new departments at a cost of hundreds of thousands of tax payer money (still none for the nurses!). The Department of Energy Security and Net Zero which is recreating the Department for Energy and Climate Change abolished by Cameron.

The only really interesting appointment was Hands as Chairman of the Tories – which will appeal to old school tories, but then 30p Lee as his deputy. This must be to appease the “Red wall” tories and the growing threat from the right (Reform Party). Presumably the focus groups have been sending panic notes to No.10. His proximity to the throne at Ni.10 may however be a tipping point for centrist voters. With Starmer having a firm foothold in the centre ground we could see a big loss for the Conservatives. They are virtually wiped out in Scotland, Wales looks increasingly Labour whilst the DUP seems to be losing ground to the centre whilst Sinn Fein is holding its voter base.

Geographically the next election could beg fascinating. Will leave voters who switched from labour in the north return to the fold, or will they continue to seek radical change with the Reform Party. Cornwall which voted leave with disastrous results looks to be solid tory unless the Lib-Dems find a voice, or the Greens grow out of their good grassroots activism. Will some of the “blue belt” reflect the younger demographics in University towns, e.g. Canterbury. London and the big cities should remain labour due to the same demographics.

With energy companies making record and obscene profits, and the government refusing to implement “Windfall Taxes”, it will be interesting to see how much energy bills fall in April. Wholesale gas is cheaper now than before the Ukraine War. Why not impose a “Windfall Tax” but give them 100% immunity for green initiatives – energy security and net zero met with no cost to the tax payer – win/win situation. Dividends would not be greatly affected so pension pots would remain healthy.

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