The Guardian has a good/bad night projection. I am surprised (a lot in this post!) that they have set the bar so high for Labour? Good night for Labour will be 1000 seats gained – bad if less than 500. Tories will be pleased to lose only 500 seats. LibDems gain 100 will be good, less than 50 poor. Greens will be happy with 100+. ReformUK will celebrate any win, anywhere. More details here
In the 2019 election the Conservatives lost 1330 seats and Labour lost 84. LDems + 704 and Greens +198. the rest of the maths is an increase in Independents!
I voted green (they were the only ones to post stuff through the door, but I would have voted for them anyway) but was surprised that there are only 9 green candidates in N.Somerset.
Last election N.Somerset results : Labour 6; Tory 13; LibDems 11; Greens 3; Independents 17. Looking at the results it is surprising that it is W-s-M and Worle that are the Tory stronghold rather than the rural areas. Banwell and Winscombe elected 1 Tory and 1 Green last time. More details here
Acroos the country it will probably be measured by the number of councils that change. The Conservatives have 93 councils and Labour 84 and Dem 18 at the moment. A big change here would be interesting?
Not reported in my paper (DUE TO THERE BEING NO ELECTIONS!) is the situation in Northern Ireland! Before I look up 2019 results I would suggest that any move to the centre would undermine the DUP? Sein Fein are likely to retain their base vote? Although perhaps te young will move to centre ground? Right I did not know that they used the single transferable vote in N.I. and am therefore surprised yet again to see that the councils are polarised between the DUP and Sein Fein with just one being SDP ( I think). On the basis of this research I would guess (def a guess) that any change to this polarisation would be the biggest news of the election results over the next day or so.