PESSIMISM

So tomorrow the lockdown is eased significantly. Even in places like Corby, Wakefield, Barnsley,Mansfield and Clackmananshire where cases are 3x national average and over 100 per 100000.

In the south-west the figures are much better with numbers below 15 per 100000. I would like to hear of a much more effective test and trace system. With numbers of 30 in the whole of North Somerset surely this would be possible, practical and with payments to ensure isolation, affordable.

The holiday season will bring challenges to the south-west. Litter being one of them. Social distancing will also be important to continue.

I was asked if I was 95% protected? Firstly that % is still not 100%. Secondly, it misses the point. The evidence seems to point that lockdown is the most effective aspect, aided massively by vaccines. Herd immunity (if it exists in this context), is unlikely to occur until a vaccine prevents rather than protects.

So is there a dilemma in me going to see my children and grandchildren? I basically should be ‘safe’ personally. I am unlikely to spread the virus as I am careful, and the infection rate here is low. So the odds are good all round. However there is a but. But the virus is still out there (and statistics show it still to be widespread); perhaps 50% of people are not getting tested if they have symptoms, and 50% may not have symptoms.

So am I likely to get or transmit the virus – No. If everyone in my position stopped being ultra cautious would the virus spread – Yes.

Then there are the variants which will continue to develop, but faster if there are more people with it. Then there is long-covid which I do not comprehend, but seems to affect a large number of people.

So basically I hope people will go out and visit pub gardens, etc. but must socially distance. the governments lateral test scheme seems to be more white smoke and unicorns.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

%d bloggers like this: