Yesterday I stated that Israel may have had a reasonable reason for the strike on Iran. Inevitably Iran struck back and some missiles got through the shield and fatalities occurred. This maust have been factored in by the Israeli government. But again Israel;s response is disproportionate. The escalation by Israel is of concern – they are perhaps the only nuclear country that is likely to use nukes as an offence weapon rather than a last resort one. Even Putin has not used his huge arsenal in the Ukraine. Iran’s religious leaders will be strengthened and whilst Netanyahu may call for the Iranian people to rise up he is talking bullshit. The people of Gaza have not rebelled against Hamas despite the carnage and destruction wrought by Israel. Iran is a theocracy with indoctrination installed in children from an early age (was it true that Iran children were offered two more years at shool if they walked through minefields to clear them?).
Israel has used a huge amount of bombing raids, and ground forces against Hamas and has still not recovered all the hostages. the cost to Israel of the Gaza offensive is estimated to be $250 billion with total costs nearer $400 billion. Of this the USA has According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, the United States spent $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel from October 2023 to October 2024. In December 2023, the WSJ report stated that US arms shipments to Israel since the start of the war included 15,000 bombs and 57,000 155mm artillery shells. Trump maybe happy with this but will the American people? Mid terms are coming over the horizon – he has alienated most of the non-knuckle draggers – will he have aenough support after Nov.2026? Or will he pass laws disenfranchising vast swathes of the population?
Back to Iran – its land borders seem secure; Goergia and Turkmenistan to the north; Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east; Turkiye and Iraq to the west maybe its weakest link but nothing is straight forward in this region. Iraq appears to be a mess after meddling by the west and NATO, whilst Turkiye is proving its independence and ability as a mediator wherever possible whilst being a muslim country it is Shia rather than Sunni. So that leaves the south bordered by the Red Sea with Saudi Arabia being the largest neighbour along with the Arab metro states and Oman. So a land force is unlikely to gain much traction. Which leaves air attack and missiles – with probable vast civilian casualties. Has the holocaust done something to Jewish minds that trivilises death of innocents?
For a while it looked like soft diplomacy might make roads into the Shia theocracy, but this will embolden the bigots in Iran, as warmongering has emboldened and strengthened the `jewish bigots.
So today is pessimistic – Without external pressure neither Israel or Iran look likely to back down. And as a major funder of Israel and the worlds leading superpower (despite Trumps attempts to localise it) it is up to America to take a lead (Oh fuck Trump would be looking to build a resort in Tehran as part of the deal? So basically we are fucked – years of conflict and death with no outcome. Bollocks.