So Trump is planing for a regime of increased tariffs on imports. He might think he is clever but most do not! A tarriff will rapidly develop between USA and China and probably the EU. LEDC’s will probably be stuffed too!
The USA can produce enough food and products to withstand isolation. However any tarriffs are bound to be reciprocal. Regarding products China would probably be a beneficiary of countries looking to trade with a trriff free partner. Economies also react relatively quickly when needs must – the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed that disruption of even products like oil can be coped with. So economically I believe it would be an act of massive self harm – like Brexit was for the UK.
Politically it could cause the checks and balances that sustain a relatively free world to crumble. If China gets a boost economically it may feel less constrained in its efforts to exert its presence in the Pacific region.. Trump has hinted at less support for NATO – which will possibly embolden an domestically less secure Putin to take further action in Europe (personally I doubt this, but never say never!). Americas support for Israel (along with Starmers) amazes me. The Jews have a huge influence that makes conspiracy theories vaguely relevant? The death of an American woman by the IDF may cause a glimmer of regret in America but will soon be forgotten.
I am also aware that the American prescence in other parts of the world is dominant to the maintainece of the status quo (for good or bad!). And whilst ambilivent on the issue – would Herbozlah and Hamas be restrained if US aircraft carriers were not in the vicinity. But also does American hegmony allow the destruction of settlements in the West Bank? Israels continued destruction and genocide in Gaza is setting the area up for a traumatic finale? Already Iran is a treat with a religious theocracy, Israel is surrounded by very rich Muslim states and that America may not always be its protector?
I am also sure that the main losers with Trumps Tarriffs would be LEDCs. He is just a very rich K. Starvation of poor people does not concern him. So I expect greater alliance between him and tec giants like Musk. However whilst social media is world wide via the web, the contacts of most are local. This means a competitor can be created and thrive in the face of opposition from twitter, Facebook, instagram, etc. TBH – if I post on twitter I am more than happy for my posts to be read in the UK and nowhere else! I would guess that most teenagers are hoping to reach others nearby. So the USA hegmony on social media may well crumble? TikTok has become a norm. But I suspect there is room for more local artisan products!