ELECTION ANALYSIS BY ME

The basics are: a disaster for the Cons; good for Lab; very good for LDems and Greens.

But how does this equate to a General Election? And how will it affect the Government?

The GE is still presumably a year or more away. Projections suggest that Labour will not get a clear majority so Starmer has work to do. His attempts to appease the centre ground of the public do not seem to be working in the “blue” areas – Lib Dem and Greens may be able to consoldidate a local election triumph and gain seats here. Whilst there is some progress in the “Red wall” seats, it was not great, there is a great deal of fudge arouhnd Starmer (what exactly is his stance on Europe, on tuition fees, on migration, etc.). The time has come for Labour to set out their agenda (and LibD and Green). I suspect the Greens will take many of the ideological left which he purged and which leaves him with a problem – how to get them back! Local votes do not equate perfectly into GE results with. many reverting to their traditional vote when the media get to work! However we should see the Tories lose power, albeit to a coalition. Coalitions may become a thing of the future as factions of both the left and right polarise. Would the greens and LibDems enter into a coalition without PR? I guess that depends on the relative strength of the parties. Would it need a referendum? Could it be roled out piecemeal i.e. If Scotland or the South-West voted for it they could have it?

ELECTION RESULTS

Just gone 8am and 62 council results in, out of 230. First impression is that it is a bad result for the Tories. Labour are probably privately disappointed whilst the LibDems and Greens will be happy – although they always seem to do better in local elections. The Green Party is building an influence but until they are winning councils they stand little hope of a breakthrough in a GE.

3pm and nearly half results are declared. Labour up 222, Tories down 374, LD up 91 and Greens up 87. Very good results for last 2 – very bad for Tories and only good, not very good for Labour.

North Somerset results will be out later. North Somerset results = hung council with I think C-13, Lab-10, Ind 11, LibD 9, Green 7. My to councillors are now Green. Turnout was 32.5% which I assume is low?

I suppise the statistic of the share of the votes will be interesting as there is little evidence of tactical voting at this level.

Lessons to be learnt. Conservatives – things have to change to win back the middle ground. Their policies are too right wing for many – maybe they need to stop fearing the Reform Party (UKIP). Labour needs to get its policies out and aired widely to win voters, and stop fearing the tory right. LibDems are making headway but like Labour are basically an unknown quality so far. The Greens policies – I have no idea if they have them or not! They also need to capitalise on the huge environmental problems facing us all. Turnout is thjought to be lowish but not markedly down to be able to say that the voter ID had a major impact.

The RWPress will be able to bury the results in the Coronation farce.

Councils have had their budgets cut so have little room for manoeuvre even if a new party takes over. And do people actually care – only the Green Party put leaflets through the door (2) and the rest nothing. So what were people voting for? Democracy is only effective with participation by the majority.

POLICING THE CORONATION

11500 police and hundreds of soldiers in fancy dress to ensure no legal protests on Saturday. Policing will be robust and tolerance low. Do we live in a democracy? All this so. some privileged nonce can put a silly hat on, have magic oil placed on him – the whole thing is ridiculous.

Why do so many soldiers have the silly hats and red tunics? And why do so many ignoramious idiots give such time to it?

VOTING

Well I voted – ID shown but I got the impression that they did not know what they were doing! No doubt the Tories will be looking to America to find new ways to disenfranchise people less likely to vote for them, no expense spared. There were 3 people at the poll this morning instead of the usual 2, it also took longer. driving licence photos are notoriously bad and mine was 13 years old. It will be interesting to see if the turnout is substantially down. Voter confidence is politicans is very low anyway due to the slease and corruption and general uselessness of the Government and perceptions of Starmer are not much better.

CORONATION

The Guardian analysed the Daily Mails stats on yesterdays headlines and found them wanting! 39% were ardent Royalists whilst 37% regarded themselves as Republicans. Only the over 65 year olds were for the monarchy. And only 20% thought the monarchy would still exist in 50 years time.

Round here it is very mixed. Sandford only has one house with obvious bunting or flags at present. My road had street parties for the ? not sure what as I abstained! but bunting was across the road and the road was closed officially. This year nothing. However in Banwell just a mile away there are several houses with bunting, a crown on a cushion and a large flag. Greater apathy seems to be being showed to the elections tomorrow – only 2 posters up in gardens (both for the Greens!).

NATIONAL CONSERVATIVES

Should we be worried about the growth of the NatCons? They are anti-unions, anti-immigration and by default racist (although they claim not to be), fundamentalist Christian, anti-woke and anti-LGBQ. basically against everything that I believe the majority of British people believe in and value in our society. These groups are getting funding from America and their agenda is akin to that of the ERG and Tufton Street lobbies.

My belief above is based on surveys carried out across the developed economies that finds Britain to be one of the most liberal societies. GB News and other stations are promoting the anti-woke agenda – today the Sun states that a survey shows that the country is into-woke. However as the vast majority of people cannot define woke (even people phoning into radio talk shows to condemn woke cannot define it, let alone those for whom it is a passing comment or a term to cricise someone, I think we can just see that the Sun is trying whip up the culture war. The Mail joined in with a survey stating the the UK was rock solid behind Royalty even though aboiut a quarter were republican, and another quarter apathetic. A whopping 70+% stated that the constitutuinal monarchy needed reform! Rock solid!

