One trillion dollars, thousands of deaths and the Taliban are back in charge. Presumably backed by Islamists from the Arabian Peninsular, they may find it difficult to control the whole country with its history of tribal differences and war lords. they will also need to beware of supporting islamic groups in the Uyghur Region. Russia too will lament the withdrawal of American and British troops, with terrorism always just under the surface in the former soviet states in the south. American and Britain can hope that the Taliban will not support organisations like Al Quida in the future. Certainly the ‘west’ can be seen to have lost a lot of influence in the region.
Britain can stop hallucinating that it still has influence across the world. With Brexit we lost a lot of diplomatic influence (and during Bozo’s tenancy in the FCO), and now we have lost another chunk of military influence. If Britain was a private company the directors would surely be telling it to concentrate on core activities!
The USA – Trump basically started the withdrawal of the US as a world policeman. Biden had little choice bit to allow the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, although he will have been surprised at the speed of the collapse of their puppet government. Whether it will exert a greater influence in the Americas and Europe we wait to see. Will America also want to be more involved with the development of Africa – a potentially important area as a source of raw materials and a growing market place.
China will be watching carefully. It wants to develop its influence but is ready for any confrontations outside its immediate area of influence.
Russia still has problems with poverty at home. The huge geographic area of its lands make it difficult to develop – in tiny UK we have a huge disparity between different areas. Putin likes the macho image, but has little to back it up with.
The E.U. will take a while to adjust to the loss of the UK which was a major contributor to its budget and added expertise and economic power. It is however developing and seems to be keeping its head down diplomatically. With no great pretentious for power (although maybe France retains some illusions of grandeur) it can concentrate on its core area without distractions. North Africa may change this – another complete cockup was the removal of Gaddafi – now Islamic extremist groups are in the ascendance and the EU may have to respond militarily and economically. The traffic in refugees seems to be growing, so economic investment in Africa seems imperative, and suppression of terrorist activity may be difficult. Most of the Sahel seems to be in a state of ephemeral security – and in need of economic advancement and population control. This sounds ominous but a healthy population with sexual equality and opportunities for economic advancement results in steady population, a better social and ecological environment.
Japan – a country which was lauded in my youth for its growth – seems to have a mature response to the horrors of its part in WW2 and just be doing what it did in the C19th – look after itself. Restrictions on its military have meant more investment in other areas. Time for the UK to follow the same path?
It seems that armies are less important than the ability to distribute weapons?