COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

I was thinking about why a c-b a for Covid restrictions would not be valid.

So firstly a look at costs of a lockdown. presumably an economic figure can be calculated with reasonable accuracy (Unemployment and welfare costs plus loss of tax income). Add on reduced tax from firms with reduced capacity (e.g. Airlines). I am sure this is a considerable cost. Then there is the social cost of isolation and measures on mental welfare. And the benefits of a lockdown are much more difficult to calculate – lower costs for NHS. Maybe some small environmental gains. I would calculate the cost of Tier 3 for the whole nation at about £40 billion (back of an envelope).

Costs of opening up economy. Economically it is probably fairer to calculate the reduction in economic costs as there will still be restrictions. Costs of increased pressure on NHS and reduced capacity for other things can probably be calculated – I have no idea of the cost a covid patient per day? Or the economic cost of a death at different ages, or the impacts of long covid. Just as lockdown creates mental health problems, the converse is also true with people being worried about being outside with lack of observance of safety rules. The social cost of deaths is also un-quantifiable. From what we hqve4 seen so far it would seem that any opening up of the economy will be met with a strict lockdown soon after.

Whilst the economic impacts maybe retrieved in the long term, the social costs cannot. Which leads to the final point. Vaccines are on their way – so probably 4/5 months more of restrictions before a return to some sort of normality.

But also remember that the more we intrude into the natural world, the more likely it is that further virus outbreaks will occur (AIDS, SARS, BIRD FLU, etc.).

Maybe it is time to increase the aid budget in an attempt to reduce the discrepancies in wealth between countries. This would reduce the population explosion in Africa and South Asia. In turn this would reduce the environmental pressure on habitats. We should also invest in using our land more sustainably. I feel a new post coming on!

COVID STATS

Again interesting. Areas in Tier 3 with pub shut downs have all had significant reductions in cases. Eastern England has seen big rises – due to shopping? So locked own seems to work, but coming out of lockdown as in Wales seems to have made things worse! 2 weeks is obviously not enough. Should Bristol and North Somerset come down a tier – I would say no. Lets get the rate down to below 50 first.

BREXIT BETRAYAL

A deal is oven ready. The best deal ever will be done, and other bogus comments made over last few years. Well we did a trade deal with Singapore which is basically the same as the EU one we already had. Factories stockpiling parts or shutting down due to lack/delay in supply.

COVID RESTRICTIONS

I would have some sympathy for people demonstrating against the governments shambolic Tiers and restrictions (which do not seem to be being followed very seriously) if not one of the hundreds shown in photo’s was wearing a mask. Are they Covid deniers? Or just stupid – rates in Manchester (the protest shown which was attended by hundreds) of Covid infection remain high – people are dying (yes some are from other things that are not being treated because of bed occupancy by Covid patients.

the rate here has fallen to 126 just below national average – very positive. I guess other factors will determine whether we move down a tier. Bristol has also fallen markedly. So the restrictions appear to be working – where is the analysis?

RACISM IS ALIVE AND WELL IN BRITAIN

Shameful booing at Millwall yesterday as players ‘took the knee’. Radio 5 phone in confirmed that it was a preplanned event. One that wanted to get publicity for right wing views on migration. As such it was an attack on our democracy. With threats to carry out more demonstrations at other grounds.

BREXIT – RED TAPE BONANZA

The press seem to be adopting Governments negotiating tactic, i.e. agree with us or it is your fault negotiations break down. I suspect a deal will be done, albeit with provisos to be sorted out. However also of great concern is the fact that we are leaving the customs union. Red tape will abound with queues at ports. And cost of red tape and form filling will be paid by consumers.

CHILDISH AND PATHETIC

Education minister Williamson chirrups about British scientists being the best in the world, and we got the vaccine out first. Look you moron it is not a race! We did not do it because of Brexit Door Matt Hancock. Britain is to cut emissions faster and further than others. I wonder what other cock ups are going to be revealed whilst they feed false positive press releases to the tory press.

COVID STATS

Not the full set, but interesting change – Bristol has dropped dramatically, is this a testing thing (it should not be as the figures are for a week), but they are down from 325 to 187 in a week, and North Somerset only down 209 – 173 (national average is 129). Does Bristol figure reflect pubs and restaurants, or home mixing? Or schools? Or scotch eggs!

BREXIT

Deal or no deal. To be honest there cannot be a no deal at this late stage without mayhem at the ports. Of course we all want a deal. Unfortunately I think it will leave everyone disappointed. Remainers like me are already disappointed, but the leavers will be too when they realise what compromises have had to be made to secure our security and trade in the future. Will Europe let Johnson have a minor victory over fishing whilst ensuring that on other issues the status quo will remain. It seems that the one thing that probably tipped the balance – migration – has become a non-issue! International travel has almost stopped, the few who make it across the channel are insignificant numerically. Sovereignty has been surrendered to cronyism and massive financial mismanagement of contracts.

And look what that odious little man called Farage is doing now! Is his new party called Covid Rules?

A QUESTION?

There are people on social media stating that the the restrictions proposed by government are curtailing freedom. Well Mr. and Mrs. Moron – what definition of freedom entitles you to endanger my life?