COVID STATISTICS 9 APRIL 2021

So what is the acceptable level of risk to live with? At the moment the best is Braintree with less than 1 in 10000 people getting it in the last week (although approx 50% of people with symptoms do not get tested, and another 50% maybe asymptomatic. So maybe we should alter some numbers, although that would over simplify – round here and in Lostwithiel I would guess that most people with symptoms would get tested (until the holiday season at least). Also taking North Somerset figures it means that 30 people have tested positive in the last week. Whilst they maybe young and not a NHS problem, it does indicate that the virus is relatively common in the area, but probably being contained by reasonably good social distancing and vaccines. Go to end of table for mathematical nonsense!

	27.09	5.11	19.11	5.12	7.1	21.1	4.2	15.2	22.2	23.3	9.4
N.Som	31	177	304	142	372	368	173	138	81	30	15
Cornw	20	47	90	25	324	258	157	81	42	15	12
Bristol	46	350	480	168	408	434	258	176	123	51	22
Chelm	41	91	150	109	1058	573	247	141	75	29	16
Exeter	283	128	168	102	226	244	61	37	73	22	11
Braintr	42	58	109	104	1160	552	303	154	81	29	9
Ply	30	150	225	63	221	327	118	63	49	35	16
IoW	10	41	78	29	916	647	226	122	50	17	15
Liverp	516	330	276	97	611	809	348	262	170	46	20
Manch		466	372	175	351	443	297	225	187	89	63
Sund	274	309	412	161	514	426	327	270	186	86	34
Newca	445	284	449	156	235	284	174	132	114	66	45
Swans		397	231	368	431	202	87	67	61	57	33
Cardiff		301	156	247	470	282	122	93	104	30	38
Glasgo		286	275	147	318	325	207	158	130	116	75
Aberd		41	58	61	279	236	80	50	30	33	30
Belfast		317	213	109	504	284	175	143	115	64	34
Newry		199	118	113	756	447	210	145	80	50	22
Sandf					320	189	248	71	59	0	0
W.Bod					287	437	337	262	137	0	0
Lostwit					308	381	417	63	81	0	0

OK – here goes. These figures are all guessed or estimated. Take Bristol at the moment; 22 in 100000 have caught the virus in last week. As stated above this figure might actual be 3x this – BUT probably 95% of these people are having to work, or just arrogant bastards who do not care about others. So we are down to a number between 1 and 3 per 100000. Then you are a person who does not go anywhere at risk of catching (but one can never be certain), so we probably have a number between 1 and 10 million chance of contracting the disease. This can then be reduced by the number of people individuals or family members meet daily/weekly. So my reckoning is probably 1 in half a million for people who are careful UNDER THE PRESENT LOCKDOWN. And then I think about UK pop of 75 million and realise I am way out of line here!

But a request for people better with stats than me to start being honest! 7 Jan the figures of infections in Braintree was horrendous – vaccination does not explain this – it has to be behaviour (and thus lockdown). And now, why are the figures in the north not down as low as in the south (London is as crowded as Manchester?