I have no sympathy for Iran – a state where religious fervour is more important than basic human rights. The basic question is whether the world would be safer if the country had nuclear weapons – and the answer must be a wholehearted NO. So was Israel justified in its overnight attack? The answer I have ais a maybe! I am no lover of Israel, but the targeted attack may be escalation, or may put back the nuclear weapons programme. However there is another angle; If Israel can carry out targeted attacks like this one, why is it bombing the fuck out of Gaza and killing so many innocents?
What is certain is a escalation of attacks on Israel by Iran. Where will China and India and Russia position themselves? Even America. trump has already said that the USA was not involved in the attack, apart, that is, from funding the country and supplying weapons and jets. I think I read that Iran had breached nuclear conditions laid down by the UN? Russia presumably has enough on its plate with Ukraine. China and India are broadly supportive of Iran as it irritates America? As a fundamentalist muslim states none of the countries will be over keen to get involved. That then leaves the wealthy Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Neither can be seen to be too vested in Israel as Islamic countries. The EU has an influential pro-Israel lobby but will be hesitant in offering diplomatic support. The same goes for UK,Canada, Norway and Australia whom all condemned Israels actions in Gaza recently.
So the situation is confused and as blurred as ever. Israel can expect more drone and missile attacks but their shield seems to be effective at stopping most (at present). However as Ukraine recently showed – innovation can overcome even a military superpower in attacks. For instance; Israel is dependent on the Sea of Galilee to feed the acquifers that provide water to farms and settlements in the south.
Hamas must be struggling to survive but Hezbollah has a wide range and seems well armed? A concerted attack from Lebanon would probably be repulsed by Israel, but renewal of hostilities from an unstable Syria in the Golan Heights might be difficult. I am envisaging a Battle of Hastings scenario where Israel tries to take Damascus, whilst Lebanon/Hezbollah fights a war of attrition in Labanon and the West Bank receives arms and rises up? Ridiculous – yes-but?!