HOW LONG?

FFS can we get this debacle over? The Conservatives are faced with oblivion and the Times has said that governmment ministers are recommending a personal offensive against Starmer. So the election will get nasty – surely this is an insult to the intelligence of the British Public. I am sure that the DMail and DExpress and the Sun will weigh in with the sad journalists who should be job hunting! (What job could a failed and rabid political journalist get – possibly move to USA or Hungary?)

The crap press will possibly resort to royalty as often as possible, Megan is due for a roasting! The football has also made the front pages but this cannot be guaranteed as a distraction – especially with the behaviour of England followers. I am sure they will avoid all aspects of the climate crisis and environmental degradation.

WEATHER FORECASTS

It has long been the retort of the forecast sceptics to state ‘look out of the window”. However there is no doubt about the long term changes that are affecting us. Many tories are deniers – why is this not made more public? This spring was the warmest on record but Flaming June has not appeared yet! But it has certainly been the dampest I can remember, and for June cold. But this is where we need the experts to explain how the patterns of change are relentless.; Just because this June was colder than the last one, or even tens, it does not detract from the fact that our climate is wrming up. And with this different weather patterns occur. – and any change brings the need to adapt – something humans can be good at but generally dislike? The number of insects is massively down – swifts have been non-existent round here and I have seen no swallows or house martins.

Surely it is time to ban household chemicals that can be used in the garden with no licence? Farmers may need to adapt as they are having to do with climate change but can a householder not pull up a weed if they want to? My garden is the only haven along the road at the moment – I am hoping for lizards and snakes as well as hedgehogs and foxes! I have an insect hotel up but it is empty!

OK – Positives – the flame lily by the front door is, Well doubling back having hit the 8ft ceiling and has lots of flowers forming – post to follow. And the sun is shining – hopefully tomatoes will be on stream next week.

IN FIGHTING!

So whilst the RWP have been able to avoid the carnage that is the Conservative Party by concentrating on royalty, the troops are on manoeuvres! All the right wing fanatics are voicing raising their profiles – Patel, Braverman, Badenock, Mordaunt and Shapps all seem to fancy their chances -IF they keep their seats! I am sure Truss also fancies her chances!

However there is no one from the centre making any noise? Is this due to lack of funding and support from Tufton Street? Whether you agree or not, and I am not overseen!, Starmer took on the left, and Momentum, to regain the centre ground – Sunak and the wets seem to be giving in to the fascists? My analysis of the normal status quo – would be that the moderate Labour Party and a competent Conservative Party would have about 30% each, Reform would be able to whip up 10-15% with huge media coverage and by creating a febril environment on migration; LibDems will perhaps never recover from the coalition and university fees and Nick Cleggs disasterous leadership!; The greens will hover around 5% with zero press support and will hope to build on strong local candidates; The left wing of the Labour Party will be a hidden element for now.

Whilst the rabid Farage will be supported by his cronies in the media we wait to see what support he gets at the polls. Reform did not do well in the local elections – it is very much a a pressure group rather than a political party for all the bollocks stated by Farage. 18% in the polls is not huge – enough to cause considerable damage to mainly the Tories but also Labour, but the Lib.Dems and Greens should come through unscathed. This could produce some interesting geographical outcomes?

This is where I get really interested! Will the Greens take Bristol Central and hold on to Brighton? They may even take Norwich? Then the Lib.Dems for whom (Ed Davey has done a brilliant job!) could clean up in some of the seats in the south and south-west? Will university towns produce a strong Labour vote and overcome the apathy of the young? Will Reform sweep Lincolshire and the coastal margins on the East?

Then the area I have no idea on – the North. Will Labour regain the seats lost to the charlatan Johnson in the ‘Red Wall’? Will there be a disillusionment vote for Reform based on perceptions (correct) that Westminster does not give a shit about the poorer regions (recent Tory handouts are derisory and probably subsumed by feasibility studies by London companies! So it will be interesting to see how Sunderland votes! Will local government results be replicated?

Then – I apologise for not refering to the other nations in the UK – I am based in Somerest and receive the trash media available here! But Scotland and Wales have both had a long term party in power which, it could be argued is not good so one at a time.

