8.12 and still dark. Papers and shopping done before the rain comes. Exceptionally mild. Heavy rain predicted for here, possible floods. Vacuumed and stripped beds. Might be a cake making day.
MORE MIS-INFORMATION
All countries in Europe are suffering. This is a true statement. But look closer. We have had about 3 times as many deaths as Germany. We are about on par with Italy. Everyone is struggling, but most are taking more stringent measures than us.
EDUCATION – UNBELIEVABLY STUPID OR JUST PLAIN NASTY?
So Nick Gibb threatens Greenwich and Islington with prosecution for advising schools to shut. Maybe he sees himself as a General Haig figure? Surely each council should be able to make their own decisions – if not popular the councillors can be voted out next time. I think that is called democracy?
COVID _ ATTEMPTED ANALYSIS
I am fascinated by statistics – ever since failing the statistics part of my A Level Maths!
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
I was thinking about why a c-b a for Covid restrictions would not be valid.
So firstly a look at costs of a lockdown. presumably an economic figure can be calculated with reasonable accuracy (Unemployment and welfare costs plus loss of tax income). Add on reduced tax from firms with reduced capacity (e.g. Airlines). I am sure this is a considerable cost. Then there is the social cost of isolation and measures on mental welfare. And the benefits of a lockdown are much more difficult to calculate – lower costs for NHS. Maybe some small environmental gains. I would calculate the cost of Tier 3 for the whole nation at about £40 billion (back of an envelope).
Costs of opening up economy. Economically it is probably fairer to calculate the reduction in economic costs as there will still be restrictions. Costs of increased pressure on NHS and reduced capacity for other things can probably be calculated – I have no idea of the cost a covid patient per day? Or the economic cost of a death at different ages, or the impacts of long covid. Just as lockdown creates mental health problems, the converse is also true with people being worried about being outside with lack of observance of safety rules. The social cost of deaths is also un-quantifiable. From what we hqve4 seen so far it would seem that any opening up of the economy will be met with a strict lockdown soon after.
Whilst the economic impacts maybe retrieved in the long term, the social costs cannot. Which leads to the final point. Vaccines are on their way – so probably 4/5 months more of restrictions before a return to some sort of normality.
But also remember that the more we intrude into the natural world, the more likely it is that further virus outbreaks will occur (AIDS, SARS, BIRD FLU, etc.).
Maybe it is time to increase the aid budget in an attempt to reduce the discrepancies in wealth between countries. This would reduce the population explosion in Africa and South Asia. In turn this would reduce the environmental pressure on habitats. We should also invest in using our land more sustainably. I feel a new post coming on!
COVID STATS
Again interesting. Areas in Tier 3 with pub shut downs have all had significant reductions in cases. Eastern England has seen big rises – due to shopping? So locked own seems to work, but coming out of lockdown as in Wales seems to have made things worse! 2 weeks is obviously not enough. Should Bristol and North Somerset come down a tier – I would say no. Lets get the rate down to below 50 first.
BREXIT BETRAYAL
COVID RESTRICTIONS
I would have some sympathy for people demonstrating against the governments shambolic Tiers and restrictions (which do not seem to be being followed very seriously) if not one of the hundreds shown in photo’s was wearing a mask. Are they Covid deniers? Or just stupid – rates in Manchester (the protest shown which was attended by hundreds) of Covid infection remain high – people are dying (yes some are from other things that are not being treated because of bed occupancy by Covid patients.
the rate here has fallen to 126 just below national average – very positive. I guess other factors will determine whether we move down a tier. Bristol has also fallen markedly. So the restrictions appear to be working – where is the analysis?
RACISM IS ALIVE AND WELL IN BRITAIN
Shameful booing at Millwall yesterday as players ‘took the knee’. Radio 5 phone in confirmed that it was a preplanned event. One that wanted to get publicity for right wing views on migration. As such it was an attack on our democracy. With threats to carry out more demonstrations at other grounds.
BREXIT – RED TAPE BONANZA
The press seem to be adopting Governments negotiating tactic, i.e. agree with us or it is your fault negotiations break down. I suspect a deal will be done, albeit with provisos to be sorted out. However also of great concern is the fact that we are leaving the customs union. Red tape will abound with queues at ports. And cost of red tape and form filling will be paid by consumers.
