Category: Geography

Thoughts on the action by Just Stop Oil. Actual I have a few thoughts so here goes!

Firstly and most importantly it is very sad that it has come to this. I completely understand the frustration that many people feel about the lack of coverage given to climate change in this election – For those who care deeply about this issue I guess they had little choice.

Secondly – the choice – Stonehenge has been around for a while! It has weathered the toxic fumes of the industrial world and the protesters ensured that their paint was not toxic. However some papers and commentators are suddenly experts on lichen – Perhaps the Daily Mail will start a campaign to save our lichen (Unlichenly! – sorry, but it had to be done!).

The Daily Mail and Express have led with this – presuably they think that as most of their readers will either be dead or are so ignorant that any future climate change is irrelevant – but calls for them to be locked up when there is no space in our prisons is plain ridiculous.

Most sensible comment was from Dale Vance who basic told the PM to find more important issues that some non-toxic paint (that has already been removed). Child poverty would be a good place to start he suggested!

Lastly it give the MSP some respite from the bad news – Interesting tactic from the Telegraph

Does this mean that they will offset their £244.6m loss last year by backing the likely winners? Or is it scaremongering – Project Fear in technicolour? WTF are the blue areas – areas with below average IQ and above average gross stupidity?

So whilst the RWP have been able to avoid the carnage that is the Conservative Party by concentrating on royalty, the troops are on manoeuvres! All the right wing fanatics are voicing raising their profiles – Patel, Braverman, Badenock, Mordaunt and Shapps all seem to fancy their chances -IF they keep their seats! I am sure Truss also fancies her chances!

However there is no one from the centre making any noise? Is this due to lack of funding and support from Tufton Street? Whether you agree or not, and I am not overseen!, Starmer took on the left, and Momentum, to regain the centre ground – Sunak and the wets seem to be giving in to the fascists? My analysis of the normal status quo – would be that the moderate Labour Party and a competent Conservative Party would have about 30% each, Reform would be able to whip up 10-15% with huge media coverage and by creating a febril environment on migration; LibDems will perhaps never recover from the coalition and university fees and Nick Cleggs disasterous leadership!; The greens will hover around 5% with zero press support and will hope to build on strong local candidates; The left wing of the Labour Party will be a hidden element for now.

Whilst the rabid Farage will be supported by his cronies in the media we wait to see what support he gets at the polls. Reform did not do well in the local elections – it is very much a a pressure group rather than a political party for all the bollocks stated by Farage. 18% in the polls is not huge – enough to cause considerable damage to mainly the Tories but also Labour, but the Lib.Dems and Greens should come through unscathed. This could produce some interesting geographical outcomes?

This is where I get really interested! Will the Greens take Bristol Central and hold on to Brighton? They may even take Norwich? Then the Lib.Dems for whom (Ed Davey has done a brilliant job!) could clean up in some of the seats in the south and south-west? Will university towns produce a strong Labour vote and overcome the apathy of the young? Will Reform sweep Lincolshire and the coastal margins on the East?

Then the area I have no idea on – the North. Will Labour regain the seats lost to the charlatan Johnson in the ‘Red Wall’? Will there be a disillusionment vote for Reform based on perceptions (correct) that Westminster does not give a shit about the poorer regions (recent Tory handouts are derisory and probably subsumed by feasibility studies by London companies! So it will be interesting to see how Sunderland votes! Will local government results be replicated?

Then – I apologise for not refering to the other nations in the UK – I am based in Somerest and receive the trash media available here! But Scotland and Wales have both had a long term party in power which, it could be argued is not good so one at a time.

Scotland – The SNP have held power for a long time and virtually wiped Labour last time out – the Tories had 1 or 2 seats, maybe? The SNP are in a bit of disarray with first Sturgeon and then Yousaf resigning in difficult circumstance – this should lead to their anhilation at the polls but Ian Blackford and then Stephen Flynn have done a brilliant job at PMQ’s. Scottish Nationalism is also here to stay! So I suspect that the SNP will do OK- although they will lose seats to Labour. The Tories could actually be obliterated even in the Borderlands as their 7 seats look vulnerable to the usual selfich move of Douglas Ross to stand for Westminster – schmuck! LibDems seem to do well in the outlying regions but have not found a real home in Scotland other than the Highlands and Islands (over 700!)

Wales – agin we have a Parliament which has been dominated by Labour – and despite weekly aspertions by the Tory grandees – it has withstood and been quite radical at times! There does not seem to be the same desire for independance as in Scotland perhaps due to huge migration from England way back! So will Plaid Cymru make any inroads? Doubtful due to their lack of radicalism? Lib.Dems could do OK in rural areas as will the greens, but not well enough! Will Reform be a winner in the valleys?

Northern Ireland – I am hesitatnat here as Andy is bit of an expert and local! So it has been totally ignored by the media – and therefore seen to be irrelevant! Personally I think there could be some surprising outcomes ? Will Sinn Fein get more seats, that they will not occupy! Will the Conservatives and their compatriots the DUP lose seats? NI has been a victim of Brexit more than the rest of us! – what will their voters say? The London media seems to not care? They might regret this oversight?

Braverman is trying to drum up support abroad for her anti-migration and asylum views. The definition grants the right for at least 780 million people worldwide to move to another country, according to the Margaret Thatcher-founded think tank, the Centre for Policy Studies.

This figure is based on the total number of people who might have a “well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” worldwide – including everyone in Afghanistan other than the Taliban or the male population of Eritrea, where conscription into the armed forces has pushed thousands into exile.

According to the UN the total number of refugees worldwide is much lower, with 35 million people registered as refugees in 2022.

So she is opening an attack on gay, minority groups worldwide!The obvious solution would be to increase foreign aid back up to 0.7%. I do not know who makes up the statistics for the CPS but would wonder how many are climate disaster refugees and what the projections are for the potential increase in these numbers. A sensible government would be planing to be as proactive as possible.

Being an anti-growth person myself, I too am concerned about the growth in the UK population. However Braverman seems driven by blatent racism, or is it a form of sadism?

The 780 million figure is similar to extortionate statistics quoted during the Brexit debacle. The internet is awash with them – my son told me that the UK would get 150mph winds tomorrow after reading it in the internet. (75mph in exposed places is the likely maximum)).

This site raises lots of geographical questions

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Firstly Scotland where the SNP look set to lose some seats back to Labour. No real surprises there as the SNP have been going through a bit of turmoil recently and have the problem of being in power for so long. Whilst large areas of Scotland were previously Labour, the growth in the demand for nationalism will not be sated with the feeling that Labour is Westminster.2! Labour will need strong energy policies to win back seats.

The north of England. Sunak seems to think that a right wing policy will sway the “red wall seats”. I am not convinced that racism and nationalism will triumph over the economy and environment! Then the heartland of the tories – Middle England. For sure the Lib-dems have made inroads in some safe tory seats. Whether this will be replicated in a general election will be interesting. Wales will presumably follow the normal pattern with PC in the north and Labour in the south. I cannot see many swinging to the tories here. And then the South West – maybe the most interesting? Large numbers of old duffers, but there has been demographic movement since the last election. More young people moving in. I am not sure how Brexit voters have reacted to terrace since? It has never been a unionised area so the independence could benefit the Lib Dems or even the greens who might do well in Bristol and Totnes? Will London continue to be pro-labour with Khan promoting the ELTZ’s? Personally I hope the motor heads are sent home to choke on their fumes.

Despite wishes for tactical voting it looks likely that this will have limited impact? TBH Starmer is promoting tactical voting as he is hardly promoting the socialism many believe Labour should be promoting.