Scotland – The SNP have held power for a long time and virtually wiped Labour last time out – the Tories had 1 or 2 seats, maybe? The SNP are in a bit of disarray with first Sturgeon and then Yousaf resigning in difficult circumstance – this should lead to their anhilation at the polls but Ian Blackford and then Stephen Flynn have done a brilliant job at PMQ’s. Scottish Nationalism is also here to stay! So I suspect that the SNP will do OK- although they will lose seats to Labour. The Tories could actually be obliterated even in the Borderlands as their 7 seats look vulnerable to the usual selfich move of Douglas Ross to stand for Westminster – schmuck! LibDems seem to do well in the outlying regions but have not found a real home in Scotland other than the Highlands and Islands (over 700!)

Wales – agin we have a Parliament which has been dominated by Labour – and despite weekly aspertions by the Tory grandees – it has withstood and been quite radical at times! There does not seem to be the same desire for independance as in Scotland perhaps due to huge migration from England way back! So will Plaid Cymru make any inroads? Doubtful due to their lack of radicalism? Lib.Dems could do OK in rural areas as will the greens, but not well enough! Will Reform be a winner in the valleys?

Northern Ireland – I am hesitatnat here as Andy is bit of an expert and local! So it has been totally ignored by the media – and therefore seen to be irrelevant! Personally I think there could be some surprising outcomes ? Will Sinn Fein get more seats, that they will not occupy! Will the Conservatives and their compatriots the DUP lose seats? NI has been a victim of Brexit more than the rest of us! – what will their voters say? The London media seems to not care? They might regret this oversight?

POLLS

So the polls show the tories down to 3rd place. Labour maintains its vote share. TBH I am rather surprised as I thought that Farage would eat into heir share (there are bigots on both left and right!). Maybe disgraceful assembly of motley candidates puts them off? There is also the fact that Farage is a one track pony with no clue on how to fix, basically anything – he just rattles away with max media coverage!

The Tories must be worried – they have no answer to F’s diatribe about migration – and they had no meaningful responce to Labour’s manifesto launch. Complaints abot a tax hike do not come close to the promised giveaway from their manifesto. Families can see how their tax burden has risen by £13000 since 2019, and everyone can see how public services have suffered. Complaints about the hike in private school fees is unimportant to most, as is their farcical plans for National Service. So the Tories are on the ropes – but they have a large war chest.

Labour basically said fuck all, but also has been stuffed by the tories incompetence and corruption. However their plans for the HoL and a retirement age of 80 is basically a joke (there are 12 over 90!). Revising all appointments made, or putting a 5 year limit on those nominated – with the possibilty of a re-election by the HoC? New nominations should be much more rigorous and spell out their expertise.

Basically (word of the day?) Labour have given the RWP nothing of substance to chunter about – and they are begining to realise that they are backing a big loser!

Gambling Commission has asked betting companies to investigate bets about election date choice – maybe there is more to be disclosed?

RED HAIR

I have just placed an order for red hair dye – only decision is whether to dye it for the 4th July or 5th July or both! I will post photo’s to prove that I have done it. Having doubts about my sanity? I am too – maybe I should stick to 5th and a tory result of 50 or less seats? Although that would maybe require a permanent dye! Any suggestions?

HOW I HATE THE BASTARDS

Sunak avoided any major cockups yesterday, he had his parliamentary private secretary to do that for him! Craig Williams, prospective candidate for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in mid-Wales, was revealed to have placed a bet on the election date 3 days before Sunak surprised everyone with the announcement. Williams refers to £100 bet as a little flutter – he should say that down at the local food bank? I just fucking hate them all and hope that they get voted out of existence on July 4th – oblivion.

This is just a further example of the moral vacuum that exists in the heads of the remaining conservatives. Whist railing against tje right it has been that a large number of Reform candidates are linked with fascist web sites. How many voters are so bigotted and stupid to vote for them?

FOR SALE

Has Rishi put the for sale signs up outside his house yet? He really does seem to want it to be all over – if fact that may have been why he called the surprise election in the first place. The latest gaffe is him stating that he too had had to go without during his childhood – he was deprived of a Sky Dish! Fuck me – life must have been hard for that 16 year old. I mean there were 3 million Sky subscribers back then so he was bemoaning the fact his parents chose not have one – yes they could have afforded it AND the fees at his priveledged public school. Poor little Rishi! I guess he will also claim that his parents worked hard to pay those astronomical fees, he has no clue on how ordinary folk work their socks off (often in more than one job which they hate) and yet cannot afford to put a healthy meal on the table.

