The anti-vax movement has probably done enough to prevent a return to normal next year.
BREXIT
Time is running out. If a deal is reached there will inevitably be more red tape for trade, whether with Europe or anywhere. Unfortunately business’s do not know what this will entail. Chaos at the ports is likely. Even with a deal there will be new red tape, health checks, etc. I am sure the Daily Mail has already written the headlines blaming the EU for any and all problems. The problem is with those who voted to leave!
Why have deals not been done regarding crime and policing? And the same for education and science?
Brexiteers will be happy with new immigration controls – or will they? Universities will have fewer foreign students paying high fees, farms suffer labour shortages, NHS is still desperate for doctors and nurses (and care homes).
Food prices and possible shortages? Fresh food of which 40% comes from the EU may become subject to price rises (red tape costs) and shortages due to delays in ports.
Cars, planes and chemical industries are all expecting problems.
So am I being pessimistic? I don’t think so. We have left the EU. There will be more red tape. Deals with other countries are far and few between (and further away thinking about climate change). Any deal with the EU needs to be ratified by each country, and as we live in a democracy, by our parliament which has a limited number of sitting days before the Xmas break. Perhaps Johnson should move Dildo Harding to be in charge of the transition in January due to the world beating success of track and trace!
Sunday 15 November 2020
COVID-19
Vaccine may become available in a few weeks. Government estimates it could deliver 1 million per week. So about 3 months just to do the over 70’s (probably longer as others are important too!). I think the 1 million figure is determined by the logistics rather than availability – as more vaccines will become available.
And then to get to 70/80% ‘herd immunity’ is doubtful due to conspiracy theorists, covid deniers and general ignoramuses!
So we will need to live with our current way of life for the next 6 months at least.
CHRISTMAS 2020
The latest lockdown ends on 2 December. It will be another 2 weeks before full impact is known. The evidence of the figures from Wales is that the circuit breaker has had an impact, but not enough to relax.It does not really matter what the improvement has been, what is important is the R number, and the rate per100000. The numbers I have seen for Swansea and Cardiff are still much too high.
YOU CAN PUT LIPSTICK ON A PIG, BUT IT IS STILL A PIG.
Cummings and Cain resign/sacked. Both were advisors – the decision maker is the same.
10 Downing Street – CHAOS
Someone said they thought that Johnson was at least very clever! How wrong they are. A clever person keeps their friends close, but their enemies closer! The trouble for Johnson is that he cannot discriminate between the two factions. Surrounding himself with yes men was a particularly dumb move, as it deprived him of the superior intellect which would allow his “Duracell Bunny’ impersonations to, if not succeed, avoid the catastrophic failure they are having now.
COVID-19 WEEKLY STATS
Lots to comment on
27.09.2020 | 07.10.2020 | 23.10.2020 | 27.10.2020 | 5.11.2020 | 12.11.20 | ||||
North Somerset | 31 | 53 | 79 | 123 | 177 | 243 | |||
Cornwall | 20 | 31 | 29 | 45 | 47 | 65 | |||
Bristol | 46 | 143 | 228 | 328 | 350 | 428 | |||
Chelmsford | 41 | 63 | 68 | 102 | 91 | 94 | |||
Exeter | 283 | 341 | 175 | 154 | 128 | 146 | |||
Braintree | 42 | 58 | 60 | 50 | 58 | 94 | |||
Plymouth | 30 | 64 | 116 | 136 | 150 | 180 | |||
IoW | 10 | 17 | 24 | 30 | 41 | 78 | |||
Liverpool | 516 | 660 | 568 | 487 | 330 | 265 | |||
Manchester | 458 | 483 | 466 | 415 | |||||
Sunderland | 274 | 281 | 297 | 314 | 309 | 379 | |||
Newcastle | 445 | 456 | 298 | 294 | 284 | 376 | |||
Swansea | 397 | 279 | |||||||
Cardiff | 301 | 221 | |||||||
Glasgow | 286 | 316 | |||||||
Aberdeen | 41 | 36 | |||||||
Belfast | 317 | 226 | |||||||
Newry | 199 | 140 |
Analysis – you can do your own, but here is mine!
No idea why NS and Bristol. are rocketing up. Wales and NI have big drops, Glasgow still high, but Aberdeen low – due to geographic isolation – a bit like Cornwall, but there is rising significantly. IoW is a surprise as test and trace should be relatively easy there? Cities up north not doing so well although Liverpool has dropped a lot.
STUDENTS
If I have got this right students will be given a 6 day window to return to their homes ‘if they test negative’. This seems a bit like a dictatorship to me. Yes provide testing, especially for those returning to homes with vulnerable people. But if a student tests positive will they be forcibly quarantined? This would basically be imprisonment. What about the 80% of the population who are not self-isolating? If my kids were at university at the moment I would get them home now.
VACCINE NEWS
Pfizer/BioNTech announce that trials of their vaccine are looking very promising. But we will all need to be vigilant in the meantime. It will probably still not be available until early next year. Why could Johnson say this, instead of his relentless hyperbole. There are still many questions about the vaccine but it seems that the current situation will not be permanent. So calm down. A study by King’s College found that only 11% of people who should self isolate are doing so properly.
It is probably too late for the government to appeal for adherence to the rules. Dominic Cummings and Johnson’s dad ensured that the public does not take laws seriously. And is it really true that NHS workers cannot get a test unless they themselves have symptoms? A member of the family/household with symptoms does not count!