Category: Geography

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CLIMATE CRISIS

So BP and Shell are scaling back on green energy and increasing oil production – fucking stupid and greedy. Rivers world wide are drying up! Amazon, Ganges, Bramaputra and Mekong have all suffered lower than normal levels this year. As glaciers melt there will be a reduced flow from some of the rivers that are relied on by large numbers of humanity (rivers eminating from the Himalayas primarily, and then the Rockies and Andes).

A ski resort in France shuts as it cannot provide the snow, 3 die in Thai floods. Several hundred have already died in the USA. Will it be the insurance industry that leads us into action? When premiums go high that amybe when the government takes notice.

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HURRICANES

3 Hurricanes are around at the same time which is bit of a record! Kirk is already well north and may bring non-hurricane winds to Europe (but is causing high surf and rip currents to Bermuda and beyond), Leslie is also faffing about in mid-Atlantic but may bring a storm surge to the Eastern seaboard of North America. Of most interest is Hurricane Milton which was an ‘enhanced’ tropical storm until it picked up energy from the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea (which is warmer than normal for the time of year (climate change). Milton will likely hit a similar area to Helene and will certainly add inches (USA!) to the rainfall already received. Latest predictions are that it will be south of the Florida pan handle, but will reach Category 2 or even 3 with a storm surge likely.

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INTERNATIONAL EMBARRASSMENT

So a UN report criticises the UK for its racism in government, Parliament and the media.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/23/un-urges-uk-to-tackle-rise-in-racist-hate-speech-by-politicans-and-public-figures

It does not name names, but we can be clear that most, if not all the Tory candidates to suceed Sunak will be on the list along with Reform and most of the published and broadcast media, the Met Police and other public bodies. Labour should also be concerned – Starmers initial speech on Gaza was horrendous!

However racism has become so mainstream that even a family member can say “I am not racist but ….” with no sense of irony! I can give explanations for this but not excuses. For my parents generation (and their influence over my generations thinking) the war was a good reason for xenophobia. This was amplified by the media, controlled by the upper classes and rich who really only supported the war effort once it became apparant that Hitler would use (please do not fact check this – I can be as guilty as any of converting a random thought into fact! Was I thinking of Remains of the Day”). TV had the Black and White Minstral Show (although even in my pre-teens this was embarrassing) and then “some mothers do have them” which was funny, very racist and I (sounding like Donald Trump) sided with the long haired scoucer trade unionist).

So my generation were indoctrinated at every opportunity – no lessons about the slave trade for me, just hearing about our racist heroes of the past like ‘Clive of India’, Captain Cook, Drake and Churchill. No mention of Winston sending the troops in against strikers or his role in the Indian Famine. Signs were up in B&B “No blacks, Irish or queers”. A very intolerant society. But it also gave birth to the Sixties and rebellion against the conformity of austerity. Hippies opened their horizons whilst the Mods and Rockers craved for the lost norms of the past. Then along came the skinheads – a tribe for the failures and those failed by society. Being and acting like a moron became the norm for a sector of society. 30p Anderson and Farage and the others realise this is a fan ase neglected by the main parties. In the days before Thatcher when we had an industrial base these guys (and they are mainly men) had jobs in factories and identified with their trade union. As the Trade Unions lost membership so the football Ultras and yobo’s proliferated. As hooliganism was cut back on, then these people had no ideological home. Car theft also lost its shine as it became more difficult.

But my relative is not poor – home owning and well off. Former mod with a police record to prove it. He and I suspect his family have become radicalised by the media of the Mail, Sun, GB News etc. Their fear, bigotism and paranoia defies logical explanation. Their paucity of ideas and ideology craves a symbol to follow (Flag, badge, club) basically anything to hide the fact that they are pathetic morons who can only articulate their views via the sound bytes of the rich and wealthy.

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FAKE NEWS AND THE FARAGE RIOTS

Much has been reported about the fake news that contributed to the riots. The BBC has investigated and can find no evidence that it was spread by Russia so that itself is fake news. I suspect that the rioters were just waiting for them to happen so they would have found an excuse anyway. I am sure they were not expecting to be arrested en masse and banged up for substantial periods of time!

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WE HAVE A PROBLEM

and Houston cannot help! Supertanskii summed it up with Stochastic terrorism.

Farage and co are MP’s and are there to serve all the people, not just a few racist thugs. I will come clean here as I am guilty of similar double standards! I whole heartedly condemn Just Stop Oil disrupting traffic and everyday events ….. but support their concerns. However Farage did not even go that far – before the BUT came in that basically gave his support for the riots.