I was priveldged to go to a state school and my parents worked hard and that enabled me to go on 2 school trips abroad. yes I do feel priveldged by this, I also had a mum who was a brilliant cook. Presumably poor spoilt Rishi thinks that a family today which choses to have sky to compensate for the lack of membership to clubs and activities , and OMG they have a large flat screen – basically the C has not got a fucking clue!

EUROPE ELECTIONS

So the far right made progress – on D-Day so why? Firstly maybe the left and centre need to stop flinging racism around so much? Is it racist to prefer or want to be surrounded by people with similar beliefs and culture? There was an attempt a while back to establish what constituted British Culture – I believe it failed miserably! However if we look at how the English language has attapted and incorporated new ideas and words without losing the essence of what constitutes English and we can get a notion of what society should be doing to adapt and include?

I think it is natural for people to be unsettled by change and to hark back to “old ways”. It would therefore be natural for people across the varied nations of Europe to reject traditional parties that are seen to be over welcoming to “foreigners’ or migrants. This will be especially true of countries with an ageing population like Hungary or where the opportunities for the young are perceived as being diminished or the numbers of migrants are perceived as being too high (Germany?) or where there is less integration (France?) or where there is economic/political atrophy (Eastern Europe).

So whilst I relish calling Farage a fascist little prat, but maybe I should be more wary of the ways he taps into peoples subconscious fears of change and particularly the unknown! I suspect therefore that people are not voting for fascism, but voting against the status quo – Brexit was the prime example of this! The Daily Mails ranting about the National Trust and references to slavery, and generally wokeness, are an attempt to heighten this fear of the different.

It is ironic that the typical thick working class boss will complain about foreigners coming over here to take “his/her” jobs (which they refuse to do! The NHS has a vast number of migrants and could not function without them, and yet the right wing media perpetuate the myths of migrants taking jobs and filling hospitals with patients and schools with students whilst claiming benefits. Can honesty be returned to the press and to politicians (Johnson totally ruined belief in honesty in public service – how do the newest politians recover this lost respect)?

So I have sort of described the problem (and the far right is a problem with no doubt) – obvs. I have no magic solution, but would return to my analagy of the English Language. Migration needs to be at levels where people can be assimilated into the traditional society without necessarily converting to whatever, but accepting, and being accepted by the status quo..

Perhaps the lessons from history in the past need to be learned anew – allowing areas of cities to develop as migrant ghettos (rather than hubs) has led in the past to pograms across Europe. Greater integration with the emphasis on positives (perhaps the right wing press needs to have to justify claims in court?) – or maybe defunded by foreign magnates? Honesty and discussion is essential and if that means calling out the likes of Murdoch and Jonathan Harmsworth, 4th Viscount Rothermere and Sir Paul Marshall; and holding them to account. A free press is essential and is the 5th estate on which democracy is based – but it, like the others can be subverted!

DEMOCRACY

Democracy is taking a beating at this election. Conservative leader Holden refuses to answer legitamate questions. Farage is rude to reporters who ask questions he does not like. Daily Mail publishes inti-semetic nonsense from Johnson. I do not see the press being objective in questioning all parties and holding them to account for their answers.

The tory £2000 tax claim – discredited is being repeated ad nausium, whilst t5he fact that tax has gone up by £13000 under the tories since 2019 has passed without comment.

Let us have honesty – tax will have to rise to provide quality public services. It is just a matter of where that falls. Tory HQ is also putting out bollocks about blackouts and public disorder with a move to zero pollution. What the fuck do they think will happen if we do nothing? Sea level rising and extreme weather will be blamed on? Green investment will provide cheaper bills in the long term. Locally Thatchers Cider (a bastion of conservatism) has invested in solar panels presumably to cut energy bills. Why should the poor not benefit? Who wants polluted rivers and seas (apart from foreign investors who care only for the profits.

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

I wonder! If the Tories really do get 20-25% of the vote, and if Reform make in roads, will the tories end up in a LibDem situation? A few million votes but only tens of seats? How will Conservative voters then feel about PR?

The only downside to PR is giving seats to Fascists like Farage. Maybe if he was wxpected to behave in a normal way his nasty views would be less appealing?

If the conservatives were for PR then a referendum would surely pass (leftish Labour voters would love to vote for Corbyn again).

A sunny Sunday morning here in Somerset. Everything is so lush this year.