Category: Geography

I have just received my copies of the book. Very proud.

On July 4th in the USA more than 180 people died from gun related incidents as reported by CBS. The freedom to carry a gun. 200 people die every year in the UK from drink related driving incidents. The freedom not to wear a mask – deaths not calculated yet. The freedom to travel to and from India after restrictions were placed on Pakistan and Bangladesh, thus allowing the Johnson strain to spread, deaths still rising (TBC).

All reports indicate that in the UK, and probably worldwide, Covid has become the disease of the poor. Reasons for this can vary but the major one is the high level of overcrowded living conditions and Covid. This is then compounded by the mistrust of the Government in the BAME community and the willingness of the poor to believe the anti-tax misinformation.

These two factors seem to be working independently, thus the North East has high levels of poverty and over crowding and has been hard hit in each wave ion the virus. Inner city boroughs in London like Tower Hamlets and Alum Rock in Birmingham have higher instances of the virus and lower vaccination rates, and more underlying health problems. The government has recognised this and has put money into solving it. Maybe door to door vaccination would help? Cornwall, presumably through tourism has had a recent spike with the Delta variant, whilst other rural areas with low population densities like Devon and Dorset have remained relatively low.

An interesting article on the BBC shows that the pattern of child mortality has hardly changed over the last 150 years. Covid follows the same pattern.

Going back to Dr.Snow in 1854, we have a lot to learn from the epidemiology of diseases. I wonder if the A level students who studied epidemiology with me have appreciated their knowledge recently? The international spread of the disease is more difficult to map, due to unreliable recording in some areas, but all the outbreaks I have seen reported originated in Wuhan, but were then rapidly spread by super spreader events like a ski resort in Switzerland (may have been Italy), Cheltenham Races and then more recently the decision by Bozo to not put travel restrictions on India when it was blatantly obvious to all that it was imperative (restrictions on Pakistan and Bangladesh – but he needed to try and get a trade deal with India to justify the Brexit debacle).

I had hoped to be able to stop posting about this, but … . The Delta Variant is becoming dominant world wide and is 60% more transmissible, and twice as likely to put people in hospital. The 4 main vaccines in the UK are said to be between 92 and 96% effective at preventing hospitalisations. But cases are rising in the UK despite it being a world leader in vaccination. The Delta Variant has raised the bar and it is now thought that 85% vaccination is required for herd immunity to have an impact.

So we have to live with it for foreseeable future? I think the results from analysis of crowds at football matches show a worrying trend. The population of the UK is showing excellent attitudes to vaccination (albeit for selfish reasons of wanting to travel abroad!). But if the 20-40 year olds get vaccinated we would hope to see a fall in numbers. Presumably the government gets to see results before the general public, and therefore the trends will be known in about a week by them. If numbers and hospitalisations are still going up there will have to be some difficult decisions made. Jobs, the economy and mental states will all need considering. In a couple of weeks we will have an opportunity to use the school holiday in England and Wales to possibly vaccinate children. Certainly secondary school age – they are the ones who travel and socialise most? Primary School pupils are more likely to be in a local bubble and the vaccine is unlikely to have been tested for this age group yet. So lots of difficult questions for Sajid Javid to ponder. Hopefully he is brighter than door Matt!

I also guess that having the infection, even if not needing hospitalisation will need a degree of isolation, and time off work/school etc. I think there may have been some government recommendations around isolation in schools – do whole year groups get sent home? What does the data say? Tell the anti-lockdown MP’s to shut up – can we please follow the science. I know some hard decisions will have to be made eventually, but hopefully the costs will be minimal.

Countries like Australia and NZ are also worried. Their isolationist programmes have worked so far, but their immunisation programmes are way behind most other developed countries. So I would advise them to get jabbing! And the same is true for other countries – if we wish to continue to exist in this connected world, we need to ensure all countries are jabbing!

Having provided minerals for centuries (especially copper and tin), Cornwall now is set to produce new wealth from the rocks. Lithium mining is being researched actively and today it was announced that trials for geothermal energy were progressing well! Hopefully both could attract further jobs to the area which is desperately in need of economic stimulus.