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CLIMATE

It makes no sense that this issue is still ignored. Hurricane Bryl was the first of the year, and earliest ever, and brought huge destructive energy acrossbthe Caribbean. It is likely to be the first of many this year – Will Trump do a Canute impression on the beach in Florida (without the wisdom of Canute!)? Already the insurance companies are recording high claims – it will get worse and the costs will be passed on to us all (Lloyds of London is still a key insurer internationally).

Elsewhere Japan is recording very high temperatures and Delhi has had record highs above 50C. Crops across Europe are being hit (I tried to buy cherries from Spain but the crop failed!). Farmers in the UK are recording high losses and without sunny weather soon the cereal crop will suffer. On a positive I have lots of mulberries for the first time and the apple tree is loaded. Tomatoes in greenhouse are slow – just 250g so far. But chillies are coming on!

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HURRICANE

Beryl is the earliest Category 5. They are usually mid-season (August-September). This one has trashed parts of Venezuela, Grenada and St.Vincent and the Grenadines. It is now heading close to Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. My good friend and ex-student is living there and has said he will send photo’s which I will post here.

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DEMOGRAPHY

Interesting stats from the ONS. Live births was down 3.1% to 605479 in Eng & Wales in 2022. Also half of all women born in 1990 were childless by their 30th birthday. The fertility rate is about 1.7 (Italy 1.2 and SKorea 0.7). Worldwide only sub-Saharan Africa has a rapidly expanding population.

The population of the UK is rising through migration and given that most migrnts are under 35 one would expect expect that to have an impact on the fertility rate and births. Maybe it does? and the rate for those born here is similar to Italy?

There are many implications. Primary school places will be reduced (by as much as 13%) resulting in redundancies. The working age proportion of the population is set to fall. The population over 65 is set to rise both in numbers and in percentage.

This is happeneing now – and yet there is no discussion. We know tories do not give a shit – they will have pensions and be ok. But the implications for society are immense and growing. Pressures on NHS and the care sector. Need for unskilled workers, demand for higher skilled workers – or will AI have an impact on these and result in a dumbing down?

Will workers be paid more and work less? If so productivity will need to be improved (another dumbing down?). Will housing need to take these stats into account? Perhaps smaller housing with communial gardens? Older people taking on childcare to free people up for older aged care?

Age distribution will possibly become a bigger factor? Inner cities becoming the home of young adults whilst families populate the suburbs and villages. So where will old people go? Being well into that category I would like to continue to live where I am. However it is not perfect with the doctor in the next village, limited shopping and a group of christians dominating both church and village hall and subsequent groups! The majority of the under 65’s work away and shop and play away! I am sure some have never set foot in the village shop.

Education will at last need to change – traditional skills are superflous in a future scenario. Thinking skills are likely to become more important and maybe schools need to reduce the traditional school day hours and add super activites for at least 4 hours with different staff? A division between academic and artistic/fitness/fun?

Migration – at present it will need to continue until society can be restructured to take into account the changes happening. Asylum will increasingly be needed for climatic and environmental disasters (when will the superpowers wake up to the need for them to accept their responsibility?). Sub-Saharan Africa has been left to France and Russia for too long (with an input from USA). China has invested millions in infrastructure and raw material extraction. Surely it could become the power generator for Europe (a plan proposed many times! But the political turmoil caused by the underinvestment in the area has prevented large scale projects.

I have not mentioned culture – is this the elephant in the room? Are we all frightened of the basic culture we grew up with being modified or changed? I guess that in some areas the changes have been too fast. Wearing the burkah is maybe a symptom of this – after all what could be more inocuous than wearing a face covering? But it comes back to need to conform – children following the same fashions, joining in with activities that we know are wrong? More multi-cultural activities are needed in communities – who does not enjoy a taste of something different!

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STONEHENGE

Thoughts on the action by Just Stop Oil. Actual I have a few thoughts so here goes!

Firstly and most importantly it is very sad that it has come to this. I completely understand the frustration that many people feel about the lack of coverage given to climate change in this election – For those who care deeply about this issue I guess they had little choice.

Secondly – the choice – Stonehenge has been around for a while! It has weathered the toxic fumes of the industrial world and the protesters ensured that their paint was not toxic. However some papers and commentators are suddenly experts on lichen – Perhaps the Daily Mail will start a campaign to save our lichen (Unlichenly! – sorry, but it had to be done!).

