Yes the schools are shut and pubs, but the latter we had got used to. Tier 2, 3 or 4 seems to make little difference. The rate round here also went up to 26 people having caught it, but this has dropped down to 23 in the last week. Still too high, but at about 308/100000, it I nothing like the numbers in Essex at 1500/100000.
It seems that the vaccine will help but not change things that much – people who have received it are told not to act as if they are immune as they might not be. basically we need to the number of people getting infected down to low single figures and even then be vigilant as it only takes one super carrier to start an outburst. Stories about better drugs to prevent death seem to be over stated if the number of deaths being reported are correct (or the recent surge is much worse than generally being reported).
I must admit I find the maths of this a bit confusing. The government has now vaccinated 2% of the population, a rough guess would say that 15% of people have probably had it (including symptomatic), so getting on for 20%, but the figures keep rising despite lockdown, and most people adhering to the rules. Although it seems that it is the 30-50 age group which is fuelling much of the increase. The maths just do not make a lot of sense to me. And I am not denying the pictures from hospitals or the reality of the situation.
If 20% are basically immune now, and another 30% are being hyper-careful, that must mean …. I am not sure what …. but possibly being spread by touch more than thought/advertised before? Home deliveries from workers who have no choice to furlough due to zero-hour contracts? How many of us isolate deliveries and wash hands thoroughly after opening them (or even the post).