Category: Politics

Latest stats. No real let up in increase in NorthSomerset and Bristol. Cornwall and Plymouth still increasing, as is Chelmsford. Wales and Northern Ireland both falling. National average is 223. Liverpool and Manchester are the only parts of the UK to have a falling infection rate since Locdown 2.0. The BBC web site seems to be slowing down? Government instructions?

The anti-vax movement has probably done enough to prevent a return to normal next year.

Time is running out. If a deal is reached there will inevitably be more red tape for trade, whether with Europe or anywhere. Unfortunately business’s do not know what this will entail. Chaos at the ports is likely. Even with a deal there will be new red tape, health checks, etc. I am sure the Daily Mail has already written the headlines blaming the EU for any and all problems. The problem is with those who voted to leave!

Why have deals not been done regarding crime and policing? And the same for education and science?

Brexiteers will be happy with new immigration controls – or will they? Universities will have fewer foreign students paying high fees, farms suffer labour shortages, NHS is still desperate for doctors and nurses (and care homes).

Food prices and possible shortages? Fresh food of which 40% comes from the EU may become subject to price rises (red tape costs) and shortages due to delays in ports.

Cars, planes and chemical industries are all expecting problems.

So am I being pessimistic? I don’t think so. We have left the EU. There will be more red tape. Deals with other countries are far and few between (and further away thinking about climate change). Any deal with the EU needs to be ratified by each country, and as we live in a democracy, by our parliament which has a limited number of sitting days before the Xmas break. Perhaps Johnson should move Dildo Harding to be in charge of the transition in January due to the world beating success of track and trace!

Very wet start to the day and a bit chilly. Making pasta. Football results yesterday all rubbish. Sunderland might have new owners which can only be good. A new team next? Chelmsford, Sunderland and FGR all lost at home!

Vaccine may become available in a few weeks. Government estimates it could deliver 1 million per week. So about 3 months just to do the over 70’s (probably longer as others are important too!). I think the 1 million figure is determined by the logistics rather than availability – as more vaccines will become available.

And then to get to 70/80% ‘herd immunity’ is doubtful due to conspiracy theorists, covid deniers and general ignoramuses!

So we will need to live with our current way of life for the next 6 months at least.

The latest lockdown ends on 2 December. It will be another 2 weeks before full impact is known. The evidence of the figures from Wales is that the circuit breaker has had an impact, but not enough to relax.It does not really matter what the improvement has been, what is important is the R number, and the rate per100000. The numbers I have seen for Swansea and Cardiff are still much too high.

Cummings and Cain resign/sacked. Both were advisors – the decision maker is the same.

Someone said they thought that Johnson was at least very clever! How wrong they are. A clever person keeps their friends close, but their enemies closer! The trouble for Johnson is that he cannot discriminate between the two factions. Surrounding himself with yes men was a particularly dumb move, as it deprived him of the superior intellect which would allow his “Duracell Bunny’ impersonations to, if not succeed, avoid the catastrophic failure they are having now.

Lots to comment on

	27.09.2020	07.10.2020	23.10.2020	27.10.2020	5.11.2020	12.11.20
North Somerset	31	53	79	123	177	243
Cornwall	20	31	29	45	47	65
Bristol	46	143	228	328	350	428
Chelmsford	41	63	68	102	91	94
Exeter	283	341	175	154	128	146
Braintree	42	58	60	50	58	94
Plymouth	30	64	116	136	150	180
IoW	10	17	24	30	41	78
Liverpool	516	660	568	487	330	265
Manchester			458	483	466	415
Sunderland	274	281	297	314	309	379
Newcastle	445	456	298	294	284	376
Swansea					397	279
Cardiff					301	221
Glasgow					286	316
Aberdeen					41	36
Belfast					317	226
Newry					199	140

Analysis – you can do your own, but here is mine!

No idea why NS and Bristol. are rocketing up. Wales and NI have big drops, Glasgow still high, but Aberdeen low – due to geographic isolation – a bit like Cornwall, but there is rising significantly. IoW is a surprise as test and trace should be relatively easy there? Cities up north not doing so well although Liverpool has dropped a lot.