The Daily Mail and Express have led with this – presuably they think that as most of their readers will either be dead or are so ignorant that any future climate change is irrelevant – but calls for them to be locked up when there is no space in our prisons is plain ridiculous.

Most sensible comment was from Dale Vance who basic told the PM to find more important issues that some non-toxic paint (that has already been removed). Child poverty would be a good place to start he suggested!

Lastly it give the MSP some respite from the bad news – Interesting tactic from the Telegraph

Sunak to become first prime minister in history to lose seat, major poll finds

Does this mean that they will offset their £244.6m loss last year by backing the likely winners? Or is it scaremongering – Project Fear in technicolour? WTF are the blue areas – areas with below average IQ and above average gross stupidity?

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IN FIGHTING!

So whilst the RWP have been able to avoid the carnage that is the Conservative Party by concentrating on royalty, the troops are on manoeuvres! All the right wing fanatics are voicing raising their profiles – Patel, Braverman, Badenock, Mordaunt and Shapps all seem to fancy their chances -IF they keep their seats! I am sure Truss also fancies her chances!

However there is no one from the centre making any noise? Is this due to lack of funding and support from Tufton Street? Whether you agree or not, and I am not overseen!, Starmer took on the left, and Momentum, to regain the centre ground – Sunak and the wets seem to be giving in to the fascists? My analysis of the normal status quo – would be that the moderate Labour Party and a competent Conservative Party would have about 30% each, Reform would be able to whip up 10-15% with huge media coverage and by creating a febril environment on migration; LibDems will perhaps never recover from the coalition and university fees and Nick Cleggs disasterous leadership!; The greens will hover around 5% with zero press support and will hope to build on strong local candidates; The left wing of the Labour Party will be a hidden element for now.

Whilst the rabid Farage will be supported by his cronies in the media we wait to see what support he gets at the polls. Reform did not do well in the local elections – it is very much a a pressure group rather than a political party for all the bollocks stated by Farage. 18% in the polls is not huge – enough to cause considerable damage to mainly the Tories but also Labour, but the Lib.Dems and Greens should come through unscathed. This could produce some interesting geographical outcomes?

This is where I get really interested! Will the Greens take Bristol Central and hold on to Brighton? They may even take Norwich? Then the Lib.Dems for whom (Ed Davey has done a brilliant job!) could clean up in some of the seats in the south and south-west? Will university towns produce a strong Labour vote and overcome the apathy of the young? Will Reform sweep Lincolshire and the coastal margins on the East?

Then the area I have no idea on – the North. Will Labour regain the seats lost to the charlatan Johnson in the ‘Red Wall’? Will there be a disillusionment vote for Reform based on perceptions (correct) that Westminster does not give a shit about the poorer regions (recent Tory handouts are derisory and probably subsumed by feasibility studies by London companies! So it will be interesting to see how Sunderland votes! Will local government results be replicated?

Then – I apologise for not refering to the other nations in the UK – I am based in Somerest and receive the trash media available here! But Scotland and Wales have both had a long term party in power which, it could be argued is not good so one at a time.

Scotland – The SNP have held power for a long time and virtually wiped Labour last time out – the Tories had 1 or 2 seats, maybe? The SNP are in a bit of disarray with first Sturgeon and then Yousaf resigning in difficult circumstance – this should lead to their anhilation at the polls but Ian Blackford and then Stephen Flynn have done a brilliant job at PMQ’s. Scottish Nationalism is also here to stay! So I suspect that the SNP will do OK- although they will lose seats to Labour. The Tories could actually be obliterated even in the Borderlands as their 7 seats look vulnerable to the usual selfich move of Douglas Ross to stand for Westminster – schmuck! LibDems seem to do well in the outlying regions but have not found a real home in Scotland other than the Highlands and Islands (over 700!)

Wales – agin we have a Parliament which has been dominated by Labour – and despite weekly aspertions by the Tory grandees – it has withstood and been quite radical at times! There does not seem to be the same desire for independance as in Scotland perhaps due to huge migration from England way back! So will Plaid Cymru make any inroads? Doubtful due to their lack of radicalism? Lib.Dems could do OK in rural areas as will the greens, but not well enough! Will Reform be a winner in the valleys?

Northern Ireland – I am hesitatnat here as Andy is bit of an expert and local! So it has been totally ignored by the media – and therefore seen to be irrelevant! Personally I think there could be some surprising outcomes ? Will Sinn Fein get more seats, that they will not occupy! Will the Conservatives and their compatriots the DUP lose seats? NI has been a victim of Brexit more than the rest of us! – what will their voters say? The London media seems to not care? They might regret this oversight?