Category: Geography

Interesting stats from the ONS. Live births was down 3.1% to 605479 in Eng & Wales in 2022. Also half of all women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday. The fertility rate is about 1.7 (Italy 1.2 and SKorea 0.7). Worldwide only sub-Saharan Africa has a rapidly expanding population.

The population of the UK is rising through migration and given that most migrnts are under 35 one would expect expect that to have an impact on the fertility rate and births. Maybe it does? and the rate for those born here is similar to Italy?

There are many implications. Primary school places will be reduced (by as much as 13%) resulting in redundancies. The working age proportion of the population is set to fall. The population over 65 is set to rise both in numbers and in percentage.

This is happeneing now – and yet there is no discussion. We know tories do not give a shit – they will have pensions and be ok. But the implications for society are immense and growing. Pressures on NHS and the care sector. Need for unskilled workers, demand for higher skilled workers – or will AI have an impact on these and result in a dumbing down?

Will workers be paid more and work less? If so productivity will need to be improved (another dumbing down?). Will housing need to take these stats into account? Perhaps smaller housing with communial gardens? Older people taking on childcare to free people up for older aged care?

Age distribution will possibly become a bigger factor? Inner cities becoming the home of young adults whilst families populate the suburbs and villages. So where will old people go? Being well into that category I would like to continue to live where I am. However it is not perfect with the doctor in the next village, limited shopping and a group of christians dominating both church and village hall and subsequent groups! The majority of the under 65’s work away and shop and play away! I am sure some have never set foot in the village shop.

Education will at last need to change – traditional skills are superflous in a future scenario. Thinking skills are likely to become more important and maybe schools need to reduce the traditional school day hours and add super activites for at least 4 hours with different staff? A division between academic and artistic/fitness/fun?

Migration – at present it will need to continue until society can be restructured to take into account the changes happening. Asylum will increasingly be needed for climatic and environmental disasters (when will the superpowers wake up to the need for them to accept their responsibility?). Sub-Saharan Africa has been left to France and Russia for too long (with an input from USA). China has invested millions in infrastructure and raw material extraction. Surely it could become the power generator for Europe (a plan proposed many times! But the political turmoil caused by the underinvestment in the area has prevented large scale projects.

I have not mentioned culture – is this the elephant in the room? Are we all frightened of the basic culture we grew up with being modified or changed? I guess that in some areas the changes have been too fast. Wearing the burkah is maybe a symptom of this – after all what could be more inocuous than wearing a face covering? But it comes back to need to conform – children following the same fashions, joining in with activities that we know are wrong? More multi-cultural activities are needed in communities – who does not enjoy a taste of something different!

Incompetence or calculation? In March 2020 the government pledged a £950 rapid charging fund to enable the transition to electric cars. As of today the amount spent is zero! Motorway service stations are waiting years for connection. Moto has asked just for the provision of the power, not a subsidy. Yet another hit for our climate change commitments.

On climate change – Storm Ciaran is on its way. A Greenpeace report has revealed that a huge number of flood prevention schemes are in poor repair (4204 in poor or very poor condition)… The North has had extensive flooding in some areas, now it is the turn of the South west. Checking the tide it seems that we are just past the spring tide maximum but still expect a tide over 11m. With high wind speeds and low pressure this could cause problems along the Somerset Coast. When will Sunak and Co realise that climate change is detrimental to the British Isles?

So Sunak is making a play for votes by promising 1 million new homes over the next Parliament (to be built along side the 40 new hospitals?). This seems like a knee jerk reaction to rising rents and mortgages.

I guess most are needed in the South-East which already has a crisis of road traffic, and pressure on public services. There seems to be little demographic analysis of needs – a while back a Housing Minister stated that all new homes should have gardens. I would suggest that different age groups have different needs, but the house builders know which properties make the biggest profits. The government sets targets for Local Authorities. I would suggest that there is a classification scheme based on bedroom size/ terraces/flats/ semi’s, detached – luxury versions available? In a rural area it would mke more sense for the more expensive housing, whilst city centre developments could be more attuned to the needs of the young/single.

Rural areas often have poor bus services,and few facilities and are thus unsuitable for many. Consideration of facilities such as schools and health centres needs proper consideration along with water supply and sewage disposal/treatment.

OK I am privileged and live in a village. 200 new houses have been built recently and no new facities apart from a small swing park. I believe all use cars to get shopping from supermarkets 12km away, and to get to entertainment. The health cetre is in the next village. The well run and well stocked village shop is doing ok. Those who read this blog will know I am a bit of an anti-snob. However it would have made sense to me if the new housing estate had been replaced with maybe 10 4/5 bed quality houses surrounding a new village green (the village does not have one) and a pond (the site was sodden at times anyway). Rather than large gardens on some properties would it make sense for a small area and the option of an allotment? Allotment areas would do much to counter the pollution in cities and towns.

Ephasis needs to be put, not on the houses, but the communities they could create. has any estate been built in last 20 years with a youth centre? I accept that Cubs, brownies, scouts and guides can be a little too middle class (cubs was for me back in the 60’s with its militaristic use of badges/medals and flags). but society and the environment need the youth of today.

World temperatures 0.66C warmer than the 1991-2020 average. Time for some action across the world – won’t happen as corporations like BP, Total, Shell, Exxon, Saudi Aramco, Sinopec, Chevron, Petro China, Conoco, Cnina National Petroleum rule the roost.

If this was a war situation (which I believe it to be!) all governments would sort the problem in weeks! Demand could be reduced drastically with speed limits (how I would love to see the Express and Mail headlines!), and insulation, alternative production by wind turbines and solar could be implemented quickly. Water power from old mills could help localise the supply. Yes this would cause major upheavals in the stock market – but it would survive.

Priority needs to be given to wildlife in any building scheme. Personally I thought the building of 200 new homes in my village was OK, although the traffic created by the lack of workplaces is regrettable. With little recreation and social facilities the countryside is not an optimum place for new housing.