Who knows what the impact will be? I don’t and most economists and business owners don’t.
If successful America will build a manufacturing base – images of fat Americans with sewing machines are proliferating on social media. Estimates of clothing price hikes are about 33%. Many electronic devices have parts from many countries (even jeans have components from up to 15 countries. It will take years to develop supply chains within the USA. Most manufacturing involves more than one country.
Questions with no answers yet – Will China and other Asian countries dump goods in Europe? How will poorer indebted countries cope? How will the EU and UK cope? Will some Americans be forced into poverty? Does America have the skill sets to take up manufacturing – it was 50 years ago for many industries. How long will states like CA, NY and Illinois accept Trumps dictatorship? The senate has 100 members, 2 from each state regardless of population. We saw Truss attempting to do trade deals with individual states – can they still do this? And if so, how will Trump react? Do trade wars lead to armed wars? Vietnam and Indonesia will probably align with China, Philippines with the USA? Tensions over Taiwan will increase. Chinese nationals are said to be fighting with Russia in Ukraine – are they official or mercenaries? How will the world react to the appropriation of Gaza into Israel (Trump like it – but right minded people do not)!