CORONATION

Apart from those hoping to make money from it there seems little enthusiasm round here. No bunting or talk of street parties, and this is a tory area.

It is becoming an increasing embarrassment. Money spent distributing photos to schools and council offices, and now the nonsense about the oath of allegiance – they can fuck straight off. The Dail Fail says it will make a nice round £1billion for the country – I would love to see their maths on this sum. The Bank Holiday next week will have a variable impact on the economy. Spending is expected to rise by £500million which will help the economy of the entertainment and service industries, but there will be lost production in other areas. An extra day off makes people feel better, but coming a week after today’s is not the best timing, October would be better?

Surveys show that the young are increasingly apathetic towards the monarchy. Only 1 in 7 watched the Xmas broadcast, even though there was naff all else on! The spat between the heir and the spare and their old man and his missus is only of interest to the terminally insane!

Time for a debate on how to replace the monarchy with a Head of State – not easy, but France and Germany do it better than most. Selling off the castles and land could clear the national debt and could be sold with restrictions demanding public access!

RACISM AND PREJUDICE

First an apology to a good friend whom I thought was going over the top in his criticism of a Guardian cartoon yesterday. I was totally wrong and thank Andy for pointing out my ignorances. It has made me think about the whole concept of prejudice.

I would classify myself as untra liberal on issues of prejudice, whether it be race, religion, sexuality, disability or whatever. However my upbringing in middle England since the 1950’s has left some marks. I think I may be overly prejudiced against those whom I believe to have racist, etc. views. However I do have sympathy for those that have been cast aside economically by the loss of well paid manufacturing jobs in Northern mill and mining towns, and places like Dagenham (demise of Ford plant), etc.. I have less sympathy for those who have resorted to the welfare system as a choice. I may also be an inverted snob when it comes to the likes of JR-M and his ilk.

But racism – despite being brought up in tye era of “Til death do us part”, and Enoch Powell; a father who would not have considered himself as racist (but believed black people were less intelligent – mainly I believe because he never met those who had had a full education. I have never used the word nigger or wig although these were relatively common at school. So on colour I think I am OK! Albeit with a smattering of perhaps over compensation.

Religion – basically I believe religion to be a totally personal thing. So if I was to turn religious it would be as a Quaker. Christianity in the past was about power and influence as revealed by cathedrals and churches and even the suppression of the written bible and the promotion of Latin to deny the masses access. The pograms against religions across the world are abhorrent, whether in Myanmar, Gujerat, Gaza, or wherever.

So to the Jews. Has any group in history been more persecuted for their beliefs? I am trying to understand why? Unlike a black, brown or yellow person they do not stand out (sympathy with Dianne Abbot here!). Their religion has a few odd bits like kosher and the ways of slaughtering animals that people in the past would not have even noticed. Was it because they have often behaved like immigrants and maintained their religion and customs, whilst the rest of us have “gone with the flow”. Why was the Nazi venom against them so rabid? I honestly do not know! Vague concepts of being financiers is all I was either taught or absorbed. In this country we expelled all Jews in 1290 (18th July!) and when they were readmitted they were not allowed to be buried inside the city boundaries (Exeter). Many of our leading Banks were established by jews, SchroderWagg, Rothschilds, etc. and companies like Tesco’s. So is it jealousy and avarice that causes anti-semitism? I am not aware of ever knowing a jew.

Seeing the way Israel is behaving today (and I have been there and enjoyed a hippy travelling around experience with kibbutz visits). It was a nice country.

This is not easy to write. Of course the holocaust occured and millions of Jews and others were slaughtered. But that does not give them the excuse to gert sympathy for ever more. Is there not an aspect of being anti-semetic that is based on the concept of; “you can never criticise us again?” because of the holocaust – I guess I need to understand the hatrid that Jews across the centuries have created and endured. I think that when I was at school the whole WW2 bit was still to close to discuss (I 3as not a precoscious child – I do intend being a 70 precoscious person though!).

BBC

So the despicable right wing media have a go at Gary Lineker (again) for stating the blindingly obvious, that te BBC is too important to be controlled by political appointees. Will Sunak bow to the ERG and appoint Dacre from the Mail? Political party donors to whichever party should be banded. There will always be bias involved but an open and transparent process is essential. Perhaps a cross party government commottee should make the decision, and the interviews be transmitted. A similar proceedure could be followed in many other areas. It maybe expensive but democracy is under threat and its preservation is worth paying for!

LAWNS

Some facts -20% British Wildflowers are under threat. There are an estimated 23 million lawns in the UK. Bird’s-foot trefoil is a rich sources of food for 140 insect species. Cutting lawns prodces an estimated 80000 tonnes of CO2 – the equivalence of 10000 households.

So leave the lawn mowers in the garage and enjiy the buttercups, daisies, dandelions, yellow rattle and many others. I had evening primrose and chicory arrive last year. I am planting more herbs with blue and pink rosemary joining te 25 mint, 6 lavender, and 4 sage species.

No Mow May