It must be for one of the following reasons. The restrictions were put in too late (likely); The restrictions don’t work (also likely); The restrictions are not enforced so meaningless (the cynic in me suggests this too is likely). These result in me asking what can be done? There is now plenty of data from both here and abroad to be able to analyse how the virus is spread. If with limited success the test and trace system must have thrown up some useful data.
As reports suggest that 80% of people with the virus do not display symptoms early enough to allow full use of isolation, there will need to be methods. Photo’s of mainly young adults in street parties after the 10pm curfew suggests that has failed. As the impact of the virus on them is less severe, or of no impact, maybe it is the 60+ age group which needs to have stricter restrictions. Fixed shopping hours, fixed daytime pub and restaurant hours. A travel ban for areas deemed to be out of control – most people have found that they can cope very nicely within their very local area – but limited to 3 week maximum.
And I come back to intelligent use of statistics. Exeters stunningly high figure maybe just due to the University and a targeted response would be appropriate, similarly with outbreaks centred around certain factories or industries (Leicester textiles, wrexham meat packaging). In these cases are restrictions are probably not needed.
In other areas early warning systems should come into play. I keep an eye on Chelmsford. numbers there have quadrupled in 10 days from 11-41/100000. I have no idea why this is but would have the following questions:- Which age groups are involved?; Which areas are involved?; What is the impact one hospital admissions?; What evidence is there for the reasons for the spread (t&t – social family gatherings, or pubs/restaurants, or schools/colleges, or sports clubs or whatever. Now would be the time to get answers and take appropriate limited action supported by limited furlough (limited to target area and by time 3 to 4 weeks).
Peoples livelihoods and mental welfare need to be considered and looked after. Therefore limited swift firm enforced action is the only way. By swift I mean instant, once certain trigger points are hit, measures are introduced immediately – none of this go and get pissed at the weekend because we are shutting the pub next Wednesday nonsense. The relevant statistics should be included in all local news outlets and on social media so it would not be a shock to anyone. Local councils should be the ones to make the decisions with some proviso for inadequacy and uselessness (like the government).
Finally with clarity, enforcement, decisiveness and leadership I believe many of the problems faced could be ameliorated. A dedicated web site for information for all areas should be relatively easy to produce – or just refer people to the BBC website (If the Tories have not destroyed it by then!).
Unfortunately our Prime Minister has only bluster, egotism, vanity, fantasism, racism and a lack of grasp of detail. And unfortunately he has surrounded himself with apologists for himself so there is no accountability.